chapotraphouse

Zero chance of recession this year.

Here's the explanation. Most recent recessions have been self-manufactured through credit expansion and rapid deflation through interest rate rises. Right now they're holding steady. If they raise interest rates this year, there would be a chance of recession. But here's your explanation of why they won't raise rates this year: the fed's job is to be seen as a non political actor. If they manufacture a recession in an election year, they come off as favouring the challenger, instead of the incumbent. So, they're not going to meddle with interest rates this year.