this post was submitted on 20 Nov 2023
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At a certain point - particularly given how comically padded the US military's provisioning has become - you can't just wage war with whomever you want. There's a real cost to all this, and the US economy has been eating it for decades. War might look good on a balance sheet for a particular business quarter-to-quarter, but its shit for the overall health of an industrial economy long term.
We simply cannot be at war with every single recalcitrant country in Asia, at once, all of the time. That's a big reason why we pulled out of Afghanistan and Iraq. Its a big reason why we've shed much of our zeal for Ukraine after a couple of years of conflict. Its a big reason why we backed off treating China as an existential threat. Nobody seems to be interested in the African West Coast anymore, either, despite the wave of coups and uprisings from Niger to Senegal. Nevermind Ethiopia running hot-and-cold with Tigray.
It is entirely too much for the US to manage, particularly when the BRICS are no longer willing to play along.
That's far more than the private companies want to spend. And while the US could foot the bill, there simply aren't enough ex-military contractors to go around for this many ships.
Someone needs to tell the current regime that. On the other hand, no don't tell them anything. Let them continue.
Again, there's a reason Biden had to commit to pulling us out of Afghanistan. There's a reason we're stumbling and backpeddling on our support for Ukraine. There's a reason we didn't try and invade Brazil or continue our campaign to harass Cuba or further ratchet tensions in the Straight of Taiwan.
Blinken is at the end of his rope and knows it. That's why he did the multi-state tour following genocide in Gaza. He can't afford to divert assets to a full blown fight with Israel at the center. Not after Iraq and Iran have aligned, the Saudis are going their own way, and half of West Africa is in revolt.
Yes I know all of that but I suspect Biden doesn't, even if Blinken does. It really seems like they've bitten off more than they can chew here and now the Biden regime is stuck and facing a several potential checkmate scenarios. The problem is that he can't get out now. I suspect Blinken is at his wits end with Joe's stubborn antics and tantrums. You can see by his cringe at Joe calling Xi a Dictator for example.
Some good analysis (non ML) on the pieces on the board here imo. Stick with it, it gets better as it goes on.
Love me some quality analysis.
Man. Just a few years ago, I've never imagine witnessing the downfall of an Empire in real time.
BTW, overexpansion and militarily overspending was one of the causes of Rome's downfall. Does it make the USA Rome 2.0?
Lol yea America totally can't just go to war with whoever they want for nebulous justifications.
As a counter example I would point you to the last 60 years of American foreign policy.
The last 60 years have been a great point in my favor. Since Korea, we've been posting Ls every 20 years. And its cost us heavily, both in modern industry (which we've shipped out to countries that aren't in perpetual wartime footing) and in domestic infrastructure (roads/bridges collapsing, aviation industry in retreat, silicon sector morbund, bio-tech sector lagging Cuba). We export raw materials and import finished goods. The polar opposite of what an imperial superpower is supposed to be doing.
The only two finished products we produce reliably are fossil fuels and fission bombs. Everything outside of that is FIRE sector speculation. That's been the consequence of US foreign policy. We've surrendered all the bedrock industries that gave us international footing at the end of WW2. Not good.
Oh yea we deffinitly stopped doing the same thing over and over and over again right after everybody collectively agreed Korea was a failure.
Oh wait, half the country still insists we won Korea and Vietnam and 95% of them supported the war on terror.
I mean, yes. Case in point, no more ground invasions of superpowers after MacArthur fucked up.
Not the half that actually has to fight these wars.