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It's not a bet it is you misunderstanding what being transgender is. Human cognition does not work that way. How we perceive ourselves is not attributable to definite factors. It's coming up with an answer, that being trans is a product of biology or some early childhood environmental factor, and then working backwards in an attempt to discover what those things are. But being trans is not a product of those things.
There are scarcely any universal commonalities amongst trans people, and all of them have to do with how cisgender people and cisheteronormative society treats us. Some of us feel dysphoria and need hormone therapy and surgeries, some don't. Some feel like they've known their whole lives, some were perfectly fine until 2 months ago. Some people don't change much at all through transition, purely changing terminology and internal identity. Some people leave everything behind and become very different people after.
Gender variance is a part of human expression. Gender is an abstract concept that humans created. It's come to impact so many aspects of our lives but it is still a concept we made up and attached to reproductive biology. We would thusly need to examine why cisgender people identify as their gender and come up with some scientific reason why someone has a gender at all. As though Gender is a product of some scientifically measurable process. It isn't. It's a part of someone's personality. How and where it forms is different for everyone. Someone isn't "not transgender" because they don't fit some specific circumstances, being trans is purely an observation of the relationship someone has with their assigned gender. Someone is transgender if they do not identify with the Gender they were assigned at birth. Someone is cisgender if they do identify with the Gender they were assigned at birth.