this post was submitted on 16 Sep 2024
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Image is of China's ambassador to Afghanistan, Zhao Sheng, meeting Taliban Prime Minister Hasan Akhund in September 2023.

I know the Rambo title card is a hoax.

The COTW was chosen in the wake of the aborted sequel to the attempted assassination of Trump being performed by a guy who is VERY enthusiastic about Ukraine, to the point of trying to sneak Afghan soldiers into Ukraine by setting up a house in Pakistan to house them and then further transport them. He also apparently offered to send thousands of Afghan soldiers to Haiti to help them combat gang violence. Whomst among us doesn't have the numbers of thousands of Afghan soldiers on speed-dial. Do you reckon there's a group chat?

Anyway, while there is still no official recognition of the Taliban's government by any country, China has taken a different course than the late USSR and the US - forming economic in-roads, rather than trying their own invasion. This has been a big boon for the struggling country, with various mines and oil and agriculture deals helping keep things barely afloat. A total disintegration of the social fabric of Afghanistan is not in the interest of any of the powers that border it - China, Pakistan, and Iran, with Russia not too far away - so an interesting dynamic of helping-without-official-recognition has been established. I wonder who will be the first country to fully recognize them?


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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
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Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 99 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (4 children)

Nasrallah's speech, courtesy of political_aya on Twitter:

The reason for my speech today is the updates during the past 2 days. I had not intended to speak before October 7 on the anniversary of Al-Aqsa Flood to give an overview and assessment of the past year, but these events require a speech. I must first, before everything, congratulate all Muslims on the birth of the Holy Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), and the birth of his grandson Imam Jaafar Sadeq (AS). We were also meant to commemorate the late Sheikh Hassan Trad today. However, the events do not allow for that.

I must extend my deepest condolences and warmest congratulations to the families of the martyrs, both the ones who rose during the past 2 days, and the ones on the frontlines too. We must also thank the Lebanese authorities, the Ministry of Health, hospitals, clinics, medical centers and organizations, nurses, and doctors. We must also thank everyone who rushed to donate blood and those who offered their organs. We must thank every person who helped transport the wounded to the hospitals. Some people carried them and rushed them to the hospitals, others on motorcycles and their cars. The medical sector is working tirelessly day and night to treat the wounded. One of the blessings of the blood that was shed is the unity we have seen in Lebanon, which we had not seen for a very long time. We extend our thanks to all parties, nations, leadership figures...who condemned this act and offered their condolences, and thank the nations who have sent aid and helped transport the wounded for treatment.

On Tuesday, the "israeli" enemy conducted an attack through detonating pager devices simultaneously. These devices are used by many sectors of Lebanese society, and even in the world, and not only by Hezbollah personnel. On Wednesday, the enemy repeated the attack, detonating walkie-talkie devices. It is not necessary for a brother to be carrying the device to be harmed. It is enough for it to have been set on a table. The enemy has crossed all red lines and all laws in this attack. This is a massive terrorist attack, genocide, a massacre. "The Tuesday & Wednesday massacres" is what we will call them. This is a war crime, a declaration of war...you can call it anything. When the enemy planned out this attack, they assumed there were at least 4,000 pagers spread out across all of Lebanon. This means that the enemy had the intention of murdering 4,000 people in a single minute. By repeating the attack on Wednesday, the enemy had the intention of murdering at least 5,000 human beings. God the Almighty saved us with His Mercy and Generosity. The number of martyrs was lower than the enemy had aimed for because of how the people, ambulances, medical workers...all rushed to save lives. Some pagers were also out of order. Thankfully, this saved many lives.

We formed an extensive investigative committee to study all scenarios, possibilities, and theories, and have reached an almost-definitive conclusion. We are realistic people; this attack was certainly a huge blow on the security and humanitarian level. This attack is unprecedented in the history of Lebanon and our battle against the Zionist enemy, and possibly even the history of the world. This was certainly a huge blow, but this is war; one day our enemy harms us, the other we inflict harm upon them. This enemy is backed by the US and the entire West and has the most advanced technologies recruited for their benefit. I can tell you with utmost certainty that this attack did not break us and will not break us. On the contrary, it will only increase our resolve and determination to continue on in this battle.

