this post was submitted on 22 Apr 2024
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Image is from this Washington Post article, which shows the Shabara artisanal mine, where cobalt and copper are dug out by hand.


This preamble got much of its information from this article in ROAPE, and this article in People's World.

Countries in the imperial core have increasingly advocated for Green New Deals, whose primary goal is to re-attract manufacturing capability to somewhat counter deindustrialization, and then export some of this renewable energy generation to other countries to gain profit. Just as the initial wave of industrialization was built on massive resource exploitation of coal and iron and then oil, this wave is being built on exploiting metals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements. The DRC is one of the best case studies on the planet for understanding the new dynamic.

The DRC is, to your average Western country, a resource bonanza. It is the 11th largest country by land area, and contains lithium, copper, and cobalt in massive quantities, famously containing two thirds of the world's known cobalt supplies. The Western world and their institutions swarmed the DRC like piranhas, dismantling the Congo's sovereignty over its natural resources. China was not terribly involved in the privatisation process, but has stepped in to benefit from the West's work - Chinese corporations account for 40% of the production of major Congo cobalt projects (and 15 out of 19 cobalt mines), with Switzerland at 30% via Glencore, and Kazakhstan at 22%. The US, for whatever reason, withdrew from majority ownership of some projects in the mid-2010s, but is now anxious about China's position in the cobalt markets. Western countries in general have spent their time lately drawing up critical minerals strategies both to keep capitalism chugging along in their own countries, and attempt to weaken China, which invariably involves the Congo.

The Congo has attempted to resist imperialist encroachment. In 2018, the Kaliba administration asserted a new Mining Code which raised tax and royalty rates and increased state ownership in mining firms from 5% to 10%, and these changes were bitterly resisted by the West right to the end. Since 2019, under the Tshisekedi administration, the government established the state-owned EGC, which sought to take control over the processing and export of artisanal and small-scale cobalt production, which comprises 5-15% of cobalt production in the Congo. More recently, Tshisekedi is planning to move up the manufacturing chain - instead of merely mining cobalt, they want to refine it there and then make electric vehicle batteries and other such products with it, which would be an industry worth trillions of dollars. But so far, there hasn't been much movement away from having mining exports as the backbone of the economy, and it's doubtful that plans to just keep doing this until they get rich enough to build refineries and factories will work. The profits mostly go to Western countries and have failed to produce significant benefits for Congolese workers, nor resulted in the emergence of domestic industries so far. Reforms will help a little, but only a little, and they remain fundamentally constrained by the markets and the whims of the West.

Meanwhile, war and mass displacements have put immense stress on the country. There are 7.1 million displaced people in the DRC due to various conflicts and mass displacements - most recently, the war between the Congolese army and M23. Hundreds of thousands of people continue to be displaced every few months, and across the whole country, over 26 million require humanitarian aid. 6 million people have died in the eastern DRC in the last three decades, with hundreds of armed groups, both domestic and foreign, battling for resources and territory.


The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.

The Country of the Week is the Democratic Republic of the Congo! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 81 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (15 children)

The general vibe of news and economics recently has me worried.

I always thought that my life would pass without a revolution in the "international community". Now I'm not so sure. If things keep getting worse for western sphere countries at the same rate, as now, and China rises at the same rate as now, intense violence could kick off within a couple of decades. Openly bloody and fascist reaction in the crumbling of the old order. I didn't expect the mask of "freedom and democracy" to drop as fast as it has, combined with the open acknowledgements that China is surpassing us.

Our century of humiliation will be us humiliating ourselves and I feel like it might be coming fast.

I honestly thought I might get through it all without living through the spicy times.

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[–] [email protected] 81 points 8 months ago (3 children)
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[–] [email protected] 81 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (7 children)

I'm generally skeptical of "student movements," especially of the ivy league variety, and as a footsoldier of the OG occupy movement I am generally skeptical of these as well, but shit is seems to be fucking happening.

If all of this is for fucking nothing, we're making the state waste a LOT of resources.

