this post was submitted on 04 Sep 2023
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Image is of container ships waiting outside the canal. While there is usually some number of ships waiting for passage, the number has increased significantly lately.


In order to move ships through the Panama Canal, water is needed to fill the locks. The water comes from freshwater lakes, which are replenished by rainfall. This rainfall hasn't been coming, and Lake Gatun, the largest one, is at near record low levels.

Hundreds of ships are now in a maritime traffic jam, unable to cross the canal quickly. Panama is attempting to conserve water and have reduced the number of transits by 20% per day, among other measures. The Canal's adminstrators have warned that these drought conditions will remain for at least 10 months.

It is unlikely that global supply chains will be catastrophically affected, at least this year. Costs may increase for consumers in the coming months, especially for Christmas, but by and large goods will continue to flow, around South America if need be. Nonetheless, projecting trends over the coming years and decades, you can imagine how this is yet another nudge by climate change towards dramatic economic, environmental, and political impacts on the world at large. It also might prompt discussions inside various governments about nearshoring, and the general vulnerability of global supply chains - especially as the United States tries, bafflingly, to go to war with China.


After some discussion in the last megathread about building knowledge of geopolitics, some of us thought it might be an interesting idea to have a Country of the Week - essentially, I/we choose a country and then people can come in here and chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants, related to that country. More detail in this comment.

Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.

Okay, look, I got a little carried away. Monday's update usually covers the preceding Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, but I went ahead and did all of last week. If people like a more weekly structure then I might try that instead, if not, then I'll go back to the Mon-Wed-Fri schedule.

Links and Stuff


The bulletins site is down.

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists

Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can.


Resources For Understanding The War


Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.

Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.


Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.

https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

Almost every Western media outlet.

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


Last week's discussion post.


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[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Could u ramble a bit about the Naksa and ba3thism ? Always been something I wanted to know more about but never dug into

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Okay, so, I am mostly gonna talk on the Syrian Ba3th (بعث, means "mission, rebirth, evangelium") bc I am the most knowledgeable on those guys. It wouldn't be an exaggeration to say the ba3th started as a nationalist circle led by Michel Aflaq and a guy named Zaki Arsuzi with clear nazi-curious positions or open racism that was repulsive even in the 1930ies. Those were more common in the Levante than most people would like to admit, from the Syrian Social nationalist Party (SSNP) to even Zionist groups, communists being pretty much the exception (berdly-smug), the main impetus being more opportunistic anti-colonialism that didnt want to rely on the colonized alone and naivety or ignorance about fascism, not outright developed fascist positions.

The party was pretty illegal until the end of the French mandate, its activities restricted to violent anti-colonial demonstrations. It always considered itself a pan-arab party, so it founded itself in a national (pan-arab) and a regional (individual arab countries) structure even before taking off. It always had some appeal for christians and non-muslim groups outside of Palestine and Lebanon, who saw secular nationalism as a way to become equal co-citizens with the muslim population around them. It was also very attractive to merchants, students and intellectuals who were fed up with the incompetent and corrupt old guard of Arab Nationalism, mostly landowners, a bunch of propped-up clerics (see al-husseini in Jerusalem) and so on who all had cooperated with the west and zionism and bickered among themselves, finally getting smashed to bloody pieces in the war leading up to the Nakba, 1947 and 1948.

Independence 1946 allowed for some activities. The party was not just running on anti-colonialism, but on a moral message about regeneration and rebirth. The very christian elements of ba3th came from Michel Aflaq, a christian. Individual party members would go around villages and assist however they could, often as doctors. This led to some mild success. The party's extremely elitist and idealist approaches kept it from taking off for a considerable amount of time.

