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Republicans will vote for Trump. Let's not get caught up in fantasy here, that party is focused and united (albeit not disciplined or frugal).
It's gonna be a turnout game for democrats for the foreseeable future, Republicans are not splitting, they are a cult.
(I would love to be wrong).
They'll vote for R regardless of the name next to it
It’s possible that Trump will get a guilty verdict in one of his felony trials between Super Tuesday in March and the national convention in July. It’s likely that Trump will have the election sewn up by Super Tuesday. The trial news will be a shitshow in any case.
They made the Leopards Ate My Face final boss when they refused to go after Trump for his multiple criminal conspiracies. They were so afraid of losing in 2020 that they went all in to support him, because they ceded the voters to him, because at the end of the day they have no policies to sell. It’s just the fear, and Trump does that better than all of them put together.
So honestly, I don’t think they can win with Trump. There are states (and seats) where a shift of 5% of Rs and something similar in Is will flip the state, and Dems have been on a gotv speed run with the abortion laws on the table. I don’t think the poll models are going to take into account just how weird this election will be.
On the other hand, they have fucking DeSantis. DeSantis couldn’t defeat anyone. Still, some of those DeSantis voters are never going to support Trump, so even if DeSantis drops out, he won’t get 100% of the DeSantis (or other) supporters.