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[–] [email protected] 81 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Being away from the news mega (and site in general) for like 24 hours makes me realize how much this space means to me…

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[–] [email protected] 81 points 8 months ago

Number of known Gaza deaths exceeded the population of my town. doomer

[–] [email protected] 81 points 8 months ago (16 children)

Do you all condemn Hamas? From the river to the sea is bad optics amirite fellow comrades? Don’t be a fed and say stuff like “resistance is justified” or you might scare away all my friends

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[–] [email protected] 80 points 8 months ago (3 children)

NYU is reportedly sending this to students they called the cops on

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[–] [email protected] 80 points 8 months ago (28 children)

Why go after student protests so hard? There must be a specific reason it's viewed as so threatening.`

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[–] [email protected] 80 points 8 months ago (2 children)

University of Minnesota students tried to set up an encampment last night similar to the one in Columbia. At 7 this morning police came through the camp, arrested 10 of the core organizers, and tore down the tents and signage.

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[–] [email protected] 79 points 8 months ago (8 children)

So apparently back in '91, Saddam decided to dunk on Israel, but only killed 2 people with the actual missiles. But apparently the attacks managed to scare at at most 74 people to death.

Folks I wonder what the accidental death toll from Iran's strikes is currently.

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[–] [email protected] 79 points 8 months ago (19 children)

In Tight Presidential Race, Voters Are Broadly Critical of Both Biden and Trump

About half of voters say that, if given the chance, they would replace both candidates on the ballot

Looking at these charts, it's actually incredibly easy to see how manipulation of information keeps a minority of voices in control of the voter base. Very few of them seem to wholeheartedly believe in the system. But hating the other side still captures those critical of their own party.

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[–] [email protected] 78 points 8 months ago (7 children)

Everyone ready to voat for the harm reduction candidate?

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[–] [email protected] 78 points 8 months ago
[–] [email protected] 78 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (2 children)
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[–] [email protected] 78 points 8 months ago (5 children)

I’m a little confused how you can trespass students who are paying tens of thousands of dollars to attend the school…

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[–] [email protected] 77 points 8 months ago (7 children)

What did the Europeans know 👁️

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[–] [email protected] 76 points 8 months ago (8 children)

Columbia University, extremely concerned about antisemitism, invited Gavin McInnes and Mike Johnson (yes, the pornography statesman) to campus to harass and intimidate protestors.

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[–] [email protected] 76 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (2 children)

The ICC issuing an arrest warrant for Netanyahu and other top Israeli officials is reportedly only a matter of time, which the US is working overtime to prevent

An internal State Department memo reviewed by Reuters on Saturday revealed senior US officials have advised Secretary of State Antony Blinken that they do not find "credible or reliable" Israel's assurances that it is using US-supplied weapons in accordance with international humanitarian law.

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[–] [email protected] 76 points 8 months ago (7 children)

Abdulmalik Alejri, senior member of the Ansarallah Politburo:

"The death of Sheikh Abdul Majid al-Zindani brings to mind the era of global jihad led by Salafi Jihadism and the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1980s against what was then termed the communist threat. The result was that they handed America and the capitalist West a victory without war, as then-US President Reagan borrowed a phrase from his predecessor Nixon. In the context of the Cold War, Afghanistan, that distant corner of Central Asia, transformed into a hub of Islam, and Kabul became a destination for Arab mujahideen, while Palestine, with Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Prophet's Ascension, was within arm's reach, yet failed to attract Arab mujahideen to jihad or to the allure of the virgins. Ironically, when America occupied Afghanistan, Kabul ceased to be a hub of Islam and a destination for jihad.

At that time, Western capitalist intelligence agencies and their Arab allies succeeded in portraying Marx and socialism as a threat to religions, whereas the truth was that they posed a threat to exploitative capitalism, and Marx's battle was fundamentally against capitalist exploitation. Marx's legacy fundamentally did not prioritize religions, and all he wrote about them was few and scattered texts. His most important work, "Capital," in which his genius shines, explained the structure of capitalism, analyzed its internal mechanisms and contradictions, its capacity for expansion, crisis generation, and self-renewal. Even according to his adversaries, Marx's legacy remained the primary reference for analyzing capitalist crises, with his ideas resurfacing with each historical cycle of capitalist crises.

