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Ooh, someone finally realized current polling is way off from the actual results at the voting booth.
The #GOP finally caught the car, now they are getting pulled under the tire.
I'm looking forward to the GOP joining the Know-Nothings in the trash bin of history.
The number is 10k per day.
I did the math a few years ago because I couldn't find anyone else who had published it. This is rough and IANAM (mathmagicman).
Every single day 8,000 boomers and above die, and 12,000 people turn 18 and those numbers are actually accelerating. If you use existing data to estimate conservative/liberal and likely voters within those groups it works out to a delta of 10,000 per day on a national scale. That's 5,000 votes switching every single day. That might not seem like alot. Because it really isn't. Out of 155 million votes cast, 10,000 is .006 percent. But here's the thing. It's cumulative. And it just doesn't stop. It is relentless. it's 300k a month, 3.6 million per year. And that pace is accelerating. Between 2020 and 2024 it's a 15 million vote difference. By 2028 it's 30 million. It used to be that people age into conservatism. But that is not happening with millennials. The demographics are changing, and changing quickly. The most conservative group in the country is dying. While the most liberal group is rising.
We just have to hold on to democracy for a few more years. This will all be behind us. Another 10k today.
This isnt even factoring in the mass extinction event that was the covid pandemic. At first it hit everyone equally but once the vaccine came out and they decided to die on their stupid little hill the numbers skewed disproportionately towards the unvaccinated being the ones impacted in subsequent waves. We have confirmed this now in a few studies and I saw it first hand working in the emergency department.
That absolutely accelerated the trend you're describing and I think they are just now realizing that the maga train is careening towards its demise and their bold strategy to worship a conman is going to cost them everything.
This year will be the final deciding factor on that. If we can rid ourselves from trump we can prove that there is still hope for this nation. I'm not so naive to think that there won't be a new conman to take his place and we won't find ourselves in an endless fight. But if we can't stop trump and he somehow gets back in power then there's absolutely no hope for this nation.
I completely agree. And although some polls indicate Trump strength, Biden hasn't begun yet. The campaign hasn't started. When it does, I really think it's a clear Trump defeat.
And that doesn't even take into account how polling landlines introduces a huge sampling bias. I have my cell phone set on do not disturb unless you're in my contact list. Most tech savy people don't answer unknown numbers.
They know it. The powers that be realize Trump is unelectable.