this post was submitted on 03 Nov 2024
231 points (99.1% liked)

politics

19170 readers
5736 users here now

Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!

Rules:

  1. Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.

Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.

Example:

  1. Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
  2. Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
  3. No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
  4. Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
  5. No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.

That's all the rules!

Civic Links

Register To Vote

Citizenship Resource Center

Congressional Awards Program

Federal Government Agencies

Library of Congress Legislative Resources

The White House

U.S. House of Representatives

U.S. Senate

Partnered Communities:

News

World News

Business News

Political Discussion

Ask Politics

Military News

Global Politics

Moderate Politics

Progressive Politics

UK Politics

Canadian Politics

Australian Politics

New Zealand Politics

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
 

Edit 11:55 PM Pacific
Kentucky (8), Indiana (11), West Virginia (4), Florida (30), South Carolina (9), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Oklahoma (7), Arkansas (6), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5*), Wyoming (3), Louisiana (8), Texas (40), Ohio (17), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Utah (6), Idaho (4), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), North Carolina (BG-16), Georgia (BG-16), Pennsylvanya (BG-19) called for Trump.

Vermont (3), Connecticut (7), District of Columbia (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Delaware (3), Illinois (19), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Colorado (10), California (54), Washington (12), Oregon (8), Virginia (13), Hawaii (4), New Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4), Minnesota (10) for Harris.

2 counties in PA have extended voting hours due to voting machine problems. 9:30 PM in one, 10:00 PM in the other.

Multiple precincts in Georgia have extended hours due to bomb threats.

Edit 03:09 PM Pacific Harris wins Guam.

https://www.guampdn.com/news/guam-picks-harris-over-trump-in-non-binding-presidential-straw-poll/article_657b06b8-9b97-11ef-9896-1302c4e2ebe9.html

This thread is for the Presidential election, my plan is to start marking wins as soon as they are called, sorted by time zone.

Some states are going to take longer than others. Polls generally close at 8 PM local time, but they can't start counting early/mail in votes until after the polls close.

Wisconsin in particular has an interesting system where ballots are collected by MUNICIPALITY, not precinct, they have over 1,800 ballot counting locations and don't report until ALL 1,800 are in.

https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2024/10/22/wisconsin-voters-election-milwaukee-security-denier

Currently 232 EC votes from Blue States:

4+19+10+7+3+3+4+10+11 +4+14+28+4+3+13+54+12 +10+5+8+6

42 EC votes from Battleground States:

10+15+11+6

NC called for Trump. -16 here, +16 to Trump.

GA called for Trump. -16 here, +16 to Trump.

PA called for Trump. -19 here, +19 to Trump.

Which leaves 264 EC votes in Red States.

9+6+6+6+8+6+10+5+3+7 +3+40+30+11+8+17+9+11+4+3+4+4+3+16+16+19

270 to Win.

Online map here!

https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/

(page 9) 50 comments
sorted by: hot top controversial new old
[–] [email protected] 17 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Fucking Dixville. You guys had no problem voting for Biden, but half can't vote for the colored lady. That's a bridge too far.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 day ago (2 children)

4 Republicans and 2 Undecideds.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 day ago

GröpenFührer said he's going to use the military against the US citizens.

That alone from all the crazy shit he's said should result in an immediate 6-0 vote for Harris.

load more comments (1 replies)
[–] [email protected] 33 points 1 day ago (1 children)
load more comments (1 replies)
[–] [email protected] -5 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago) (2 children)

Looking forward to checking the results on my next break and seeing trump winning every swing state. I knew he would win, it is both the funniest and worst outcome, it was meant to be. We're gonna watch his brain turn ever more thoroughly into goo for the next ~4 years and make even more insane headlines than last time.

*on my next break and I called it lol. Nothing called by AP yet but he's up in MI, PA, GA, and WI. Strap in.

load more comments (2 replies)
[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 day ago

I’m working in a pretty much outside information-free environment until almost 11pm tonight. Really glad to not have a window seat to this rollercoaster. Cast my vote early, so my duty is done.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 day ago

Thanks so much for doing this Jordan. You’re very appreciated!

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (3 children)

Here we go! Last run through the polls before the election!

Arizona - Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada - Trump +1 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

Georgia - Toss-Up - Trump +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

North Carolina - Trump +2 to +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Pennsylvania - Toss-Up Harris +1/+2 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan - Toss-Up Tie, Harris +1 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin - Toss-Up, Harris +1/+3 to Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Plotted on the map:

Advantage is with Trump in this scenario.

