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So... setting aside the source of this explosive for a moment (because there's a lot of speculation and no firm answer yet), can we all agree that there's no way this killed 500 people? The impact crater is about the size of a sewer manhole (there's one near it in the panorama image in the article).
The initial reporting on this was sensationalized to generate outrage and sympathy.
Estimation at best. They probably knew about 500 people were there, but had no idea of a body count.
That being said, a lot of people were sleeping in the grass next to the impact site, and some in the parking lot. They are estimating around 200-300 people. Some of the people in the grass were already dead.
But most were using it as temporary sleeping area due to the destruction of their home.
Last point I'll talk about is that this crater was not caused by an airstrike like Hamas claimed. And the hospital is not destroyed which they also claimed. And the ballistics show that it would have come from not Hamas, but the other faction in the region, the Islamic Jihad group territory.
It seems I owe a few people here an apology.
It seems I owe a few people here an apology.
It shows a strong character, moral compass, openness and social skills to publicly change your opinion/stance.
You have my highest respect.
No it doesn't or at least it shouldn't. That should be the norm.
triage. These people were at a hospital. The hospital almost certainly knew how many people were waiting on care
This is the thing I've been thinking about a lot. I definitely wouldn't have wanted to be anywhere near that explosion, but aftermath sure doesn't seem to line up with "500 people killed in hospital collapse caused by explosion". I don't even see a collapsed building in the panorama shot. Somebody's lying their ass off, and I have no idea who it is.
Based on the pictures in the article, there was definitely some damage to nearby buildings, particularly the roofs of the two buildings to the south. But "collapsed" seems to be sensationalism/clickbait. For that I would blame the journalists doing the reporting.
The other issue is that Hamas released that death count less than thirty minutes after the explosion. There's no way to get an accurate number that quickly.
A pretty plausible scenario is that they realized the fuck up, which probably did cause an extensive number of casualties given that the courtyard was apparently full of civilians, and immediately pushed a story about Israel catastrophically bombing a hospital in order to deflect attention, in hopes that western media would repeat the story without question, which was of course a correct assumption.
It's known that their hospital system has servere levels of over crowding, and the article states both that:
The video shows cots, blankets, and other personal belongings on the grassy area. Taken together, these two videos indicate that it was likely occupied by people who were resting or sleeping there at the time of the explosion.
And that:
Other images from the parking lot of the hospital show widespread damage to vehicles in the parking lot, including one that was flipped over onto its roof. Another vehicle nearby shows signs of extensive damage, while others show evidence that they were engulfed in flames.
...an over crowded space, babies in cots, with an explosion large enough to flip a car, near one of the few areas with grass soft enough to sleep on.
Plus a fire.
Plus due a hospital low on supplies, low on water, in need of emergency power... Could probably kill hundreds, and cause the death of more.
If the hospital had some structural damage as well. Could probably do plenty of killing. The article doesn't nominate a number, so I can't speak to your source on that.
They seem to be, rightfully, taking their time to piece together the details. A short update is up now in this article with the details that they HAVE confirmed. It confirms the direction/location but not the cause
Ignore the bot comment, it pulled the background context but not the important bits.
Damn that's some good reporting
Bellingcat is usually pretty damn good reporting.
We definitely need some independent investigation, knowing the track record of both sides isn't exactly pristine.
Bellingcat is on it.
Bellingcat is the only group anyone should trust with situations like this.
Why?
They have an insane track record of finding the truth.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
The ground surrounding one side of the crater shows a cone of scarring and pitting, consistent with the explosion of a munition at this site.
Objects within this cone appear to have suffered extensive damage, including a fence which was largely destroyed by the explosion.
As noted by Marc Garlasco, a Military Advisor at PAX for Peace’s Protection of Civilians team, the impact point does not appear to be consistent with the 500, 1000 or 2000-pound bombs used in Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs).
A video posted on Twitter on Tuesday night showed a grassy area adjacent to the hospital covered with dead bodies.
In a press conference Wednesday, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel Hagari outlined their analysis of the blast and why they believe it came from inside Gaza.
The World Health Organisation said the Al-Ahli Arab Baptist Hospital was operational and patients, health care workers and internally displaced people were sheltering there when the explosion occurred.Bellingcat will continue to monitor the latest war in Israel-Palestine, with the aim of documenting civilian harm.
The original article contains 524 words, the summary contains 175 words. Saved 67%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
https://twitter.com/GrantSmithEllis/status/1714399186295111815?t=wxkjKFCi8k2oZ0FTiwxV1g&s=19
10-minute video captured by AJArabic around the time the al-Ahli hospital was hit.
As per @Ted55643099:
Explosions on this video: (0:19) hospital. (0:16, 4:25, 4:49) behind and to the left of the hospital. (5:33, 5:56, 9:26, 10:46) behind hospital, most likely the same place. (9:38, 10:51) to the right of the hospital outside of the frame, likely the same place.
Not sure how reliable it is, but it seems like all these strikes are from the same munition class given the magnitude of the initial explosive flash.