this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023

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[Megathread] Prigozhin's Betrayal (lemmygrad.ml)

submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

48 comments fedilink hide all child comments

The columns moved around - towards Buturlinovka and Borisoglebsk . There was no information about the occupation of the airfield.
Aviation continues to strike at the columns. PMC. By this hour, it is known about the loss of three aircraft of army aviation. Information about the downed transport aircraft is not confirmed.
In Voronezh itself, an oil depot is on fire: this is probably a consequence of a Ukrainian UAV strike.
In Rostov , contrary to the statements of PMCs, the departments of the FSB and the Ministry of Internal Affairs were not occupied, but only blocked. At the moment, Rostov is only under the partial control of the Wagners, the planned work of all military command and control bodies continues.
To the south of Moscow, all possible routes of movement of PMCs are blocked.

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I go to sleep and wake up to this shit lmao

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Same. I woke up tgis morning (18 hours before posting this) checking for weekly update on the SMO to find....whatever the fuck that's going on here.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Maybe I am not knowledgeable about the situation, but seems that privately-owned enterprise failed in yet another strategically important matter 🤔

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Lukashenko to Prigozhin:

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Well spitting my drink out at a TPB meme about a mercenary uprising in Russia seeking to remove the head of the MoD mediated by the Belarussian president wasn't on my 2023 shit-bingo card, yet here we are lol

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Unreal usage of this meme lmao

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Tf just happened :/

Prigozhin just ended his march after speaking with Lukashenko and Wagner is now going back to their camps.

Either all of this was some kind of grand plan to get rid of someone or distract NATO, or Lukashenko promised hem some, which is even more strange as Lukashenko doesn't have any power in Russia.

What a day to be alive...

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Source?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

https://www.rt.com/russia/578632-wagner-agrees-to-end-insurrection/

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Wtf is going on lol

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Look at my last comment there are more sources.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I meant in the way that this all just seems so strange

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

At this point I'm really starting to believe it was some kind of psyop lmao

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Possibly, but if so it's a really stupid psyop -- kind of not what you would expect from a government whose top levels are supposedly stacked with former KGB and even Stasi officers.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

https://t.me/rybar/48972

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

It doesn't need to be a grand plan. There could have been legitimate sleepers in Wagner and this was an attempt to smoke them out and get them to show up so they could be neutralized.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

This is the plot of MGS3 btw.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

You are right, and it did not end well for Volgin.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (2 children)

What am I missing here? No one has put forth the theory that Wagner, in whole or in part, is infiltrated with US sleepers. This to me seems like the most obvious hypothesis to put forth and I haven't seen it. Can someone help me reorient?

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

It was mentioned now and then, but no one seem to seriously believe this, if they were to the point of "march to Moscow" they might instead do much more significant damage in concert with the UA offensive just now, which they didn't.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Maybe there is some US influence but the key factor seems to be the plans by the Russian government and the ministry of defense specifically to nationalize Wagner and include it into the Russian military officially.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

I just don't see how a mercenary army doesn't have US agents in it. I imagine that, like China, Russia has incredibly well-honed state apparatus for identifying and purging North Atlantic spies. But I imagine mercs are a bit more porous and have different immune systems.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

They might but at least right now that doesn't seem like the main trigger for this event.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I don't know if it needs to be a main trigger. I'm not a big fan of those sorts of analyses. I'm looking for what the consequences are if this particular event a) was foreknown by North Atlantic strategic command and b) what opportunities the foreknowledge would afford North Atlantic interests, especially if there are North Atlantic operators inside the event.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Of course. My analysis is nowhere near comprehensive but I just think we don't know enough yet to really go further without heavy speculation.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

I think the speculative hypothesizing is valuable because it can help us look for corroborating evidence or invalidating evidence. The speculation would need to be focused on an analysis of interests served, not merely hearsay or what is reported, but rather a material analysis of who benefits and how.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I wonder if, when the dust settles, this Prigozhin mutiny will end up spooking world militaries on the use of mercs.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

I don't think this will make a dent in Blackwater. This is honestly no different than from the whole situation in Afghanistan, to be honest, just replace mercenaries with the funding of extremist religious groups, the people that the US was funding where the sames they end up fighting, although that always played in the favour to have an excuse to invade countries.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

It seems Lukashenko has managed to get to an agreement with Prigozhin and stop the march. In my opinion, it's the best that could have happened, I don't want to see any bloodshed, but Prigozhin needs to go, he cannot remain, I don't know how this can be achieved, because a too harsh punishment can still trigger Wagner, but I hope Wagner gets banned and incorporated into the Russian army and Prigozhin faces the wall. There's no name to what did, to betray your country, your brothers, to threaten world order for money.

https://www.rt.com/russia/578632-wagner-agrees-to-end-insurrection/

The servicemen of the Eastern Military District expressed their support to the President

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52157

Statement of a soldier of the 217th regiment. They stand with President.

https://t.me/rusich_army/9586

🇷🇺🇧🇾 Lukashenko held talks with Prigozhin

Message from the press service of the President of the Republic of Belarus:

This morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin briefed his Belarusian counterpart on the situation in southern Russia with the private military company Wagner. The heads of state agreed on joint actions.

