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Negotiated outcome most likely result of Russia-Ukraine war, major poll says (www.theguardian.com)

submitted 1 week ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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In thinktank’s survey of 15 European countries, few respondents believe Ukraine can secure an outright victory

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[-] [email protected] 8 points 1 week ago

Ohhhhh a poll! Oh man, well. Done deal then. Innit.

[+] [email protected] -6 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

To answer these questions, ECFR conducted an opinion poll of 19,566 people in 15 countries in the first half of May 2024 – the period prior to the European Parliament election. source

[-] [email protected] 1 points 1 week ago

Jesus Christ they got 20,000 people to answer poll questions in two weeks?

. . . What was the methodology? Was it, like, at a football match everybody who agrees . . raise your hand? Was it “like if you agree” on Telegram? Agggh. Okay I’ll go look.

[-] [email protected] 6 points 1 week ago

Okay here’s the Methodology section:

Methodology

This report is based on a public opinion poll of adult populations (aged 18 and over) conducted in May 2024 in 15 countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, Great Britain, Greece, Italy, Poland, Portugal, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and Ukraine). The total number of respondents was 19,566.

The poll was conducted online by Datapraxis and YouGov in the Czech Republic (9-16 May, 1,071 respondents), France (9-20 May, 1,502), Germany (9-17 May, 2,026), Great Britain (9-13 May, 2,082), Greece (1-16 May, 1,093), Italy (9-17 May, 1,036), Poland (9-23 May, 1,550), Portugal (9-20 May, 1,070), the Netherlands (9-15 May, 1,014), Spain (9-17 May, 1,508), Sweden (9-23 May, 1,026), and Switzerland (2-15 May, 1,079). It was conducted online by Datapraxis and Alpha Research in Bulgaria (9-23 May, 1,000), and online by Datapraxis and Norstat in Estonia (6-21 May, 1,009). In all these countries the sample was nationally representative of basic demographics and past votes.

In Ukraine, the poll was conducted by Datapraxis and Rating Group (7-12 May, 1,500) via telephone interviews (CATI) with respondents selected using randomly generated telephone numbers. The data was then weighted to basic demographics. Fully accounting for the population changes due to the war is difficult, but adjustments have been made to account for the territory under Russian occupation. This, combined with the probability-based sampling approach, strengthens the level of representativeness of the survey and generally reflects the attitudes of Ukrainian public opinion in wartime conditions.

Some of the questions were not asked in Great Britain and Switzerland. The questionnaire in Ukraine included several questions that were not asked elsewhere. Overall, the graphs in this paper display data for all the countries in which the respective question was asked.

Which - says who did it, but except for “online” or in the case of Ukraine “random telephone numbers”, it doesn’t describe the Method of the . . y’know, the Ology. So. “online”. Like, click on an Ad at stormfront.com, or -?

Anyway here’s the numbers:

[-] [email protected] 1 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Thanks for posting the table, much more informative than the article.
IDK if I have a browser problem? But that table was not visible to me reading the article.

[-] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago

That was from the source pdf linked in the article, fwiw. It also didn’t have any methodology notes, it was just results.

[-] [email protected] -3 points 1 week ago

There’s a lot of info and graphs, but it’s interesting:

The poll was conducted online by Datapraxis and YouGov

[-] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago

Yeah, it’s just that polls are notorious for saying something grand, and then when you dig into it it’s always some bizarre, unbelievable process with a minuscule percentage of the population.

As we see, the article doesn’t say how they did it.

If we broadly take the population of Europe and Ukraine to be 788 million people total, this survey of 20,000 people would be 0.002% of the population.

I don’t think that’s statistically significant. By, well, a lot.

But it is an interesting headline.

[-] [email protected] 1 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

It is, population size has essentially no effect on statistical significance of a sample (other than amplifying it as you start to sample most of the population). 20,000 people is massive and will give you sub 1% confidence ranges. The difficulty is ensuring you have a representative sample (no one does) and correcting for the biases you do have in your sample.

Do you really think the huge polling industry is unaware of basic statistics and your dividing the sample size by the population would come as a revaltion to them?

[-] [email protected] 0 points 1 week ago

I think the huge polling industry is based on, and a provider of, multiple lies.

I think the average person, who will incorporate polling headlines into their worldview, is unaware of the enormous differences.

[-] [email protected] 0 points 1 week ago

Do those lies include tricking professional mathematicians into thinking their lies are actually formally proved mathematics?

[-] [email protected] 1 points 1 week ago

No. The math is sound. The premise is flawed.

[-] [email protected] 0 points 1 week ago

So why did you say that 20,000 was far too small a sample for Europe if you accept the maths which shows that that size sample gives <1% margin of error for that sample size?

[-] [email protected] 0 points 1 week ago

From your link:

In practice, the sample size used in a study is usually determined based on the cost, time, or convenience of collecting the data, and the need for it to offer sufficient statistical power.

You see how the elements listed there (cost, time, convenience, and ‘sufficient statistical power’) are more qualitative measurements and not known constants? (I mean, whenever it starts with, “In practice . . .” you know it means “in a perfect system devoid of unknowns”, or in other words “ideally but you’ll see it doesn’t work exactly like that” )

What is the sufficient statistical power for sampling Europe? 0.002%? Two thousandths of a single percent? That greenlights your findings? Okay. I disagree. Polling companies don’t disagree because in this case, as you noted, 20k is an amazing sample size. The cost and time for that - not to mention the convenience! - alone is amazing . . for an opinion poll. No doubt they’re proud, that’s a fine achievement for an opinion poll. Now: did they measure what they set out to measure? I doubt it, but since the methodology given is the single word “online”, I remain skeptical.

And saying “but there’s math in it!” is exactly why I’m skeptical. That effectively means nothing, and it's used to validate whatever conclusions were presented. “We ran the numbers, and . . ” can mean very specific things, and in some contexts it is good enough to move on to the conclusions. Polls trade on that, but they don’t deserve to.

[-] [email protected] 4 points 1 week ago

Oh good, we all know how much Putin cares about European polling.

[-] [email protected] -4 points 1 week ago

I don’t. How much does Putin care about European polling? Or was that just a rhetorical aside to sway public sentiment?

[-] [email protected] 4 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Sorry... you don't know how much Putin cares about polls of people in countries he doesn't like in regards to what he should be doing?

Was that a serious question?

[-] [email protected] -3 points 1 week ago

Oh, it was facetious. I thought you had information about Putin’s motivation.

[-] [email protected] 1 points 1 week ago

Sorry. Poe's law and all, it's hard to tell sometimes.

[-] [email protected] -2 points 1 week ago

No, my bad. Sorry I didn’t catch that.

[-] [email protected] 3 points 1 week ago

Negotiations can mean many things.
The only acceptable outcome is that Ukraine gets all its territories back including Crimea.
Then we can negotiate on maybe lifting some of the sanctions. There will probably also be negotiations on reparation for Ukraine.

Even in case of a total Russian defeat, there will probably be negotiations regarding many issues.

this post was submitted on 03 Jul 2024

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