this post was submitted on 28 Oct 2024
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Image is from this SCMP article.

Much of the analysis below is sourced from Michael Roberts' great website.


Japan's ruling parliamentary coalition, consisting of the LDP (purple) and it's junior coalition partner Komeito (in light pink) have lost their ruling majority. They have ruled post-war Japan for almost its entire history. The LDP is currently led by Shigeru Ishiba after Kishida stood down due to a corruption scandal, and ties to the Unification Church.

While geopolitical factors (over the cold war between the US and China, etc) may have played a role, by far the biggest reason for this result in the poor economic conditions over the past few years. Inflation has risen and real wages have fallen, with little relief for the working class via things like tax reductions. While inequality in Japan is not as extreme as in America, it is still profound, with the top 10% possessing 60% of the wealth, while the bottom 50% possess just 5%.

Shinzo Abe previously tried to boost economic performance through monetary easing and fiscal deficits, while Kishida ran on a "new capitalism" which rejected Abe's neoliberalism and promised to reduce inequality. Nothing substantial has resulted from all this, however, other than increasing corporate wealth. Innovation continues to fall, and domestic profitability is low, resulting in decreasing investment at home by Japanese corporations. Labour productivity growth has only slightly picked up since the mid-2000s and is falling again. The rate of profit has fallen by half since the 1960s, and Japan has been in a manufacturing recession - or very close to it - since late 2022. In essence: there is no choice but between stagnation or decline.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 30 points 1 day ago

No really news but I found a twitter thread showing some good old cringe of the early days of the urkaine war.

https://x.com/ripplebrain/status/1851364361186787416

[–] [email protected] 65 points 1 day ago (2 children)

the one to doom posts the reverse bloom meow-bug

ancient plinky proverb

[–] [email protected] 21 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

2nd point is one of those things that these Western blob morons never think about when talking about all the assassinations they are going to do. Killing your target is only half the battle, and frankly the less difficult part. Understanding who is going to replace them is often much more difficult to forecast or control. Nasrallah was a politician and a diplomat. Go far enough down the pecking order, and they are going to start running into guys who were in Syria fighting ISIS and "moderate rebels" for 10 years who probably a lot less squeamish about undertaking more violent tactics to resist Israel and the West.

[–] [email protected] 36 points 1 day ago (11 children)

Glad that Qassem is sticking to the plan. There was a lot of buzz that Hezbollah was about to accept a ceasefire without any Israeli ceasefire in Gaza (which would directly go against Nasrallah). That is obviously not happening, given Qassem saying they haven't even considered any of the many Israeli ceasefire proposals.

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[–] [email protected] 57 points 1 day ago (4 children)

if i were claudia sheinbaum i would simply use the capitalists' newfound love for "nearshoring" to do a little dengism (somebody who knows about material conditions in mexico please tell me why this wouldnt work)

Death to America

[–] [email protected] 31 points 1 day ago

For Dengism to work you need the capitalists to be desperate enough for your markets that they'll agree to the terms that Deng put forth in the interest of domestic Chinese capital. Mexico does not have the bargaining power.

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[–] [email protected] 58 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

In good news for Cuba, both Claudia Sheinbaum (Mexico) and Lula da Silva (Brazil) begun to prepare their ships to send oil, food and medical aid to Cuba. And it also seems like leftist organization, specially the rural ones, also wants to help with food.

Brazil prepares to help Cubans in the face of blackout - OUL (Portuguese Only)

Article Translated

Chancellor Mauro Vieira is negotiating with the Cuban government for Brazil to help with fuel supplies in the face of the energy crisis on the island, which has left Cuba in the grip of a blackout in recent days. On Monday, in New York, the Brazilian minister met with the head of Cuban diplomacy, Bruno Rodriguez Parrill, to discuss the matter.

The idea is to coordinate the shipment of fuel. Vieira returns to Brazil on Wednesday and intends to coordinate the action, with the involvement of other ministries. The foreign minister also used a debate at the UN on Tuesday to call on the US government to end the sanctions against Cuba.

Chancellor Mauro Vieira is negotiating with the Cuban government for Brazil to help with fuel supplies in the face of the energy crisis on the island, which has left Cuba in the grip of a blackout in recent days. On Monday, in New York, the Brazilian minister met with the head of Cuban diplomacy, Bruno Rodriguez Parrill, to discuss the matter.

The idea is to coordinate the shipment of fuel. Vieira returns to Brazil on Wednesday and intends to coordinate the action, with the involvement of other ministries. The foreign minister also used a debate at the UN on Tuesday to call on the US government to end the sanctions against Cuba.

For him, the rejection of the economic embargo against Cuba is practically an international consensus. Vieira also pointed out that Brazil is following with “great concern the current energy emergency in Cuba, aggravated by the embargo and by the recent passage of Hurricane Oscar, which caused human losses and significant destruction in eastern Cuba”.

“I express Brazil's full solidarity with the Cuban people and government in these difficult times, and our sincere condolences to the families of the victims,” he said. To help mitigate this situation, he indicated that the Brazilian government “has activated cooperation and assistance measures, seeking solutions for the supply of fuel and food to the Cuban population through various channels”.