Why did the enemy do this? When the blessed Al-Aqsa Flood began, the Southern Lebanese support front was opened. This front has inflicted huge losses upon the enemy since October 8, as they have repeatedly admitted themselves. I am not concerned with what those who do have input or data say, and those who do not follow up on what the enemy says. The enemy cries, "We have lost the North!" They say this is the first time they receive a defeat of this nature in the North. The Southern Lebanese front has been a very effective front alongside the other support fronts. The enemy has repeatedly sent us messages to close this front. They resorted to threats of war, and attempted to differentiate between Lebanon & Gaza. Tuesday afternoon, after the first attack, the enemy sent us a message through official and unofficial channels, threatening that if we do not close our front, they have more in store for us. And so the attack on Wednesday came.

In the name of the martyrs, the wounded, the ones who lost their eyes and palms, and in the name of every person who has taken on the responsibility of supporting Gaza, we tell Netanyahu and Gallant: the Lebanese front will not stop until the war on Gaza ends. Through this attack, the enemy wanted the people of the Resistance to turn against the Resistance. This goal failed on Tuesday and Wednesday when we all saw the stances of the people and the wounded who hope to recover to return to the battlefield. The enemy thought they would destroy the formations and command and leadership units of the Resistance to create a state of chaos and confusion in Hezbollah's leadership. This did not happen for even a moment. What happened these past 2 days did not bend us, nor did it break our spirits or affect our capabilities or leadership. It did not affect our presence on the battlefield. On the contrary, it increased our strength and resolve.

Recently, the entity had been talking about shifting the center of gravity to the North in order to return the settlers. Does Netanyahu think he can achieve that? They think they can create a security zone in South Lebanon so that the settlers can live in peace. I tell Netanyahu: You cannot bring your settlers back to the North. Do as you wish; whatever you do, you will not bring them back unless you end the war on Gaza. This is a challenge between us, and I assure you, by God's will, they will not return.

The commander of the Northern region said their troops will enter South Lebanon. We wish they would do that! It requires massive intelligence efforts to track the troops at the border to target them. It would make our job easier if they came here. We would "welcome" these troops if they came to the South. You may see it as a threat, but to us, this is a historic opportunity! The security zone you dream of in the South will be turned to hell for you troops. You will face the ones you attacked on Tuesday and Wednesday, who have only become more determined to fight.

Allow me to speak with a different tone today, for this attack was done covertly: the reckoning will come, and it will be severe. I will not speak about a date or time. You will know of it when it happens; you will not hear about it before. We will keep plans and intentions for our severe response limited to our tightest circles. You will not hear anything, you shall only see. I hope the Lebanese people hold on to the sense of unity we witnessed the past 2 days, and pay no mind to the petty ones who try to create strife and division.

The enemy's foolish, narcissistic, savage leadership is leading the entity to its demise, to the abyss, God-willing. If they choose to escalate against Lebanon, that will only cause more settlers, these occupiers and land thieves, to flee from the North. I pray to Allah the Almighty to aid our Palestinian people in Gaza, who are being massacred before the world. I pray for the speedy recovery of the wounded to they could return to the battlefield. Your words for us are deeply moving & leave us embarrassed. The enemy does not understand the deep cultural and sentimental relationship the people and the Resistance have. They have failed and will fail to achieve all their goals. God-willing, grand victory awaits us. The days, weeks, months, and maybe even years are between us. This is a huge battle, and it may be a long one.

[–] [email protected] 70 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (5 children)

Interesting observations:

  • The reason why the Israelis did not blow everything all at once was to use the second wave as a threat towards Hezbollah to try and get them to give in, which they did not do
  • Hezbollah's communications and command were not disrupted by the attack, at least not critically
  • Hezbollah's strategy in a war with Israel will likely be to "allow" them to make gains into their territory in order to destroy their formations in known territory with prepared ambushes and such; they will not try to defend the border. The doomers are really gonna have a bad few weeks when they see that Israel's reached X miles in Lebanon. Please keep an eye on your local doomers and make sure they're doing okay during those difficult times.
[–] [email protected] 36 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Hezbollah's communications and command were not disrupted by the attack, at least not critically

This is also pretty obvious by their operations today too.

