Death to NATO

I can very much relate. When the war started, I expected things to develop a lot faster than they did. The big lesson for me was that everything happens a lot slower than you'd think it would. In a way it's a testament to human ingenuity. People running Europe continue to find ways to kick the can down the road and cling to power. It won't last forever, but they certainly surpassed my expectations.

While understanding underlying dynamics provides us with a powerful framework for comprehending how the system evolves, predicting precise details is effectively impossible. In this way, there is always room for uncertainty and surprise. A good analogy is to think of a river flowing downhill. The overarching principle is clear: gravity pulls the water downwards, carving a path of least resistance. Yet, the exact specifics of the river’s course, the meanders, the rapids, the waterfalls, are determined by a myriad of different factors, including the terrain, the volume of water, and even the weather. While we can anticipate that the river should flow in a particular direction, we cannot foresee the precise shape of its journey.

I just wonder if some sort of bidding war there will start.

Unfortunately in that sort of scenario China does not have the upper hand. Of course it has one big advantage over the US which is its overwhelmingly superior productive capabilities, but the US has two things going for it:

Firstly they control the dollar and they can print as much of it as they need to bribe pretty much anyone. And sure without productive capacity all of that is just worthless paper but the problem is that China still accepts that worthless paper in exchange for its physically tangible and actually valuable goods.

And the second, which i think gets overlooked a lot in Marxist geopolitical analyses, is that the US ruling class is fanatical whereas China's is pragmatic. Someone who is irrational and fanatical makes more mistakes but they also are also always going to be willing to stake more and go harder than someone who is being reasonable and cautious. This factor should not be underestimated.

For all the great things that can be said about the current Chinese leadership, which i do think still genuinely believes in socialism, the one thing they don't have to the same extent as they did in the Mao era is revolutionary zeal; the willingness to take big risks, make any sacrifices necessary, and the confident belief - an almost religious-like faith if you will - that you are bound to win. This is something the USSR had during the Great Patriotic War, we can see it today in the Axis of Resistance, and we also see it in the liberal fanaticism of the western imperialists, but i just don't see it in China. But idk maybe this is all bullshit and i'm just being idealistic here...

I think Turkey might be forced to pick a side because the west traditionally can't cope with countries being neutral. I expect Turkey will end up in BRICS in the end however.

Meanwhile, the US can try to step it down, but the reality is that the AFU is already collapsing with the current level of support. The US is basically the only country that's actually capable of providing any meaningful support as well. If that starts drying up then the collapse will accelerate. Even with the current level of support, the real issue as even western media now admits is manpower. It doesn't matter how many weapons make it to Ukraine if there's nobody left to use them.

It's very important to understand that Russia is fighting a war of attrition. The goal is to grind down the AFU until it implodes. There is nothing the west can do to stop that short of NATO putting boots on the ground. I can't really see that happening.