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Are you on drugs? There's no way he wins.
I desperately wish I had your optimism and conviction.
I hope he doesn't, but...
What's your logic in thinking he has any chance at all?
Russia hasn't stopped influencing American media. GOP hasn't stopped having him as their candidate. People haven't stopped being stupid and hateful. 🤷♂️
He won't. The majority doesn't want Trump. And I know... electoral college and shit - but people has wised up. That's why Trump lost last time, and will lose again next time.
IDK, I think it's going to be very close. Quite a few people I know who disliked Trump over Biden in the last election now favor Trump. Many are in demographics you wouldn't expect. Most never vote though.
Trump is doing slightly better in the polls than Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
People's money are on Trump winning (slightly): https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-chances-beating-joe-biden-six-months-before-election-day-1897978
https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election?tid=1715838452989
What makes you think that? Trump voters love him. Between the economy and Israel's actions, Biden voters are pretty damn disaffected at this point. It was close last time (he won the tipping point state by a mere 0.6%), so it doesn't take too many people staying home to result in Trump winning.
If you think that Americans are affected enough by Gaza to vote for Trump you are flat out insane. He lost once already and there's no way he's gained voters. He's accrued a multitude of criminal charges. You say " Trump voters love him. " And that's true, but there aren't many left. Media will have you believe it will be close, so that they can keep your eyes on their content.
No one is going to vote for Trump over Gaza. They're just not gonna vote. And you must live in some kind of bubble if you think Trump supporters have changed their minds over the last 4 years. Some of them have since 2016. But if they supported him in 2020, they're supporting him now. Trump doesn't need anyone new to vote for him, just for a small percentage of people who showed up for the record turn out election in 2020 to not this time around.
I think you’re going to see the biggest landslide election in our lifetimes towards Biden.
I think we're going to see record low turnouts making the remaining votes count so much more.
I think you're underestimating GenZ
Do you happen to personally know a bunch of 2020 Trump voters who are voting Biden this time around? I have no idea where you're getting this confidence from.
I know a few, but to base my argument on anecdotes is not helpful. However, check this article out: Donald Trump Suffers Huge Vote Against Him in Maryland, Nebraska
A lot of people are arguing that it will be a close race, but if 17-20% of your party is voting for a candidate that has already dropped out of the race, that can't be good for a close race. These people SHOWED UP to vote for someone else who was no longer in the race. I refuse to believe that these voters went out of their way to vote for Haley in the primaries, just to say "Ah, fuck it, I'll just vote for Trump" in the general election. Third party votes are going to hurt Trump.
Maryland is blue and doesn't matter. Similarly, Nebraska went for the republican candidate by more than a 20 point margin in 2020.
If you want to use that argument, how many people voted for "noncommitted" in the Michigan democratic primary? People don't even have another option but are going out to vote "not Biden" in an actual swing state.
I live in MI and I highly doubt that. There’s a Democratic majority in all three branches.
MI went for Trump in 2016 and broke for Biden by less than 3% in 2020. If those "noncommitted" voters didn't show up, it would be a problem for Biden. Whereas if the Haley voters didn't show up in Nebraska and Maryland, it would not be a problem for Trump.
Trump voters love him, but they're not the majority. Trump will lose again.
they never were the majority. Not even amongst the GOP (to differentiate people who vote party vs president). And yet... 2016.
Yes, 2016. But THEN.... 2020.
That's the part that people conveniently leaves out.
They don't have to be the majority. They just have to show up to vote in some swing states where Biden voters don't bother. President isn't based on who has the majority. It's based on a) turn out and b) electoral college. It doesn't matter if everyone and their mom turn out to vote democratic in California. It matters if about 20,000 people in Wisconsin who voted Biden last year decide it isn't worth the trouble this year.
Correct. And all that already happened in 2020 when Trump LOST while being a sitting president.
More people will vote against Trump, including this recently naturalized 'Merican.
With how unpopular Trump and Biden are, it's probably easier to lose as the sitting president. I don't know anyone happy with the state of the country, and that's generally blamed on the president.
And added to that, the massive disinformation campaigns from foreign powers.
What a shitshow, man.
It is almost a certainty that Trump will lose the popular vote. It is highly likely the election will be extremely close still because of the electoral college. In a country of hundreds of millions, it only takes hundreds of thousands of voters in swing states to change the outcome, regardless of the majority.