this post was submitted on 18 Oct 2024
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Today is just the third day of early in person voting and it's already at ~20% of the entire 2020 vote (both early and on election day)

Make sure to get out and vote!

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[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 month ago (1 children)

They don't release exit polling until after polls close on election day

There is not direct data on who they are voting for, only demographic data. For instance, you can see that currently around 55% of early voters in Georgia are women. In some states you can also look at party registration but that doesn't tell you everything (people often don't update it) and a large chunk are not registered, but that can get you a good idea

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Thank you, all great points. So overall, what do the demographics suggest in this case?

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 month ago (2 children)

General consesus seems to be the early vote data looks good for dems overall. Some suggest that there maybe a slight increase in republicans switching from election day voting to early, but otherwise looks pretty good. Honestly would have expected more of that given that republicans theoretically made it a focus of their get out the vote to get people to vote earlier

Analyzing early voting data can be a little tricky because of you can only look at those indirect metrics. I mean even with party registration it doesn't tell you if republicans are choosing not to vote for trump which the republican oversampling polling suggests we might see more of compared to 2020

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago (1 children)

The dems don’t have this in the bag, though. Wins and losses may be decided by a few thousand votes, so people need to get out and vote!

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

Of course! My early vote for Kamala in Arizona went out a couple weeks ago!

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

I really appreciate the indepth response. Thanks much.