People expect a lucky breakthrough like the Kharkiv offensive, but war at this scale is largely maths and to me it also looks like Ukraine are following their strategy. Many people are so accustomed to conflicts where one power has air superiority that they can't parse what happens when this is not the case.
this post was submitted on 05 Jul 2023
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Also there's the toxic dynamic of the 24-hour news cycle that calls itself "reputable" yet acts like a severe case of ADHD.
Volume of content - whatever it is - is the rule, no room for nuance.
And if the facts on the ground don't give them their flashy clickbait headline in a nice shiny wrapper, they get bored in a minute at most, zone out, get extremely fidgety, make their own headline up... and off they go to the next block, another five minute deadline for a narrative and clickbait headline.
It wouldn't be an issue for me, if more nuanced alternatives were as easily available. Tabloid journalism has existed for a long time, but nowdays it seems that it's the only form of mainstream news available. Though I'm not old enough to comment on if things were better eg. 25 years ago.
The current fast paced news environment wouldn't really be an issue, if more complex topics were available in easily digestable form. Currently one has to subscribe to dozens of different places to get reliable information on a broad range of topics.
The offensive has failed to achieve the balloned expectations that came from talking about it non stop for months.
It is a result of current media climate.
At least in my country (Finland), most news sites have completely dismissed this incremental aspect of the counteroffensive. They have focused mainly on theorizing a few possible scenarios of how the offensive will go (breakthrough or not?), and each small event has been assessed in excruciating detail. Everyone has been focused on a single tank column blowing up etc.
Personally this was the first time I came across an explanation for why a more massive attack hasn't yet been initiated. Perhaps I follow the wrong news sites?
That ist a solid analyis. I know nothing about war tactics, but this seems logically coherent (in contrast to many things surrounding this war lately). Thanks for posting!
(Double thanks for a working link, most Twitter links are broken for me currently)
Solid writeup. One thing to note is how hard Ukraine is focusing on attritting Russian artillery. Every day they post large number of enemy destroyed tube artillery, much higher than in previous phases of the war.
I am really amazed how they adopt proven tactics and modify them to the current situation and make use of the resources they have access to. Pretty ingenious and impressive. Godspeed to all Ukrainians fighting for their country!
Oh this was an excellent read thanks! Sensible rundown of where we are with justifications
That was a good read. Thanks for sharing.
It's also being reported that the Russian military is getting cocky because they also expected Ukraine to launch some massive 2 day counteroffensive. That didn't happen, so now they think their positions are really strong, and that they can't be displaced. Little do they seem to understand that there are tens of thousands of highly trained and well-equipped Ukrainians yet to enter the fight. They're in for a very nasty surprise.
Yes, I saw this now a couple of time since the invasion started. It is quite simple, the German mainstream media claims x, the opposite happens. Be worried Putzi!
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