Marx believed that the Enlightenment had overthrown the exploitation of the church and that the real looming danger was capitalist exploitation, even suggesting that religion could play a positive role in mobilizing against capitalist exploitation. I don't understand how some perceive Marxism and communism as a threat to religion while finding no risks in liberal capitalism, even though the Enlightenment movement with its liberal tendencies was the one that battled the church, and the French Revolution raised the slogan "Hang the last king with the intestines of the last priest," while the slogans of the Bolshevik revolution called for overthrowing the bourgeois government. Naturally, this is just a question of amazement, as the issue as a whole is not as simple, and civilization cannot be reduced or approached solely from the angle of combating religion.

The real danger to religion is such exploitation of religion to serve the battles and projects of America and the imperial West in the region, and those involved should take heed from the dramatic end of the Afghan jihad."

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[–] [email protected] 76 points 8 months ago (2 children)
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[–] [email protected] 76 points 8 months ago (2 children)

I hope those student protestors can reach out to the university workers. And I'm not talking about professors and TAs, but the cafeteria workers, janitors, landscapers, electricians, construction workers, and the like. Basically, the people who make the universities be a place that's actually livable.

The university protests need to either become more militant or involve university workers. Regular university operations need to be ground to a halt.

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[–] [email protected] 76 points 8 months ago (5 children)
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[–] [email protected] 75 points 8 months ago (8 children)

I see a lot of people turning against police in anti israhell protests, even conservatives as I said before, police crack down on police is not a win in west. it is their last resort. western regimes much more prefer to ignore the protests. and once again their last resort failed to protect them

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[–] [email protected] 75 points 8 months ago (4 children)

i just favourite every news bulletin, i feel like i might miss one if i dont, they are all so good ty cde for the hard work and ty cdes who comment and put in their own labor for the benefit of the community 🫡

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[–] [email protected] 75 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (4 children)

We were joking about the struggles of listening to American diplomats yesterday, but the last thing Xi said before meeting Blinken yesterday:

When does he plan to leave?

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[–] [email protected] 75 points 8 months ago (3 children)

https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/meta-earnings-facebook-q1-stock-results-expectations?mod=home-page

Meta stock down 16% today. Even with Brandon signing the TikTok ban, their massaged revenue projections can't hide the rot.

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[–] [email protected] 75 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (5 children)

Organized workers and student movements slowly gaining articulation (LONG POST SORRY)

Massive crowds march against Milei’s cuts to state universities

Large crowds turn out across country for march in defence of the universities and state education; One of biggest rallies yet of President Javier Milei's government, with estimates ranging from 100,000 to half a million.

spoiler

Holding books aloft and pledging to defend state education, hundreds of thousands of Argentines took to the streets on Tuesday to voice outrage at cuts to universities and higher education institutions under budget-slashing new President Javier Milei.

Joined by professors, parents and alumni from the nation’s 57 state-run universities, students rose up "in defence of free public university education." Labour unions, opposition parties and private universities backed the protests in Buenos Aires and other major cities including Córdoba, Rosario and Mar del Plata in one of the biggest demonstrations yet against the austerity measures introduced since Milei took office in December.

Police said around 100,000 people turned out Tuesday in the capital alone, while the University of Buenos Aires (UBA) put the number at closer to half-a-million. One teachers' union reported a million protesters countrywide. The Security Ministry, headed by Patricia Bullrich, attempted to play down the turnout. Either way, the city centre of the capital was paralysed for hours on end.

Third-year medicine student Pablo Vicenti, 22, told AFP in Buenos Aires he was outraged at the government's "brutal attack" on the university system. "They want to defund it with a false story that there is no money. There is, but they choose not to spend it on public education," he said. Milei won elections last November vowing to take a “chainsaw” to public spending and reduce the budget deficit to zero.

To that end, his government has slashed subsidies for transport, fuel and energy even as wage-earners have lost a fifth of their purchasing power. Thousands of public servants have lost their jobs, and Milei has faced numerous anti-austerity protests. "We believe in the equalising capacity of free public education, in the transformative power of the university as a formidable tool for upward social mobility," said Piera Fernández, a student and president of the FUA Argentine University Federation.

