This year really is just gonna be us swinging from election to election, I suppose. I feel Lenin's beaming red eyes on me.
Up next on our electoral tour is Portugal. The current government - a coalition of the center-left Socialists and the center-right Social Democrats - has been mired in corruption scandals, resulting in a general election being called a mere two years after the last one. The fascist and vaguely populist Chega party has gained significant support over the last two years due to the economic hardships. Yesterday, the Social Democrats secured a narrow win of 79 seats compared to the Socialists' 77. Chega, in third place at 48, would appear to be the best candidate for a coalition, though the leader of the Social Democrats has said that they would refuse a coalition with them due to their xenophobic views. Regardless, the fascist surge is worrying, if expected.
Portugal's economy is going pretty badly even as European countries go, with little growth in productivity or investment over the last decade. The origins of this crisis date back to Portugal making the euro their national currency in the early 2000s, thus surrendering their ability to control their own currency, becoming reliant on investment from Germany and France, and suffering greatly in the 2012 European debt crisis. Unemployment and low wages spurred emigration; in 2013, the youth employment rate was about 40%; this has only come down to 25% recently and is increasing again. The government is heavily reliant on debt for public spending, with a debt-to-GDP ratio skyrocketing to over 100% in the two decades since the turn of the millennium. The capitalist sector is simply not profitable enough and hasn't been for 40 years, which is only a problem if you are a capitalist economy. For more on the Portuguese economy, check out Michael Roberts' recent analysis, from which I obtained a lot of this information.
Inside Portugal is the same story playing out across much of Europe. A failing center or center-left political party, unable to cope with the economic troubles of the last few years due to absolute obedience to neoliberal policies. A fascist party rising, but with no alternative economic plan, hoping that perhaps oppressing minorities and going after "wokeism" will make their God, The Economy, rain blessings down on them again.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Portugal! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
so whatcha thinking newsmega, will russia
a) bend the knee after elections (pros: porkies, libness of ruling class, stopping bloodshed. cons: ukraine will rearm for round 2 immediately, look like a bunch of libs)
b) or continue (pros: chance to get ukraine to truly comply via couple of maidans, more territory (?doubtful +, as its poor as shit), cons (more bloodshed, west becoming more unhinged in general, joker mode possibility of trump going wild)
I’m not sure I’m following you here. The RF presidential election isn’t going to have much effect on the war imo, if that’s what you’re asking. Also I wouldn’t characterize the territory of the Donbas and surrounding regions as “poor as shit”. It’s some of the best farmland in Europe, and it’s also the biggest industrial region on the Ukraine. The people and social infrastructure in that region have been relatively impoverished since the ‘91 counterrevolution, but it is actually very valuable territory.
I mean infrastructure is old and broken, and infrastructure is expensive, but also they destroy every town cause ukraine makes every town urban fighting central.
Idk, if russian porkies/diplomats planned to do their infamous dealmaking, before the election is bad time, after election is whatever time, people will chill over next 6 years.
I’m just confused over differing in what russia does (preparing, military production/recruiting etc), what russia says (let’s talk bros), what russia (allegedly) agreed to in previous talks. Talks are aligned with kicking the can, doings - with continuing on
Yeah it’s difficult to imagine the RF making the same kind of investment in the Donbas that the USSR did after it was destroyed in the Second World War. It might be telling to look at how they are rebuilding in Mariupol.
They will probably rebuild it up to the standard of most of Russia, which is moderately developed but still somewhat alienated and impoverished. Better than those regions were ever going to get under Ukraine or EU though.
Why would Russia surrender when it’s finally winning in a very decisive manner? Russia will continue until Ukraine collapses or unconditionally surrenders
Because they are liberals, and not surrender, sign ceasefire without any control mechanisms for ukraine, along line of fighting
Russia didn’t sign any liberal peace deals with FSA and ISIS in Syria. They obliterated them and de-nazified the country.
Russia didn’t sign any liberal peace deals with the color revolutionaries in Belarus or Kazakhstan. They crushed them.
Russia will complete their mission to the best of their ability as long as Putin is in charge, that man hates the west now and he hates Ukraine and he hates Nazis. The only thing I can see that would lead to a premature ceasefire and “kicking the can down the road” is if they lost the backing of India/China/Iran, who are securing their back. Or Putin dying and being replaced by some cronie without his big picture perspective.
I actually think it’s more likely India or China will balk before Russia does.
fortunately Putin has hardened his heart and increased his attacks
All goals of the SMO will be fulfilled
Can't see them doing that without at least having all the claimed territories and preferably having taken Kharkov. obviously a maximalist treaty would ask for Odessa but Putin would settle for the left bank of the Dneipr.
