Image is from this SCMP article.
Much of the analysis below is sourced from Michael Roberts' great website.
Japan's ruling parliamentary coalition, consisting of the LDP (purple) and it's junior coalition partner Komeito (in light pink) have lost their ruling majority. They have ruled post-war Japan for almost its entire history. The LDP is currently led by Shigeru Ishiba after Kishida stood down due to a corruption scandal, and ties to the Unification Church.
While geopolitical factors (over the cold war between the US and China, etc) may have played a role, by far the biggest reason for this result in the poor economic conditions over the past few years. Inflation has risen and real wages have fallen, with little relief for the working class via things like tax reductions. While inequality in Japan is not as extreme as in America, it is still profound, with the top 10% possessing 60% of the wealth, while the bottom 50% possess just 5%.
Shinzo Abe previously tried to boost economic performance through monetary easing and fiscal deficits, while Kishida ran on a "new capitalism" which rejected Abe's neoliberalism and promised to reduce inequality. Nothing substantial has resulted from all this, however, other than increasing corporate wealth. Innovation continues to fall, and domestic profitability is low, resulting in decreasing investment at home by Japanese corporations. Labour productivity growth has only slightly picked up since the mid-2000s and is falling again. The rate of profit has fallen by half since the 1960s, and Japan has been in a manufacturing recession - or very close to it - since late 2022. In essence: there is no choice but between stagnation or decline.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Fed accounts are bubbling. Rumours of an iranian counter strike.
Earlier today, rumours that ballistic missiles were being transported in Iran.
This evening, rumours that a large scale UAV attack with "hundreds" of UAVs is to be launched from Iraq.
Take with pinch of salt but something might happen.
In other rumour mill news, Ukraine claims they've killed 7 DPRK troops and captured one in the Kursk region.
Hope they know what they're doing if that's the case. I feel like they might be playing into Israel's hands.
I'm 99% sure isisrael's cards (and usa's) are already on the table. The failure of their strike to do any real damage has exposed their weakness. Now is the time for Iran to solidify their deterrence and put the entity on the ropes so Hezbollah and Al-Quds brigades can push the advantage.
I just wonder if the strike was deliberately weak to lure Iran into responding and making them seem like aggressors. Though I guess it doesn't matter since Israel will keep prodding regardless.
isisrael proudly announced the strike and how many aircraft they used. There is no mistaking that isisrael made an offensive action against Iran. Iran has every legal right to respond to an act of aggression no matter how feeble or small.
If ballistic missiles are to be launched from Iraq, that could suggest the use of missiles with Electro-Optical seekers, that will be able to provide more accuracy in a GPS denied environment than the missiles used in Operation True Promise II which only had GPS and inertial guidance. These missiles have a shorter range though, so Iraq could be used as a launching point. This is all hearsay though.
Rumour doesn't seem to be ballistic missiles from iraq, just drones. Ballistic missile movement is apparently within Iran itself, so probably transportation to launch sites.
Could be interesting if they do move some to Iraq though.
The source that seems to have spawned all these rumours suggests ballistic missiles being launched from Iraq though
Axios, 31st October 2024 - Iran preparing major retaliatory strike from Iraq within days, Israeli intel suggests
Unreliable source of course, but that's the rumour.
This DPRK story doesn't really make any sense. Russia has the manpower to increase troops, why would it import Korean troops. More importantly, why would DPRK send troops in more than an advisory capacity?
My theory is that DPRK is very serious about preparing for war and they want combat experience.
Russia on the other hand might simply see it as an opportunity to alleviate pressure on its troops.
That's plausible, but we can come up with plausible theories until the cows come home. It would be nice though to have even a shred of evidence that this is actually happening before we start theorizing about the why.
I agree. I've said as much about evidence, haven't seen a single piece of footage of DPRK troops actually in combat yet.
The latest episode of Radio War nerd talks about the reason why dprk is on the front.
His theory is basically for engineering (it is unlikely to use them for combat since the language barrier would make it difficult to coordinate operations) The front is ww1 trench warfare and the dprk has some savoir faire with tunneling (according to the guest one town the russians was able to take was by tunnelling under an enemy position to blow it up).
Inb4 hamas tunnel jokes, the guest also implied that dprk assisted hezbollah with their tunnel infrastructure and this tactical knowledge was also absorbed by Hamas.
The other reason is that Russia and the DPRK might have a defence pact and it signal to south Korea and Japan that Russia has a stake in the peninsula if the situation goes hot.