electoralism

Forget Swing States. It’s These 21 Microcommunities That Could Decide the Election.

In almost every presidential battleground state, polling suggests something close to a dead heat between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. In these states, there are key geographic voting blocs that could determine the outcome.

The best way to tell how a state will vote is to build from the precinct level up, to dig into neighborhood data and to look at the differences in demographics and voting patterns across those precincts. Using this approach, I assembled more than 100 political microcommunities in the battleground states.

Think of them as pieces of a puzzle representing distinct political and social trends that can help us understand the 2024 election. For Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump, each could be a crucial building block in a winning swing-state coalition.

I selected four states that offer a regional and demographic variety of the precinct-cluster puzzle pieces. Within each, there are opportunities for both candidates.