[–] [email protected] 38 points 3 months ago (1 children)

yeah, it's kinda weird that Hezbollah didn't get the memo from reddit that they've been destroyed and scattered to the winds. somebody should write Nasrallah a letter telling him that continuing to attack Israel is an insult to the Israeli propaganda narrative, which is more real than reality itself

[–] [email protected] 10 points 3 months ago

Nasrallah please strike the reddit headquarters

[–] [email protected] 34 points 3 months ago (1 children)
  • Zionist entity rolls a single tank through southern Lebanon border*

Doomers:

soypoint-1 "DAE think whole western Asia will be jenosided by iof super soldiers and the Samson option destroying all of Europe? China will balkanize btw"

[–] [email protected] 32 points 3 months ago (1 children)

if Iran doesn't send 1 gazillion rockets NOW I've lost all faith in them

[–] [email protected] 24 points 3 months ago

No reason to continue, immediate subjugation of the global south and total submission of the DPRK to Washington are inevitable. China balkanize and US soldiers welcomed as liberators.

[–] [email protected] 34 points 3 months ago

So I guess the primary purpose (but not the only one) for the explosions was just for the sake of inflicting terror after all?

[–] [email protected] 33 points 3 months ago (1 children)

As we've seen in Ukraine, territory isn't what matters in war, it's destroying your enemies resources to fight. Hezbollah will certainly follow that kind of strategy.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (2 children)

Yeah but if you want to use the Ukraine war analogy, Hezbollah is not in the position of Russia, who have air supremacy and are the invading force. Hezbollah would be in a more similar position to Ukraine, with little to no air cover and defending their own territory. Hezbollah will not be able to use a similar strategy to Russia because they do not have the same capabilities as Russia.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 3 months ago

They can disappear and bleed Israel dry though, just like in 2006. Israel cannot tolerate large losses of personnel, Hezbollah can.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 3 months ago

They airstrike cities, and then what? They still need to cross into Lebanon at which point they'll enter the Vietnam lite phase of the war.

Holding territory requires you physically maintain a presence with soldiers and outposts. Calling in airstrikes and drone strikes isn't enough, they just waste money and resources on nothing.

Not only that, but Israel would be in the position of Russia in the early days of the Ukraine war. When they captured loads of territory but had to significantly cut back because Ukraine would dog-walk them to their graves if they actually tried to occupy Ukrainian land.

This was a smart move by Russia and was necessary to achieve their goals, which are to denazify/demilitarize Ukraine, keep it from joining NATO, and install a Russia friendly leader. That's why occupation of Ukrainian land and wonton destruction of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure were avoided.

Unlike Russia however, Isntrael's strategic goals ARE occupation. They don't just want to bring the settlers back to the north, they want to occupy and set up a "safe zone" deep into Lebanese territory.

They must occupy and hold territory, because that's the only way to achieve that goal.

Of all the things a country could do, no matter how large or powerful they are, occupying foreign land is fucking difficult and often results in a protracted war that ends with occupier leaving in body bags.

Russia understood this, that's why they got out of most of Ukraine and switched to attrition warfare to wait out the inevitable Ukrainian front(s) collapsing.

It happened to America in Vietnam and Afghanistan, it happened to the Soviets in Afghanistan. It will happen with Lebanon and Isntrael as well.

[–] [email protected] 41 points 3 months ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 36 points 3 months ago

He's electable if you vote for him

[–] [email protected] 38 points 3 months ago

Nasrallah's speeches are honestly so well written. Great overview of what's going on yet concise, rousing, dude's got rizz.

[–] [email protected] 31 points 3 months ago

Uncritical support to the heroes of the resistance in their struggle against the genocidal zionist entity. Glory to the martyrs. fidel-salute-big