chapotraphouse

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2024 Predictions (hexbear.net)

submitted 8 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Half-Life 3 announced. America collapses before its released in 2031

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[–] [email protected] 11 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Converting this to decimal odds like a normal person:

AI fake fools a politician who complains on TV: 1.5

Political assassination anywhere in the world: 2.8

Joe Biden dies: 2.5

A VP becomes president: 4 (why is this less likely than Biden kicking the bucket?)

Legal battle for whether Israel pledges trump free speech: 2

Israel wins the legal battle: 5

A fascist doesn't become president: 1001

Bitcoin's price changes by $40,000: 3

Retail real estate prices collapse: 4

Retail real estate gets bailed out: 7

Any once in a lifetime economic collapse: 3

Any once in a lifetime weather event: 3

US involvement in an African military conflict:4

[–] [email protected] 5 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

What I should have done for that VP becomes president is Trump wins and then dies for a big 500 odds payout ~~alongside a sizeable Biden dies at any point this year for a 100 payout (which is on there)~~