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I don't know about 'lie,' but it's certainly a misrepresentation. For decades, there were so few retirees that SS taxes were billions more than SS payments, and all of that surplus bought Treasury bonds. i.e.: loans to run the rest of the government. Payments now are running around $100B/year more than taxes ($10B if you include interest on those bonds), which is around 8% of tax revenues. At that rate, the last of the bonds gets sold in 2034, and something will need to get done about the 8% imbalance.
The misleading part is letting people infer that "running out of money" means no money to pay beneficiaries, like SS is some kind of bank account. Fixing the deficit isn't that hard, though. Cut benefits by 8%. Raise SS tax rate to 8.25%. Raise the income cap to $300k. None of those would be especially popular, and there's no reason to do any of them now, because there's still nearly $3T of Treasuries sitting in the SSA account. In the meantime, fearmongering about the issue is a great way to turn out the 65+ crowd and near-retirees, and a great way to demoralize the under-40 crowd.
Correct me if I'm wrong but you don't need to raise SS rates at all, just lift the cap. Simple. 168k is the max for 2024 and that seems absolutely silly nowadays.
It's hilarious that something that was designed to be the everyman's social security net operates on a regressive tax.
What about dropping the tax rate by a meaningful amount and raising the income cap to $1M?
I realize that most CEOs get modest salaries and almost all of their income from capital gains, but a move like this could bring in more revenue and be popular by reducing the tax burden on middle class and working class Americans.
If we're dreaming, it'd be great to do away with OASDI as a separate, non-progressive, capped income tax and just roll it into the regular Federal rate. Bump the 10% bracket to 12%, the 22% to 26% and 37% to 45%. Hell, add a couple points to the CG rate.
But they sold OASDI to Americans like some kind of insurance policy - it's right in the name - and they've been trying to turn that fiction into a personal savings account for decades. Social safety nets just don't fit the mythos of strong, independent American who don't need no gubmint.