The United States is long overdue for a massive political realignment. The Democrats and the Republicans are indistinguishable when it comes to most policy issues, and also tend to court the same groups: suburban conservatives of various kinds. Where they differ is social policy, and the Democrats make their greatest efforts to make sure that difference is in name only. A lot of conventional wisdom on how people tend to vote is up to be challenged.

Such as the position of latin americans, who were often assumed to be too much of an other to be courted by the Republicans, but to whom the Democrats make no real offers besides a lot of patronizing assumptions that fly in the face of a group that skews more religious than average. Another is the distribution of populations - what matters most in these polarized times is the urban/rural divide. However communities across the country are being upended by the risks associated with climate change, deindustrialization, inflation and so on. People are moving. States are changing and the corruption of gerrymandering might not be able to stem the tide either way.

I'm still leaning that this election being a 50/50 by no merit of any living soul in Washington DC. But I wouldn't discount a landslide either way due to even greater amounts of people staying at home, or due to the aging milennial demographic gaining an importance that their grandparents once had, or whatever.