Assuming he takes Georgia, 2020 was an anomaly in my mind, GA has gone Republican in every other election since 1996, that gives Trump 264.

Which means if Harris loses ANY other state, she's done. She has to sweep PA, MI and WI to hit 274.

If the disaffected Arab vote in MI is enough to flip it, plus a Trump win in Georgia, that puts him at 279 to Harris 259. A scarily likely scenario.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago (2 children)

It's possible some other unexpected state goes Harris, no?

load more comments (2 replies)
[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Honestly, with all the news showing how poll herding has been happening, I think it's quite likely she sweeps the swing states. I'm less nervous now than I was a few days ago.

load more comments (1 replies)
[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago (2 children)

My prediction is still Harris takes the popular vote, Trump the EC. I hate it here.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 day ago

Trump hasn't won a popular vote yet, so that's a good call!

load more comments (1 replies)
[–] [email protected] 0 points 17 hours ago (1 children)

I wish Cholensky would finally be President.

load more comments (1 replies)
[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 day ago (1 children)

My favorite take on this comes from James Carville:

"I'm gonna sleep soundly tonight. Have a couple of bourbons, maybe a gummy or two, but yeah. Gonna sleep soundly tonight on her chances to win this thing."

load more comments (1 replies)
[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 day ago

3 hours to the next. Gyam, Northern Mariana Islands, but no EC votes.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 day ago

When you should know

"Near-complete election results are expected from Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan on Tuesday night, but only partial results from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona, Harris-Walz campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told reporters in a Monday afternoon briefing,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Dillon predicted additional results from Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be available earlier in the day Wednesday, with Arizona and Nevada trickling in the rest of the week.”

Said Dillon: “We’re going to continue to see new votes being reported for many days after Election Day. We believe this race is going to be incredibly close, so we may not know the results of this election for several days.”

[–] [email protected] 29 points 2 days ago (2 children)

Just listened to Selzer break down her methodology in clear, simple terms. I'm starting to think the polling error this cycle is pretty big, and Harris is going to win handily.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 day ago

I've been thinking about this too.

I've heard a lot of commentary about how polling has addressed the shortcomings of recent election cycles and that its more or less all fixed now. I do wonder though, there seems to be a heap of things that are very difficult to account for.

For example, who's actually going to vote vs just intending to vote. For example the garbage thing has motivated a lot of people to get it done.

Another is the late break. I think for a lot of people that just don't pay attention to politics, if you ask them 2 weeks ago they just haven't really thought about it - their answers are precooked from last cycle. As the big day comes around and people think about candidates, lots of traditional republicans voters will make a different choice.

Also just generally with polls is the type of person that actually completes polls. Most people ain't got time for that.

Of course I understand pollsters try to control for these things but as these problems stack up its easy to see how there can be some surprises.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 day ago

God I hope so... The #1 problem with polling has been trying to determine who is or is not a "likely voter".

We're seeing that in PA. 22 recent polls, 18 "Likely Voter" polls, meanwhile 100,000 new voters casting ballots early. New voters aren't counted as "likely".

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

What a year it's been here in the politics channel. I'm still here. Exhausted.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 day ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I will be voting tomorrow in person at my polling place before work.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 day ago

Good for you! We just got the email at work "Hey, do your civic duty, if you need time off to vote, ask your manager."

Of course, I'm vote by mail, ballot's been in since 10/24.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 day ago (3 children)

Any predictions on what musk / xitter's role in all this will be?

They can basically call states for republicans early.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Musk will likely be promoting anything claiming a Trump win, but I don't think X has their own election coverage, do they?

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 day ago

That's kind of what I mean. They don't have their own formal coverage, but they can manipulate the prevalence of different narratives.

If officials refuse to certify whatever states, having the perceived support of the public can make all the difference.

load more comments (2 replies)
[–] [email protected] 58 points 2 days ago (2 children)

Texas waited until the 29th of October to mail out my ballot. As of today (November 3rd), I have yet to receive it. I fully expect Texas to fuck me over.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 days ago

Everything is rigger in Texas

[–] [email protected] 36 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (7 children)

That's crazy late to mail it OUT. Too late even to mail it back. You'll have to either find a drop box or hand deliver it to county elections HQ.

If you don't get it in time, you can always vote in person.

load more comments (7 replies)
[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 day ago

Appreciate you putting this together!

load more comments
view more: ‹ prev next ›