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I don't fully disagree, although in this case I think it was just a pure fuck-up based on unreasonable over confidence.
The democrats lost the House because they constantly run to the right (and they keep doing it!) or even if they keep messaging more left-ish policy they never act on it.
They lost "always blue" seats in NY and CA to republicans because they just ASSUMED people would always vote blue there even when democrats consistently fumbled the bag... often times, seemingly on purpose.
The four thousand year old racist husk at the lead of the party has made the most limp wristed, halfassed gestures towards doing shit that he only halfass promised in the first place to placate dems further to his left. It's insane they think people will keep voting AGAINST the literal Nazi party forever when the alternative is voting for the Diet Nazi party. You would think some degree of self interest (suppose there's a galaxy of conspiracy to examine there) would kick in at a certain point, but goddamn.