When I studied International Affairs we were assigned a book called “The Road to Dayton: A Study in American Statecraft” about the Dayton Accords ending the Bosnian War. Richard Holbrooke and Warren Christopher weren’t the only players, obviously, but I remember it being excellent for the time.
I went to college a long time ago so I have no idea if the book is still relevant. But there’s even a Simpsons joke where Homer is afraid Bart is gay and Moe says, “Time was, you send a boy off to war. Shootin' a man'd fix him right up. But there's not even any wars no more—Thank you very much, Warren Christopher.”
In retrospect, it was all very September 10th but we used to actually end wars. Probably sounds crazy to young people but it’s true. There used to be peacetime where joining the military just meant you trained and maybe went to Germany or something.
Assuming no one nukes the world or that all air defenses work, it’d be a mess. There’s no force in human history that can stop NATO in a traditional war. (Maybe the Mongols because they’re always the exception.) But it’s very likely China, North Korea, Iran, and others would be much harder to conquer/occupy at the same time.
It would be widespread suffering in most of the world. The truth is that war is obsolete as a means of accomplishing 99% of political goals. Most of the world would descend into chaos and civil war. Food would be scarce and in times of scarcity, the drunkest, most violent people usually end up in charge. You’d have warlordism in the vast, vast majority of the world.
The natural state of humanity isn’t trade and property rights. It’s warlords offering protection in exchange for whatever they need. No one “wins” wars in 2024. Groups like ISIS would thrive, not law and order.