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Biden Has Lost Little Swing-State Support Following First Debate
(pro.morningconsult.com)
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this post was submitted on 07 Jul 2024
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politics
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I would bet actual cash money that Michigan is gonna be red and that Biden is most definitely not leading the state.
I don't even see him trying to campaign here because SE Michigan will go out of their way to overrun his campaign with protests even if he tries to hide in the Ford plant like the last 2 DNC candidates did.
Michigan isn't the problem. Pennsylvania is the problem; there's an extremely narrow path to victory for Biden if Trump wins Pennsylvania. Basically without PA, they need to flip Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, or Kentucky. And then they need nearly every other state that's up for grabs.
Doubt he'll win Pennsylvania, he's got that whole settlerman problem there.
I'm not sure Pennsylvania is one of those states. In May 2% of registered voters said the Palestinian Genocide was their most important issue. When asked directly about the issue most Democrats felt partial to the Palestinians, but Independents skewed Israel.
So from a party perspective in this particular state; the people they can depend on will likely vote Democrat anyway and they're more likely to pickup votes by continuing to ignore the mountain of evidence against Israel.
Lol Biden won the state by 1.2 points in 2020 so automatically losing a whole point of people who view Palestine as their most important issue probably is good, right? And you've got fetterman out actively telling the base to fuck off.
Hey look I don't care, good luck to you people lol
Those numbers don't rise that high if he's picking up 2 independents for every dem that stays home. And that 2% number is split as well. Michigan is the real problem, he must get PA, but without MI it's still a hard road to victory.
Where have I heard that math before lmao
Well yeah that obviously hinges on him picking up independents.
I think you vastly overestimate how much the average Democratic voter cares about the Palestinians
😢
He's only partially wrong. Biden really needs Michigan. and that's the state with a large demographic of people personally impacted by the genocide. If Trump takes MI then the Dems are back to needing Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. And Arizona democrats skew very progressive. Like a leftist reactionary movement to the previous Republican regime. In the same may poll I reference above, where Pennsylvania doesn't really care, Arizona voters were very vocal about not caring. Which means they probably plan to strategically vote for Biden while trying their hardest to ignore the issue. But some genius GOP operative is bringing that issue up there, I guarantee it.
This is part of the reason I was pushing so hard for us to pressure Biden on the issue. If he used the Leahy Law properly he'd have plenty of cover and it would be fine. Now he's stuck with this because many people would see it as a completely political move now and it would hurt more if he took any action on it now.