But that’s still not solving problem of ukraine existing in some “nazi collaborators were based actually” reality. It’s not a problem for baltics, who have population of 1 million, it is a problem with ukraine, which, without even kharkov, would still be 30 millions large.
all the nationalist regiments have been devastated, tens of thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of prominent nazis are now dead. There has not been de-nazification at this scale since WW2 and post WW2 actions by Soviets/Yugoslavia. Ukraine is running out of men, and it's running out of Nazis. Nazis from around the world are volunteering to go to Ukraine to get themselves killed by Russians, just like jihadists from around the world went to Syria to get themselves killed by Russians. The Russian general who ran the operations in Mauripol and Avdiivka did them in such a way as to entrap as many nationalists as possible, using the areas as bait and leaving the re-supply routes open. There's a conscious effort to track these people and aim Khinzals and Iskanders right at their locations.
yeah they are so dead they are now in ukraine, they've traded away like half of their mariupol nazi catch. This is actually first sign they are not serious about this part tbh, they would have lost them during transport if they cared
it's not like a) was even on the table really but now that Belgorod was attacked? russia won't stop any time soon, probably.
consider shapes of istanbul from wapo though - slight demilitarization, abandoning everything except crimea and dnr, no denazification, no nato. Like only west being self-assured dickheads stopped them from option (a)
well yeah, because that was arguably their plan a. do a thunder run across ukraine, expect the state to fold (like it did in 2014), and intimidate the ukrainians to return to the negotiation table. but that was a pre-war, pre-sanctions plan. the west told the ukrainians they wouldn't offer security guarantees if they negotiated, and the ukrainians didn't fold as they did in 2014. now we've had 2 years of war on our hands and, frankly, a ceasefire would be the greatest threat not to putin but to everyone who's a part of the permanent russian state.
The thing is they still do "we will negotiate without conditions" thingy, which makes it slightly mad. If i were russia i would say "we'll negotiate after you admit fascism collaborationism of your heroes (oun) and return neutrality in constitution". Otherwise denazification (which is cynical rhetorical cover up) becomes even more cynical (cause you don't even plan to use it), and it will remain a problem in education.
Even if they arrive at some sort of agreeement without oun condemnation, they'll get same bonkers ukraine in 10 years, which will do militarization via doing pmc work for usa. like i can see it, thus they can see it, thus they are libs who are ready to kick can down the road (or they are doing civility bits for doing option (b))
The Ukrainian government did fold, the Russians supposedly have signed peace treaties with Ukraine. It’s just that the west was able to convince them they could take Russia on.
They were, allegedly, on the verge of finalizing the draft treaty and signing it from what I remember. We can't know how true that really is though. Until we have real historical access to diaries and internal communications we won't know how many people in Ukraine were willing to sign it and how many people were just going through the motions waiting for more western aid so that they could kill more works.
We mostly understand Boris Johnson was a key figure in the NATO war push, but it's possible Ukraine was never really serious in those negotiations.
I’m pretty sure we’re going to see it when Russia does their trials after all this is over. There’s really no way they aren’t already building a case once they decide to Nuremberg all these stupid fucks in Ukraine. And yeah I understand the sentiment that Ukraine was just lying about the treaty if they did sign it like with the Minsk treaties, but I will say we should keep in mind that the reason the Minsk treaties were tossed aside by Ukraine so easily was because they were working under the assumption that they were going to make the first move and invade the Donbas (which Russia also claims to have proof of as well) it’s a completely different situation when you’re the one being invaded. So yeah I believe they were probably signing that in good faith until Boris Johnson arrived. Really the fact that Boris Johnson had to physically go there to convince them says it all.
I can understand your view on that, but I think the important Ukrainians will flee as, uh, something. Not sure what they'll call themselves really, government in exile or maybe political refugees? Anyone who stays will be a moron and they'll all be selling each other out in what will partly be a real war crimes trial and partially be a show trial. I don't expect the west to help in any way because they wouldn't want to "legitimize" putler or whatever. NATO also still has some escalation in them so it's impossible to know how this all ends, too. We can only hope for the best really.
Good point definitely. I think Russia is at the point where they have to make a decision on what they’re going to do about the leadership. There’s gotta be a reason the leadership hasn’t been Khinzaled yet.
When I say fold I mean a total military collapse from the getgo. That at least didn't happen. The Ukrainian political class was seemingly ready to sign a deal then, but the State as a whole did not fold as hard as it did in 2014. On the contrary, it managed to overwhelm part of the small russian invasion with a lot of mobilized bodies. I don't think it would have managed that in 2014, pre military build up.
So all in all when Boris Johnson and the other western leaders told Ukrainians to send bodies to the front and fight at all costs, the Ukrainian government had something to work with.
After reading your comment and replies I want to address your thoughts and concerns. Putin has been very clear that Russia is a sovereign state and will no longer be prostrating itself to the west. Russia will be seeking its own national interest and will not submit itself to the interests of the NATO imperialists. There is no reason that we should believe that Russia will cower before the mighty west and give up because Joe Biden asked him to.
Within the war, Russia has shown itself to basically have the most powerful modern army if you know what to look for. Their military had basically destroyed the Ukrainian military in the opening weeks of the war by destroying the majority of Ukraines military stockpiles and have destroyed every army that Ukraine has reconstituted with western aid. Ukraine has so thoroughly collapsed on the inside that there is no future for the country. Demographically it already lacked young people and a lot of them will not be coming back and the middle aged men are dying at the front. Ukraine cannot pose a threat to Russia anymore even if Russia withdrew to its previous borders and NATO gave all of its military stocks to Ukraine.
Russia has weathered everything the west has thrown at it and come out stronger for it. There is no material reason for them to just give up because they have already won. We're just waiting to see how they win at this point.
PS: They can actually still lose if NATO escalates to nuclear war.