Technology

He's being doing nothing but selling his Nvidia stock so I'm pretty sure he knows it is overvalued

He buys another leather jacket, as a treat

I know he’s in a very extreme level of this but all of us can look at people with less than us and decide how we feel about them. It’s never even occurred to me to wonder if I deserve my paycheck - it’s just mine.

Before you say it’s not the same, you don’t have his extreme, extreme wealth, remember that some people have to start their days walking several miles to fill some plastic bottles with bad water so they can wash the underwear of the guy who rapes them.

Strategy unclear, I'll still Bogle HODL.

Debt, both on-the-books and anticipated.

Intel's investments in the Titanium chipset have effectively dead-ended. They can't get below 7nm efficiently. Meanwhile, you've got companies in Taiwan, Korea, China, and Japan breaking into the 3nm and 2nm scales. To catch up, they're looking at hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars in technical debt.

Yes, they can keep churning out existing processors at huge profits in the moment. But the face value of these processors plummets with every new step in Moore's Law. This amounts to asset depreciation, which means Intel's value is heavily overstated on the basis of asset cost alone.

I won't argue that NVIDIA is overvalued. But I think the degree to which they are overvalued is often misattributed to speculation and avoids the real specter haunting the company... competition. NVIDIA's market dominance and the escalating demand for their technology means the sky really should be the limit for their growth. Demand for AI processing is at the forefront of these expectations. But a rival manufacturer capable of cutting into demand for their units would dramatically undermine their profitability.

Its the same with firms like Microsoft and Facebook and Boeing. So much of their dominance is predicated on the theory that people will never leave these walled gardens and their margins being enormous purely because they controlled a critical commodity/patch of technical real estate.

There was - incidentally - another enormous company that seemed to have the market cornered in its industry and got complacent with its R&D and long-term investment strategies... Intel.

Fear mongering articles making it seem like they are doomed and will go bankrupt after bad quarterly results were announced. Articles were probably sponsored by rich people wanting to buy Intel stock for cheap. But they won't go bankrupt because the US gov./army need Intel to stay relevant against China, and Intel is basically the only American company that both designs and fabs their own processors and that is still relevant.

That and the fact that Nvidia is over valued (they are valued at 30x the value of their assets).

In the same way that a normal person can have a net worth less than the value of the house they own: debt and illiquidity.

Intel have shown signs of catching up by putting out a better iGPU than AMD's latest and greatest for laptop chips in certain games and most compute tasks. They've also put out one of the best laptop chips last month, they consume next to nothing while still having decent performance but go on I guess

It's BS that you can borrow against it. If he did sell it the valuation would drop.

"unrealized gains" that you can somehow live off of indefinitely.

Elons everything comes from having overpriced tesla stock as collateral

they do compete, its just users weigh DLSS and Raytracing far more than they should, and devalue VRam in long term situations

for example a 7900 GRE cost about the same as a 4070, but more people will buy the 4070 regardless

Eh, I got an AMD GPU somewhat recently and it meets all my expectations. I'm not too interested in RTX or compute, and they have a really good value on raster performance.

Exactly. At the very least, he could go get a margin loan at relatively low cost (like 5%) compared to the tax burden of cashing out (20% or more). And that's just using publicly available numbers, a billionaire can get a lot cheaper loans than that.