electoralism

538 isn't anything special, its only major claim to fame was being less wrong in 2016 but since Nate Silver left and took his model with him that's not a factor anymore. But for what it's worth, pretty much all models are showing similar predictions, including Silver's.

Personally I place a good amount of stock in the Economist prediction model on the logic that it's a magazine for rich people whose money may be affected by the election so they have incentive to be accurate