She read out a prepared statement agreed by university bosses to a huge crowd at the Plaza de Mayo, the epicentre of Tuesday’s rally. "Education saves us and makes us free. We call on Argentine society to defend it," said Fernández. "This is important for those of us who study and for those of us who work, because public education lifts up a country," said Nicolas Villagra, a 24-year-old UBA student.

The government dismissed the protests as "political." The march's organisers asked demonstrators to avoid using symbols that identified them with specific political parties or groups, asking that the march be only in defence of public universities. Many families could be seen at the demonstration, which drew a wide cross section of society and was not split along party lines.

(More on the article itself)


Gigantic protest yesterday across Argentina, especially Buenos Aires, I was there and it was absolute insanity. It was a huge success: pretty much all universities mobilized their students, centres, professors, administrative personnel alongside other professionals and workers. But alongside us were other social movements that also took part in the protest, from orgs representing retirees to worker's unions. The result was a massive sea of people which flooded the streets of the city's centre, a beautiful spectacle of diverse peoples and movements, ranging from communists to all sorts of peronist orgs, but this time the protest included several non-traditional groups (libs) that also attended to defy milei.

I followed my uni's student centre and their banner during the march. The "centre" is a body that represents and manages the student's interests within universities (each one has a different centre), this body is occupied by a political group (not party, but they do represent major parties) which is elected into power each year through obligatory elections. Once in power, these students will take charge of things like the buffet, printers and call out for assemblies while at the same time providing support for students who need financial help and so on. They don't have a lot of power but they can still reach out to students and do good or harm (as it happens in unis where libs and neolibs are in charge of their centres). Our particular centre is led by a coalition of socdem-ish Peronist factions, pretty cool dudes overall (Global South socdems are usually different than your standard euro or yankee socdem, less cringe and less being the moderate wing of fascism) and they did a good job at leading, organizing the march and the people that attended.

I have been to several protests in the past but none were like this one, I could barely follow our banner and I got stuck for almost two hours in the same spot waiting for the crowd to just move forward. I managed to catch up with "my group" later on but once again became stuck about 100m away from the main concentration point, which was Plaza de Mayo, where I saw a HUGE crowd of people. But I loved being there, and despite being crushed against walls, against people, getting pushed to one side and then to the other, I loved all of it. I've never seen anything like this before and I am glad I attended. Cops acted very peacefully as well, they barely formed a wall in front of Casa Rosada but didn't carry out any arrests or violence. The "anti-pitcket protocol" was utterly defeated as the police completely failed to stop the protest, such gigantic crowds cannot be stopped.

Here's a couple of photos and videos from the protest in Buenos Aires:

Aerial video

Videos from the ground, filmed by me:

Coming out of the Metro

The crowd from within, the sounds of the drums and trumpets... I can spend all day listening to them. You can feel your insides vibrate while you're in a protest like that, it's an insane experience.

On the move and crossing the main avenue of the city, in the background the imposing Ministry of Social Development (now defunct) building can be seen, one that the libertarians promised to demolish.

Sorry for the somewhat shaky camera, it's hard to film stuff on your phone while you're walking with so many people. Also let me know if you see ads in the video like, streamable says if I don't upgrade, people will see ads. Fuck them, but I don't know any other good video sharing site rn.

And of course, milei has responded to the protest. First, his government downplayed the size, then said it was "too political" and later on he posted an AI generated image of a lion drinking a cup of "commie tears" on his social media. Good good, keep alienating people, you useless bacteria. Sooner than later we'll be dragging his lifeless body around the city to hang him upside down in some gas station.

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[–] [email protected] 75 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (4 children)

Hasan's Pier Morgan roasts are blowing up on Tik Tok

Dude forgot he wasn't yelling at chat, people live to see dunks like that on cable news lmao

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[–] [email protected] 74 points 8 months ago (11 children)

Waffen-SS redditors are extremely angry that Ukraine is not sending all Ukrainian women age 25+ to die in a losing war so they can masturbate to pics of them holding guns from their basements in the west

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[–] [email protected] 74 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (8 children)

From Suriyakmaps:

The dynamics of the front, as unimaginable as it would have been a short time ago, are accelerating. It is truly amazing how such a stronghold as Ocheretino is being assaulted so easily. Its fall seriously endangers any Ukrainian position south of the Novobakhmutivka-Sokil axis.

