electoralism

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US Election Day November 2024 Containment Megathread (hexbear.net)

submitted 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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put all of your election posting here so it doesn't bother anyone else!

from @[email protected]:

For Agitprop purposes, I’m asking comrades to help aggregate any and all effortpost responses, critiques, or general thoughts that you have seen or written pertaining to yesterday’s U.S. election that you think have standalone value for discussion either online or IRL.

I made a post for that purpose here, and ideally it can be used not only for general discussion, but as a reference for well thought out responses in discussions about the election to save all of us some brainpower.

No shitposts please, as we’d like to highlight some comrades’ actual effort in constructing responses or analysis, but humor is 100% welcome to help make your point!

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[–] [email protected] 40 points 1 month ago (2 children)

I'm genuinely wondering a bit if pollsters are so terrified of losing their legitimacy any further that they're decided to just weigh the polls to roughly 50/50. Like they do have to do some math to try to guess what demographics are less likely to answer polls or whatever but after 2016 and 2020 the process probably looks insane.

[–] [email protected] 23 points 1 month ago

I was wondering the same thing (especially with Nate Bronze), although it's probably because so many of the swing state polls have been within margin of error that it's really not possible to make a definitive prediction beyond a coin flip.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 month ago

It does seem like people are becoming less confident in wizards and prognosticators this time around.