this post was submitted on 31 May 2024
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This is the first poll taken after the conviction, and has us at 41% Biden/39% Trump

Actual voting preferences differ only slightly from one the same pollster took in early May, which had us at 35% Biden/36% Trump.

Having a solid sense of how the conviction will impact things will likely take a week or so as news percolates and people talk.

I'll also note that these to polls are polls of adults, which tend to favor Trump by a little bit more than polls of registered voters or of likely voters.

Archived copies of the article: archive.today ghostarchive.org

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 2 months ago (3 children)

Are polls trustworthy again? I thought it was too far out.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 months ago

Polls are only good for confirmation bias.

It's trivial to game a poll via phrasing and user selection.

Here on lemmy, polls are only used as evidence if it confirms the poster's biases. Otherwise, they're waved off as unreliable.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago (1 children)

They're enough to tell us that we're seeing a little bit of movement in response to Trump's guilty verdict, and that the election is close enough that it could easily go either way

[–] [email protected] -1 points 2 months ago

So we will hold that same standard in a few days when fresh polling comes out showing Trump still beating Biden?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago

Not really, and there's often slight changes around news cycles that erase after a few weeks. Too early to say if this will actually stick.