Harris is on track to lose the entire Rustbelt, the entire sunbelt.
this post was submitted on 03 Nov 2024
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82,000,000 people voted early. It’s ridiculous that the race doesn’t start with those votes counted and reported.
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Remember; most mail ins are democrat. If it looks bad that's because we are not close to done.
I am on edge and dooming. If Trump wins it's all over. I'll likely literally die.
Go over to Reddit if you want to have a nervous breakdown. It's a complete shitshow over there at the moment.
I don't get it. There haven't been any surprises yet.
Pretty much every state is following as expected. Its going to be super close and come down to PA, MI, and WI.
I'm losing my ability to give a fuck at this point. Everything short of large scale civil unrest or political revolution is basically business as usual. Whatever happens I'm sure we'll fucking deserve it.
If you're looking at which states have been called then there may not be any surprises, but things like the NYT needle are following trends in states which are yet to be called.
Republican counties, with their fewer number of citizens, always report first. Rural areas are easier to count. Democrat counties, which tend to be urban, have far larger numbers and report later.
The trend doesn't matter on election day. Republicans always get the first wave, then Democrats catch up later. The question is how many urban areas are remaining in each state?
Answer: Lots for VA and NC. That's why AP hasn't called. Ignore the websites or newspapers that try to give you truth before the urban centers (with massive populations) dramatically shift the vote around.
Republican counties, with their fewer number of citizens, always report first. Rural areas are easier to count. Democrat counties, which tend to be urban, have far larger numbers and report later.
the problem is trump is over performing in those counties relative to 2020.
The NYT needle for the popular vote is currently leaning toward Trump, what the fuck is going on? lol
This clip talks through the swings towards Trump in a bunch of demographics. It's just bizarre.
For example college educated women have swung towards trump. What the fuck.
So, so, so much of this is the Israel/palestine issue. I cannot imagine it’s different. Especially when you talk about younger people and college educated voters.
But it’s not just because people care about it. It’s that it was a massive, opportunistic wedge issue that people looking to depress turnout used to bolster trumps chances. I’m not going to say who those people were that wanted to see this change, but the amount of people I’ve seen talking about it online, the amount of people I’ve talked to in person who just didn’t vote and cited the genocide…there’s no doubt in my mind it was Kamala’s silence until literally yesterday about “doing everything in her power to end the war in Gaza” that really put the nail in the coffin for her. And even that is light language (the day before Election Day, no less) when discussing genocide. But you see, those of us who care about it had this button purposefully pressed for us in order to hurt Kamala’s chances. Even when I’m describing that situation, I have a hard time not framing it as the legitimate issue it is. Because it’s a massive issue. A fuckin holocaust is happening before our eyes.
But things are about to get much, much worse for those people. Because the internet stoked the (very legitimate) feelings of anger. It’s not a solution to blow the entire situation up so you can say “well I didn’t vote for genocide.” It’s happening. And it’s about to get so much worse.
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Get your favourite show on netflix and watch that. No point in giving yourself mini heart attacks every time a county with 15 farmer’s ballots get counted.
Hey, you survived one trump term.
My despair is through the roof right now. What a mess.
I quite literally think I might have half a diazepam to get me through the next 6 hours or so.
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Are most mail in ballots democrat this year? I thought republicans were pushing that more with their base. But I don't know if they actually did it or if they voted more in person.
They have been anti mail in for a long time and still are.
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NYT, as of 10:40 p.m. Eastern US. 😬
Trump is up 3,000,000 in the popular vote in reported precincts. That trend will not hold. Harris will flip that and then some.
Unfortunately popular votes or the lack thereof don’t decide the election for either side.
That's true but I think this statement is an indicator that this point in time was always going to be the gloomiest.
Exactly. Trump always looks strongest early on. He looked like he had beaten Biden on the early counts. Blue votes get counted later.
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AP decision desk update for Michigan:
More than half of Michigan’s 83 counties had not reported any votes two hours after polls closed in much of the state. Only a handful of votes had been reported in Wayne and Macomb counties in the Detroit area, which tend to favor Democrats and Republicans, respectively.
NYT got me dooming. I think it’s time to pop a xanax and pretend everything is going to be okay while falling asleep.
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Updates from AP's decision desk:
Virginia:
As of about 9:30 p.m. EST, Harris isn’t doing as well as Biden in election returns at the same time during his race four years ago. Election officials in several counties in Virginia have also not yet reported results for votes cast by mail, which tend to favor Democrats. The race is too early to call.
North Carolina:
Trump is leading Harris by roughly 4 percentage points with more than half of the expected votes counted. Many of the state’s most populous counties haven’t reported significant numbers of votes cast in person on or before Election Day. In North Carolina, votes cast before Election Day made up 83% of total votes in 2020 and 58% in 2022.
I'm in Canada and anxiously following this dumb election ... mostly because I have to because whoever wins will affect my life too.
This is like watching my neighbours standing outside their burning house and having an argument about which fire department they should call ..... while the house fire grows in size. And the choices of fire departments is a regular fire department and other department is a bunch of guys in a half ton truck with buckets of water.
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AP decision desk update for Arizona:
Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, has reported its first votes. The massive county is key for candidates. Its first update included more than a million votes, about half of the expected total there. The first reported votes were ballots that arrived or were cast ahead of Election Day. County election officials have warned it could take as long as 13 days to tabulate all ballots.
Friends, it looks like North Carolina (along with Georgia) is lost, this means Harris needs to win Pennsylvania (+ Winsconsin and Michigan) or it’s over.
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