Immediately after the disastrous failures against Israel, Syria went through 3 presidents in a single year, all militarily couped, leading to military guy Adib Shishakli taking power. He banned all parties. Big Mistake. In illegality and exile, the ba3th fused with the Arab Socialist Party, that had been pretty successful in Syria organizing peasants. It also led to the more differentiation between the national and regional levels. This led to it slowly taking more socialist positions and the, albeit not very ideologically firm (for some exceptions) socialist wing of the ba3th to become stronger at the expense of the more disgusting nationalists. After Shishkali suspended the constitution, the rest of the military had enough and deposed him with the support of a coalition of basically every party.

This led to tense back and forth, I am already taking too long. in 1958 the ba3th was in charge, but in a politically very insecure position and fused with Gamal Abdel Nasser's Egypt to hold onto power, somewhat against its own will. Today, many Arabs will blame the period of the United Arab republic failing on "cultural differences". It was, quite frankly, Nasser's massive and monumental ego that didn't allow for anyone outside of his Arab Socialist Union Party and his desire to see Egypt on the top of any unified Arab state. Not that the Ba3th was not also full of people with massive egos, who were seething with rage at the fact that Nasser dissolved the party bis his order, which some branches ignored. In any case, syria was getting the short end of the deal, so the military couped and deposed the ba3th 1961. The refounding and reorganization of the ba3th in the wake of this led to hasty promotions along ethnoreligious lines, which were still the predominant form of loyality and social connection during that time for a host of reasons. These promotions absolutely destroyed party discipline.

The two trends of the military routinely intervening in syrian politics in mostly unbloody coups and promotions and loyality running along the lines of a religious community (which worked very different from attending mass/friday prayer once a week, imagine if your leftist sect was inheritable and you couldn't convert away easily) dominated the 60ies. The ba3th couped itself into power again, this time led by the more socialist oriented party members and officers, who had their disticnt subgroup in the party and heavily recruited along religious lines as well. A Sunni leader would have Sunni soldiers across the ranks behind him who would listen to him instead of their actual superior, a druze had druze guys etc. This ragtag group decided that the party was gonna be hardcore communist, goddammit, so they mobilized all their support to get a huge bunch of motions through during the party's congress which used really communist language and had a bunch of points about how things were to be done. This was mostly ignored in general, party discipline having become pretty much a joke. Michel Aflaq, a nazi-curious petty bourgeois dreamer, was NOT happy, still. The increasing split and infighting within the party became charged with sectarian (in a religious sense) feelings bc of the power dynamics (clueless) with the sectarian lines of loyalty. Aflaq and his dudes got kicked and went to Iraq where Saddam ate them for breakfast (I don't know the details there, but Saddam was a more ruthless, more powerful, more cunning politican than Aflaq for sure).

Open Sectarianism was outlawed by the secular ba3th, but the suspicion of secretly being sectarian was often projected onto others. This led to more and more coups and purges by the military, often along sectarian lines, so after some time, sunnis, christians, and finally the druze went out, until only the Alawite leadership was left by 1967. Repeatedly purging your military is not good for its abilities, ask stalin-comical-spoon.

So when the war with Israel 1967 became inevitable, the military officer Salah Jadid was in charge of Syria. He had a decent socialist program and was puppetered by the communist group of the "three doctors", but was pretty fucking clueless himself (he called using the Palestinian bataillions loyal to syria a "people's war" in reference to Mao). The Arab armies lost in a hilariously bad manner. I can't overstate that, there is no way around that. I don't have details on the war itself. I only know It was a depressing fucking curbstomp for Syria. Egypt had some chances, had its airforce survived. But the Syrian front was a total wash. Salah Jadid was a dead man walking from that point on. Hafiz al-Asad, a fellow Alawite, prepared his coup and took power 1970. He quickly cemented some rule, cut some deals with the sunni petty bourgeoisie, who didn't thank him at all for that. I am exhausted now and need to start my day. I skimmed over a lot of details and probably misremembered a bunch of stuff, read Patrick Seale and Hanna Batatu for more.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago

Happy to provide, Hanna Batatu is the communist, Patrick Seale the Asad-fan, but they have both good takes and save you a bunch of lib brain worms. You should look at some lib stuff for that time, but it is mostly these guys that are essential