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If your state is deeply in the hands of your closer-aligned party, then probably, though down-ballot races are always important to consider too. Even things like school boards.
If your state is deeply in the hands of your most-opposed party, though, you should be aware that flips can and do happen. Our "swing state" system is by no means stable, which states are "swing" changes pretty steadily, and broad waves are still very possible. Additionally, by making a state come closer to even, you can force your opposed party to devote some of their limited resources to defending it in the future. So, you can hurt a party by voting for their opponents even when they have a strong grip.
It's useful to consider a historical context, where over the 2.5 centuries, the elections have shifted every which way. There really is no predicting what the future holds beyond the most immediate, short-term horizon. It is absolutely not stable, though, never has been. It's not intended to be, after all, otherwise we wouldn't have things like term limits.