TempermentalAnomaly

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/14210696

The two percentage points of vote share that Mr Trump has gained since 2020 come from three sources. The largest group is people who supported Mr Biden last time, but are now undecided, backing minor candidates or not planning to vote, who outnumber those making the same shift from Mr Trump’s camp. These voters account for 0.9 points of Mr Trump’s two-point improvement. Undecided former Biden voters are slightly younger, more likely to be black or female and less likely to have attended college than repeat Biden voters.

Mr Trump also enjoys an edge among people entering or returning to the major-party electorate. The share who say they did not vote for either him or Mr Biden in 2020 but have now settled on Mr Trump is 3.7%, slightly above the 3.3% who are choosing Mr Biden. This group adds another 0.3 of a point to Mr Trump’s tally.

The final group, swing voters, is the smallest but also the most impactful. Because people who flip between the two major-party candidates both subtract a vote from one side and add one to the other, they matter twice as much as do those who switch between a candidate and not voting at all. Such voters are rare—just 3% of respondents fall into this category—but Mr Trump is winning two-thirds of them. With 2% of participants shifting from Mr Biden to Mr Trump versus just 1% doing the opposite, swing voters contribute a full percentage point to Mr Trump’s two-way vote share.

The most intriguing pattern in YouGov’s data, however, is probably an equally powerful factor that has nothing to do with ideology. Compared with committed partisans, swing voters are vastly more likely to have children aged under 18: 47% of those flipping from Mr Biden to Mr Trump and 40% of those switching the other way are currently raising children, compared with 22% of repeat Biden voters and 19% of consistent Trump ones. And once the effects of race and parenthood are combined, the disparities are striking.

When writing a comment, you can preview it. I didn't see this feature when making a post.

Also, spoiler markdowns weren't rendering in Boost when I tried using the menu insertion. I've seen other posts and comments with spoilers, so I'm not sure what's happening.

The two percentage points of vote share that Mr Trump has gained since 2020 come from three sources. The largest group is people who supported Mr Biden last time, but are now undecided, backing minor candidates or not planning to vote, who outnumber those making the same shift from Mr Trump’s camp. These voters account for 0.9 points of Mr Trump’s two-point improvement. Undecided former Biden voters are slightly younger, more likely to be black or female and less likely to have attended college than repeat Biden voters.

Mr Trump also enjoys an edge among people entering or returning to the major-party electorate. The share who say they did not vote for either him or Mr Biden in 2020 but have now settled on Mr Trump is 3.7%, slightly above the 3.3% who are choosing Mr Biden. This group adds another 0.3 of a point to Mr Trump’s tally.

The final group, swing voters, is the smallest but also the most impactful. Because people who flip between the two major-party candidates both subtract a vote from one side and add one to the other, they matter twice as much as do those who switch between a candidate and not voting at all. Such voters are rare—just 3% of respondents fall into this category—but Mr Trump is winning two-thirds of them. With 2% of participants shifting from Mr Biden to Mr Trump versus just 1% doing the opposite, swing voters contribute a full percentage point to Mr Trump’s two-way vote share.

The most intriguing pattern in YouGov’s data, however, is probably an equally powerful factor that has nothing to do with ideology. Compared with committed partisans, swing voters are vastly more likely to have children aged under 18: 47% of those flipping from Mr Biden to Mr Trump and 40% of those switching the other way are currently raising children, compared with 22% of repeat Biden voters and 19% of consistent Trump ones. And once the effects of race and parenthood are combined, the disparities are striking.

This was the most exciting traffic to sit in yesterday. I knew it was coming, but surprising it was already happening. I almost hit a person going westbound coming down from the 84/82nd overpass and into the unlit, blind curve. He left his shopping cart and saved himself. But the next car behind me had to sweep into the opposite lane. Thankfully, no one was on the road.

Now there'll be a traffic calming circle and crosswalk. Hopefully, they add some street lamps and a flashing light for when people want to cross.

Fingers crossed that they do something for the 205/84 exchange overpass. That light at 92nd is like people are lining up for a drag race.

Wow... So many Eastside joints. Not complaining, but surprised nonetheless. With so many great spots to get a bite, its not surprising if they left something off the list. I was surprised to not see Apizza Scholls. Its been a while since I've been, but I always consider them to be pizza royalty. And then choosing Rose VL over Ha VL is odd to me. But cool. Who do you they left off?

The highway cap is not the reason this project is so expensive. The real expense comes from doubling the width of the existing highway — something that ODOT has gone to great pains to conceal. The existing roadway is 82 feet wide, and ODOT's plans — which were not revealed publicly, but which we obtained via a public records request — show that the agency plans to nearly double the width of the highway to 160 feet along much of its length. In some places, it will roughly triple it to 240 feet.

Instead of disclosing the massive highway expansion, though, ODOT instead claims that it is merely adding "one auxiliary lane" in each direction to the existing four-lane freeway, and calling for wide inside and outside shoulders that can be easily be re-striped into travel lanes once the project is built (which can be done without additional environmental review under FHWA regulations, by the way).

The agency also claims that this widening-by-another-name will result in no increase in road capacity, and that therefore there won't be any additional traffic on I-5. But ODOT's own traffic count data predicts that traffic will grow from about 120,000 today to 142,000 per day in 2045 – a 18-percent increase

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/14025725

It’s a significant reversal from recent history: President Joe Biden is struggling with young voters but performing better than most Democrats with older ones.

It’s a significant reversal from recent history: President Joe Biden is struggling with young voters but performing better than most Democrats with older ones.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/13897979

Survey finds a fraying Democratic coalition as Trump gains among young and minority voters

https://archive.is/vW5Go

Original poll and archive

Survey finds a fraying Democratic coalition as Trump gains among young and minority voters

https://archive.is/vW5Go