Ukraine is going to have to scramble tons of resources to that area in order to prevent total collapse. Far, far away from Kharkiv/Sumy, where the Belgorod "buffer zone operation" is likely to take place.

There are already some claims that Ocheretino has totally fallen, and that Russia is quickly moving south into Novobakhmutivka, with Ukrainian forces continuing to retreat.

[–] [email protected] 75 points 8 months ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 75 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

The Weeks-Decade Convertinator 3000 cannot create decades out of nothing. To speed time up in one place, it requires a sacrifice of slowing down time somewhere else. To create the decades needed for October 7th and then the Iran-Israel back-and-forth, we've had to take them out of the Ukraine War, which is why it slowed down so much after the first few months. The Convertinator is being revved down so now time is gradually reverting to normal speed in the Ukraine War

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[–] [email protected] 74 points 8 months ago (11 children)

Reuters: Poland ready to help Ukraine to get military-age men back, minister says

Poland is ready to help Ukraine in getting military-age male citizens to return and help their home country in fighting in the war against Russia, Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said on Wednesday.

The Ukrainian government announced rules on Wednesday under which passports for military-age men can be issued only inside the country instead of foreign diplomatic missions.

As a result, men aged between 18 and 59 living abroad will be unable to renew expiring passports or obtain new ones.

"I think many Poles are outraged when they see young Ukrainian men in hotels and cafes, and they hear how much effort we have to make to help Ukraine," he said, without giving any details on how Poland will help.

"Any support is possible," Kosiniak-Kamysz said about how Poland would respond if Kyiv asked for help in bringing home those who may lose their right to stay in Poland once their passports expire.

Absolutely demonic. Hopefully they can escape before they get sent back.

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[–] [email protected] 74 points 8 months ago (4 children)

Swiss lawyers grovel at the feet of Palestine Action, pledges to drop Elbit Systems as a client:
https://twitter.com/Pal_action/status/1782813310074695717

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[–] [email protected] 74 points 8 months ago (15 children)

n-tv: Military economist: Putin has already strategically lost the war (Article in German)

An article from July 2022, you think? Nope, 26th April of 2024.

Russia has been leading an offensive war against Ukraine for over two years now. Despite Moscow's current progress at the front, military economist Keupp sees the Kremlin as the imminent losers. In the long term, he thinks, Russia stands no chance against the industrial capabilities of the West.

The article talks about how Ukraine is fighting a war of attrition and how that is actually a very good thing.

"Let's not forget that Ukraine has an active reserve of a million men."

Ah, good to know there's still a lot of fuel left for the meat grinder what-the-hell

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[–] [email protected] 73 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (2 children)

NSFL: 🚨Harrowing evidence revealed of Israel's execution of Gazans at the Nasser hospital mass grave 🧵

spoilerhttps://twitter.com/muhammadshehad2/status/1783772947745804674

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[–] [email protected] 73 points 8 months ago (12 children)

So apparently someone in the US government leaked to the WSJ, just before Blinken's visit to China, that the US is drafting sanctions to cut of Chinese banks from the (Western) global financial system.

The article is here but pay walled.

This has to be some absurd, insulting ruse as a negotiating tactic right? The US can't really think it can simply freeze out the Chinese economy like it tried to do to Russia without it backfiring catastrophically right?

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[–] [email protected] 73 points 8 months ago

In an effort to stymie student protests, NYU is building their own little apartheid wall: https://twitter.com/ArielleLAngel/status/1782766565072486878

[–] [email protected] 72 points 8 months ago (6 children)

⚡️Hebrew Media: Israeli military censorship imposes a complete publication ban on the dangerous event taking place on the Lebanese border after a force was exposed to a fatal ambush.

