this post was submitted on 19 Apr 2024
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The best option is that Russia starts extending its nuclear umbrella over the Middle East. I imagine it wouldn't be a blanket protection, but a ratcheting over time. Russia already has a good enough reason to do so for Syria as Syria currently hosts Russian nuclear weapons. Then, Russia could extend the umbrella over Iran to cement its alliance and commitment to preventing nuclear proliferation.
From that, it forces one of three options: Bibi doesn't launch, the Israeli government collapses when Bibi tries to give the order, the USA gets rid of the program.