this post was submitted on 04 May 2023
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GenZedong
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We don't need to escalate the situation, gotta say this seem way to convenient that when Kiev makes contact with Beijing about a peace talks this happens
Rash escalation would indeed be a mistake. Provocations like this happen because the trajectory on the actual battlefield is not going the way that Ukraine's western handlers were hoping. It is an attempt to make Russia make emotionally motivated changes to their strategy.
The thing to focus on now is the defeat of the upcoming "counter-offensive": https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/operational-update-4
This doesn't mean that another wave of large scale missile strikes/bombings is out of the question, and Russia may well choose to claim that these are retaliation for the terrorist act, but they will hit meaningful military targets like concentrations of troops, equipment and logistics hubs.
As for the "talks" between Kiev and Beijing, if they can even be called that, they are a formality, nothing more. No one expects anything to come of such initiatives because Kiev are in no position to negotiate or be negotiated with. The ones making the decisions sit in Washington and Brussels. They are the ones who will eventually sit down at the negotiating table with Russia, mediated by China.
Didn't Zelensky straight up told Xi they want Crimea back? Not exactly surprising since that is the official position of UA government and he couldn't say anything else since i bet some ears were listening to that call, but it does not left any margin for real negotiations.
That just shows how un-serious they are. The clowns in Kiev know that that demand is a non-starter for Russia. There will sooner be a nuclear war than Russia giving up Crimea. China knows it too. And so does Washington. All that it does is confirm to the Chinese that the Ukrainians and their puppetmasters in the West have no intention of negotiating.
But China needs to go through the motions to show to the rest of the world that they are the reasonable adult in the room. They can say: hey, at least we tried, and we will not be the ones to blame for the continued destruction of Ukraine. It also helps Russia justify why it needs to keep fighting because clearly it is dealing with irrational people who do not want peace.
Show it to whom, exactly? The global south either knew that already or cares little for some whities killing each other somewhere far away. The west doesn't care and neither do western-brained libs worldwide
To the fence sitters of 3rd world, there's plenty of them.
Yeah exactly what i was thinking too, especially with how seriously is Chinese diplomacy treated right now. That action with Iran and KSA did a huge impression even in the west, after all it's western media who were telling the story how they are natural enemies.