electoralism

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republicans likely to sweep (hexbear.net)

submitted 1 week ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Like I said, they're not dependent on each other, they're dependent on the same thing.

I hate to sound like big-yud but Bayes' theorem is really all you need here: in statistics those 2 things have the same effect on the probabilities. I agree with you that there isn't a causal relationship between the outcomes in each race and the causal relationship is to the voter preferences upstream in the chain of causality, but P(Rs winning House|Rs win presidency) > P(Rs winning presidency) regardless of what causes what.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 week ago

I have little to no stats knowledge so I'll defer to you even if I don't get it blob-no-thoughts