Again, national polls are meaningless since we don't run national elections.
this post was submitted on 18 Oct 2023
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They give a general idea of how the public will vote when it comes to spoiler candidates. No, they don't consider regional differences, but I wouldn't say they are meaningless.
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That's not how polling works.
Small sample size national polls are always the first line of polling.
They are not meaningless, even if they don't have the same precision as exit polling.
What I mean is, thanks to the electoral college, running a national poll as though it means anything is pointless.
We saw this in 2016 with Clinton. National polling showed her winning, and as far as the popular vote was concerned, she won.
Which means jack all in the electoral college.
I understand that, but you are just too black and white.
There is a middle ground of indicative truth between being 100% precise or totally wrong.
Polling showed Clinton as being most likely to win. The fact that she didn’t win doesn’t mean the polling is necessarily meaningless. Even if someone has a 90% chance of winning, it means they can not only lose, but 1 in 10 times you expect them to lose.
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Seems to me that your mistake is that you believe the purpose of polls is to predict an outcome, and/or tell you who is “winning” or “losing” at a given point in time. That is not their purpose.
Their purpose is to gauge the relative effectiveness of different campaign messaging strategies, and to give a rough order of magnitude of a campaign’s trajectory.
Here’s the most important part: polls contain no actionable data for voters. They shouldn’t influence whether or how much you volunteer or donate, and they absolutely must not influence how you vote.
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"I refuse to believe this poll because PBS and NPR are secretly controlled by the Tri-lateral commission, the Pro Bowlers Tour and Baskin-Robbins. Do your own research!"
- RFK "I am not a crackpot!" Jr.
Also, dippin' dots is NOT the ice cream of the future! (This needs to come back, it was wonderful)
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There is no way this jaggoff is polling at 16%.
16% is basically frustration with the other choices available. It's not the percentage that would actually vote for him if an election were held tomorrow. It is a bit high considering how awful RFK is, but it just shows how incredibly unpopular the other options are.
Well duh, he's a Qanon freak
They were banking on Democrats seeing "Kennedy" and blindly pulling that lever.
A certain Louisiana Kennedy comes to mind.
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the survey indicates a 10-point drop among Republicans for Trump with RFK Jr. on the ticket.
I really hope that they get completely crushed in the election. The strongest message possible has to be sent. One where they can’t claim the election was stolen or any bullshit excuse (of course they will still try).
This has to be the end of trump and his cronies or it’s going to be the end of us as a nation. There’s no middle ground at all.
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Yeah no shit the party of anti-vaxxers and lying about history is more susceptible to grifters.
Makes sense because only non-starters would vote for a highball douchebag Kennedy like little Robbie.
Nobody wants your brand Rob. Rich, drunk, drug user, crazy, dumb fuck.
Nobody wants that.
Funny, I've been told by right-wing commenters that RFK Jr is "Democrats' kryptonite". Are you saying they have no idea what they're talking about, and their model of the inner workings of anyone to the left of Mitch McConnell is faulty?
My 64 year old father who doesn't really pay attention to politics brought up RFK Jr as trouble for Biden. He seemed disappointed when I said the vaccine conspiracy and not supporting Ukraine would sink him.
It's weird to hear him bring up Kennedy Jr out of the blue like that. He's been drowning himself in crypto currency stuff these last few years, so it's not a good sign that he's started talking about the WEF and shit like that.
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kennedy getting favorable coverage for republican media tends to affect republicans.
One thing that's been nice on Lemmy so far is we can actually discuss polls without all the top level posts being something along the lines of "Don't listen to polls, VOTE!".... as if anyone who subs to the politics section of a social media site doesn't know voting is important.
I agree, but I still think you might be surprised how many actually don't sometimes or always in practice. I would assume it's less than the average person, but it's not zero.
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If he pulls enough from Biden to cause the contingent election scenario (in which case, the incoming congress decides the winner not by voting seats, but with each state delegation able to cast 1 vote) it might not matter to the GOP if RFK pulls more from Trump than from Biden.
If you game out the probabilities- It's very unlikely that Trump beats Biden It's also unlikely that RFK gets enough votes to deny Biden an outright win, but is it less so? It's very likely that the GOP will control more state delegations than the Democrats will, by virtue of their state-level gerrymanders.
The contingent election moonshot might be the GOP's best shot at winning control of the White House in 2024
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Thank fuck.
Cheryl Hines is probably wishing she could get together with Larry David IRL these days
She’s the biggest surprise here. I can’t believe she married this doofus. Not that I know anything about her beyond curb. But I would have hoped she wasn’t on the antivax conspiracy train and it unfortunately appears that she is.
Lololol. That's why the con insiders flipped on this crazy asshole and they were sounding the alarm a few weeks ago. I wonder if their dipshit base will get the memo? I bet missives have been sent out to all their grievance networks to start demonizing this guy...or at least not be propping him up in the hopes that just enough low-info type voters pull the lever for this guy instead of Biden...
Good.
How are these polls conducted? Because the sample may be skewed.
This survey of 1,313 adults was conducted October 11th, 2023 by the Marist Poll sponsored in partnership with NPR and PBS NewsHour. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the United States were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Survey questions were available in English. Phone and online samples were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its adult population. The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2020 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±3.8 percentage points. There are 1,218 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.9 percentage points.
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