As a follow-up to the agreements, the President of Belarus, having additionally specified the situation through his channels, and in agreement with the President of Russia, held talks with the head of PMC Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin. Negotiations continued throughout the day. As a result, they agreed on the inadmissibility of unleashing a bloody massacre on the territory of Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko to stop the movement of armed persons of the Wagner company on the territory of Russia and take further steps to de-escalate tensions. At the moment, an absolutely profitable and acceptable option for solving the situation is on the table, with security guarantees for the Wagner PMC fighters. As previously reported, also during today, the President of Belarus held two meetings with the power bloc of the country on this situation.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52155

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Iranian IRGC resources write: “We saved Assad, we will also save Putin”

Shiite militias in Syria said they were ready to come to Russia to support Vladimir Putin and protect the integrity of the state.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52079

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Eyewitnesses in Rostov report that the explosion was pyrotechnic intended to drive away the civilians. Wagner PMC troops have demanded that civilians do not approach closer than 2kms.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52041

Akhmat forces are reported to be arriving in Rostov.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52042

And here is the Akhmat column itself going towards Rostov. The subscriber said that it stretched for several kilometers

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52050

PMC Wagner unlawfully detained 2 people outside the Southern Military District Headquarters; presumably, they did not comply with the 2 kilometre perimeter.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52051

Soldiers of the PMC "Wagner" on-top of the roof of the Southern Military District Headquarters.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52056

Police is taking action to block convoys. Location: a brige on river Oka.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52064

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

https://gulfnews.com/world/europe/russia-putin-signs-law-permitting-30-day-detention-for-breaking-martial-law-regime-1.96598023

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

Akhmat fighters enter Rostov from two sides. From the side of Aksai (north-eastern part) and from the side of Krasny Krym (north-western part).

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52066

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Lipetsk region. The roads to Moscow are blocked by ditches.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52076

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

The situation at the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov in the late afternoon. No shootings or fighting are recorded.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52109

It seems they may be stealing supplies? I wonder how much gear and munitions they can get from this.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Voenkor RT Zhdanov:

“Two weeks before the Wagner mutiny, regular soldiers on the front line received letters from people, in their words, “working in the interests of PMCs.” They offered to pay for dirt on the army.

And this Friday they offered to “choose a side” and report on the orders received.

Photo correspondence from familiar Spetsnaz. We worked with them more than once, I have no doubts about the authenticity. The question is, did they write the truth about PMCs or is it the work of the TsIPSO's paws (which, in my opinion, is more likely), which are now spinning the crisis with might and main in their favor. Both options play into the hands of the enemy only.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52113

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Alright comrades, had to do some boring praxis, back for the real shit - what happened during the day? Did a literal coup actually end with the coup'ists going back...to the frontlines to fight a war they were couping for? Is that unironically what this came down to?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

So there's multiple (?) armored columns moving through the country towards Moscow and almost 24h in there's been no real, organized resistance at any point. Wagner's just cruising past the few barriers, is still chillin at the Rostov HQ and allegedly the first video of Wagners detaining Akhmat forces has popped up. Sound's like substantial parts of the army and law enforcement at least tacitly approve of this.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Do you have a link to them detaining Akhmat forces?

Could be, maybe they are just trying to delay them without engaging in conflict until they get to a certain zone. They put some trucks to block the road and left the place, and they are digging holes in the road and will likely left the place too. I hope you are wrong, though, I honestly can't believe soldiers would be so traitorous.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

There you go. As I said allegedly, but RWA brought this video up in their livestream too. Could be random civilians, but RWA is usually somewhat careful with these things so I didn't discard it immediately.

Could be just a delaying strategy, but still seems weird that nothing's really being done about them and all the units we've seen so far have been police, Akhmat, Rosgvardia and a few VDV in Moscow. You'd expect a convy in rebellion moving hundreds of kms through the country to be blasted apart, when this gets exponentially worse for every minute it drags on.

Edit: Videos of S400 missiles and S300s moving in/to Rostov, which is kinda weird too.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Those are not Akhmat, those are civilians, Slavyngrad posted pictures of them and from other angle you can see they don't have any gear, even in that video you can kind of see they have regular tshirts.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52051

I've seen they are moving resources to Moscow, which as you said, maybe it's better to stop them before they're too close to the capital, but I guess it also allows for having a better force waiting for them. Regarding the missiles videos, I don't know.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

This is how the map of Moscow and the region looks like now: all blocked sections of the routes are marked on it.

Basically, if they attack some checkpoint, that would be a sign that this can end only in one way

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52125

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 year ago (3 children)

credit unknown

the only explanation considering how the Ukrainian counteroffensive went lmao

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

the only explanation

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

It all needs to unfold but I sincerely don't think all of Wagner will follow through with this. It would be such a stupid blunder.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Yeah what was his end game for this? Maybe Priho wanted to coup the MoD only since he feared his assets will be carelessly detroyed in their hands? But Putin didn't like this at all and gave the CTO?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

I don't know, I hope that this can be resolved peacefully even if Wagner doesn't deserve it, an attack may trigger more support within their men, but if not, Wagner must be dealt with immediately, traitors held responsible and everything needs to be stabilised as soon as possible to resolve operations in the front lines in an orderly manner.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Ah yes, auto-balance. The sign above all signs that it's time to requeue, because you're about to get your shit pushed in by all the effort you put in either holding or pushing a cap for the last 8 minutes