Since September, Brazil has supplied 20,000 tons of rice and 3,116 tons of powdered milk, distributed to the Cuban population to help meet their basic food needs. “It is clear that the severe sanctions unjustifiably imposed on Cuba, both by the embargo and by its inclusion on the list of 'states sponsoring terrorism', have made this situation even worse,” he said.

“These measures, which already unfairly penalize the Cuban people, now prevent an adequate response to the humanitarian crisis generated by the hurricane,” he insisted. “For all these reasons, we urge the United States to reconsider its policy towards Cuba: lift the sanctions, remove Cuba from the list of states sponsoring terrorism and promote a constructive dialogue based on mutual respect and non-interference,” he added.

President of Mexico analyzes sending fuel to Cuba to alleviate blackouts. - CyberCuba

Article

"It is being seen, assistance was provided to Cuba at one point, and it is being evaluated whether fuel assistance is also necessary, as humanitarian aid, and it is help for the Cuban people," Claudia Sheinbaum stated at a press conference.

Claudia Sheinbaum, president of Mexico, announced this Wednesday in a press conference that she is considering supplying fuel to Cuba as a measure to mitigate the series of blackouts that have affected the nation following the collapse of the National Electric System (SEN) last Friday.

"It is being considered, assistance was provided to Cuba at one moment and it is being evaluated whether fuel assistance is also necessary, as humanitarian aid, and it is aid to the Cuban people," the leader remarked.

In 2023, Mexico sent at least 200 million dollars in oil to Cuba, according to estimates from the Energy Institute at the University of Texas, which the EFE agency accessed on September 30 of last year, although Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) denied that it was a donation.

Sheinbaum stated that the current assistance to Cuba has been limited exclusively to "technical support" from the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), highlighting the ongoing funding of the Mexican government to the Cuban regime, both under the administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador and in the current administration.

“We are always going to support, so CFE is in contact through the Foreign Ministry with what the Cuban people require, in order to support them; it is essentially technical assistance,” Sheinbaum emphasized.

More than a third of the island will be without electricity this Wednesday, according to forecasts from the state-owned Unión Eléctrica (UNE) of Cuba, EFE reported.

The energy crisis has intensified since August, and before the total collapse on Friday, supply cuts had already reached historic levels, with maximum impact rates between 41% and 51%.

The blackouts are primarily caused by the scarcity of fuel, resulting from the lack of foreign currency for its importation, and by the constant failures in the old thermal power plants in the country, which have been in operation for more than four decades and suffer from a chronic investment deficit.

Sheinbaum, who assumed the presidency on October 1, has stated on other occasions that her country "always provides humanitarian aid" and that "Mexico has always been against the blockade, except for some presidents during the neoliberal period who decided they had a different stance."

The Government of Mexico announced on Monday its willingness to provide technical support to Cuba, following the massive blackout that left the island without electricity since Friday.

The offer, communicated by the Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs, includes assistance from the CFE, which replaces the Mexican Electricians' Union "Luz y Fuerza del Centro," an old ally of the Cuban regime.

I read in some media that this would be a joint operation with Brazil and Mexico, but others say it will be done separately. In any case, Cuba will receive aid

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[–] [email protected] 42 points 1 day ago (8 children)

Can someone familiar with Myanmar speak to China's support for the various armed groups? I saw a post on SocialistRA asserting that they are funding the ethnonationalist forces hoping to capitalize on the winners to exploit the natural resources. Western news barely touches Myanmar these days other than to acknowledge the Rohingyan genocide.

[–] [email protected] 34 points 1 day ago (3 children)

Lol the faction situation is too complicated to even propagandize about for RFA and The Irrawaddy 😅 China supporta the MPLA in a small northern section they border.

You're going to see a lot of leftists continue to try to use this, the Communist Party of the Philippines' debunked allegations of China fighting a proxy war against them, and rescucitating the Sino Vietnamese war to try to score points online, but it's already been happening for years.

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[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 day ago (4 children)

China pays all sides so it always comes out on top. I am pretty sure it gave the junta jet fighters.

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[–] [email protected] 38 points 1 day ago (2 children)

There's a report that Trump wants the war/genocide over by January or before inauguration? Does anyone have the report?

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Trump is going to end up as the harm reduction vote wtf

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[–] [email protected] 36 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Of course he does. Otherwise the inevitable “failure” happens on his watch.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 day ago (1 children)

He could end it in 24 hours though, just needs to make a few phone calls honestly its easy

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 day ago

Yeah, he could, but that would be seen as a "failure" which is why he won't do it.

[–] [email protected] 39 points 1 day ago (3 children)
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[–] [email protected] 28 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Anyone have/seen that photo of the (presumably) DPRK soldier in Ukraine? It’s the most recent post here, but I can’t save the image https://t.me/DPRKtravel

[–] [email protected] 24 points 1 day ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 day ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 day ago

fingers & gun parts check out, doesn't appear to be generated (I'm aware this is a low bar).

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