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Florida is different because so many older, more conservative retirees move to Florida. And they vote. If it wasn't for that, Florida would probably have been pretty solidly blue at this point.
On the other hand, that has opened up other states for Democrats, e.g. Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Florida is red because of gerrymandering.
Biden lost the popular vote in Florida by one or two percent. IRC De Santis won the state by less than 1%. Voters have often and overwhelmingly voted in favour of 'left-wing' ballot initiatives too.
It should be a swing state.
In any case, conservative retirees may be moving to Florida, but they're also mor likely to leave Florida and this mortal coil than the average voter.
Or on occasion, the Supreme Court decides that Fla votes R for them.
And wouldn't you know it, some of the people in that case are now on the court
*illegal gerrymandering
Let's not forget, Florida passed an anti-gerrymandering law. DeSantis straight up ignored it
Desantis was re-elected with almost 60% of the vote. Trump did only win by less than 2% but turnout was almost 30% lower in 2022 than it was in 2020.
He won by less than a percentage point in 2018. When he ran against Charlie Crist in 2022 he won with close to 60%, but that was more about Crist being a garbage candidate who stumped for Sarah Palin happily in 2008 but decided the Republican party was irredeemable in 2010 (after he lost a Republican primary to Marco Rubio). Run someone who isn't a transparent hack against DeSantis and he's totally beatable, even with Florida voters.
Maybe but the one thing I’ve learned in my time as an American is that any time you’re counting on Florida for anything, you’re gonna be very disappointed.
Chlamydia?
50% of Florida voters couldn't be bothered to go vote in the last election. Stop thinking that everything can be blamed on gerrymandering. In even the most heavily gerrymandered districts, Dems could win if only they could get voters off their asses and out to the polls. To be clear, I am NOT saying it isn't an issue, but I am sick of far too many on the Left using gerymandering or the EC as their crutch as to why they lose elections when they do not have a focused platform or compelling candidates in far too many races.
You're right about bad candidates. Crist was just a terrible choice. I think the old school thought he was a safe choice, like Biden, but he's so boring and already had his chance at being governor. Republicans do outnumber Dems slightly, but Biden got more votes in 2020 than DeSantis got in 2022. The potential votes are there, the Dems just need to earn them and a candidate that people can get enthusiastic about is a start.
You have a point.
I suspect going on about gerrymandering too much, and inadvertently convincing some democratic voters they can't win because of gerry mandering, isn't helping either.
It becomes a crutch... "oh, why should we bother to go vote, when we know we will lose?" or worse yet, it undermines democracy in general by making people think the system is totally rigged. Those are the kinds of arguments that clowns like Trump use. I am not saying that everything is fair. Far from it, but apathy is one of the biggest weapons that fascist use to make people not want to go vote. Voter turnout is already pitiful - we can't afford to lose more voters.
Yeah. I have a related degree and this is the kind of thing Cambridge Analytica did. Big data scraping, pop it all into SPSS to see what predicts voting behaviour, then target voter demographics that'll vote against your client with propaganda that makes them cynical.
It's really hard to make them vote for your guy, it's easier to convince them to not vote against him.
Hell, I'd argue that even if the system is largely rigged, you need the electorate to believe the lie that it's not to at least stand at least some chance at keeping the fascists out.
Democrats also chase after middle class votes when they should be in every fast food joint, retail chain, and other shitty minimum wage job, advocating for inflation-tied minimum wage increases, strengthened protections for organized labor, etc.
(they don't do this because they are a centrist party that doesn't want the US to have the quality of life enjoyed by those in Western Europe)
This is such bullshit that blames voters instead of blaming political parties for failing to reach them and speak to their needs and issues. Democrats would get voters to the polls if they gave them something to vote FOR as opposed to AGAINST. Isn't it always interesting that a Republican minority in government seems to exert power and influence that their Democratic minority counterparts can't? Democrats are woefully inept at combating fascism and I hold them responsible for the likes of Desantis after years of compromising with a cabal of theocatic nationalists that have been hell-bent on turning the US into Christian Iran.
"Vote for me and your life won't get any worse than it already is!" is not inspiring, and fear only motivates the people directly in the line of fire and the most empathetic of others.