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[–] [email protected] 72 points 8 months ago (12 children)

Saw this posted on another forum, not seeing it in here yet, the Guardian wrote a puff piece for our least favorite Ukrainian neo-Nazi brigade:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/27/elite-force-bucks-trend-of-ukrainian-losses-on-eastern-front

It's pretty bad, full transcript in spoiler minus photo captions:

spoiler

The Azov brigade, which leaders say has a culture of ‘mutual respect’, is tasked with repelling relentless Russian attacks as the invaders make most of artillery mismatch

by Dan Sabbagh in Lyman. Photographs by Julia Kochetova Sat 27 Apr 2024 00.00 EDT

Fifteen miles east of the garrison town of Lyman, a desperate fight has been taking place on Ukraine’s eastern front for months. The once verdant Serebryansky pine forest has been reduced to burnt-out stumps, reminiscent of images from the Somme, destroyed amid Russian attacks aimed at eliminating Ukrainian foxholes.

Fearful that the frontline could crack last summer, Ukraine’s commanders deployed the Azov infantry brigade to the sector. Their task was and is to repel what “Maslo”, a 29-year-old staff sergeant with the unit’s first battalion, described as “constant assaults, every day, sometimes for 24 hours”. Occasionally the brigade makes dangerous counterattacks on foot.

Poor visibility, perhaps 30 metres where the wood is thicker, and a mismatch of equipment makes the fight harder. Maslo, whose call sign translates as butter, described a “more or less stable” artillery mismatch of five to one in favour of the Russians, though he believes it is closer to 10 to one in the most intense sectors of the front, such as during the winter battle of Avdiivka, which fell to the invaders in February.

Russian drone attacks are also proliferating, the soldier added, reflecting a successful shift by Moscow towards a war economy. But perhaps the most serious problem the defenders face are Russian glide bombs, air-launched from as far as 70km away by Su-34 and Su-35 jets. These are moderately accurate weapons that, if they happen to land on target, can wreak havoc on targets below.

Makas, a staff sergeant in the second battalion, says “as many as 100 to 150 glide bombs can be launched into a sector a day”, a statement that suggests official Ukrainian military claims that 3,500 hit the frontlines in the first 77 days of the year may be an underestimate. The weapons can carry 500kg or 1.5 tonnes of explosives, the latter of which can “blow a crater 30 metres wide and 7 to 10 metres deep”, he says.

The larger bombs are understandably feared by soldiers on the frontline – and intercepting them or the aircraft that launch them is the task of air defence – of which Ukraine is short – or possibly F-16 fighter jets armed with long-range missiles, although few expect the western jets to be ready, with trained pilots, much before the end of the year, and their final numbers are uncertain.

Ukraine moved up one of its few Patriot air defence systems to the front in February, knocking out 10 Su-34s and two Su-35s, according to its air force – but in early March a forward-deployed system was damaged by a Russian missile, underlying the risky nature of the air-to-ground battle, although it was said by the Pentagon to have been repaired about a week later.

Such imbalances in weaponry, caused by the long hiatus in US military aid that only ended this week and the slow development of European arms production, have begun to affect Ukrainian morale. Senior figures acknowledge privately that mobilising more men to fight is becoming challenging, with some fleeing the country or considering it – while others focus on finding units where commanders will not expose them to unnecessary risks.

It is estimated that Russia had 400,000 soldiers fighting in Ukraine until recently, a figure that is rising to 500,000 – creating an immediate need for more defenders, as well as replacing casualties (the official average of Ukrainian soldiers killed a month is about 1,300 and the number of wounded at least three times that). There is a widespread expectation that Moscow will try to launch a more intense offensive shortly, although there are signs the step-up has already begun. A fortnight ago, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, said “the situation on the eastern front has significantly worsened”, and that a period of dry warmer weather was facilitating new Russian attacks by tanks and armoured vehicles. Ukrainian military intelligence has estimated that 20,000 to 25,000 Russians are massing west of Bakhmut near Chasiv Yar, hoping to seize high ground in the central Donbas – but more significantly there are signs of a 5km Russian bridgehead forming north-west of Avdiivka.

The range of Ukraine’s immediate needs is recognised in the breadth of the equipment supplied in Wednesday’s $1bn package from the US, which include artillery rounds, Stinger handheld anti-air missiles, Javelin anti-tank weapons, and Bradley armoured vehicles. A further £500m package announced by the UK also includes 400 armoured vehicles: a particular problem, Ukrainian medics say, is having enough protected transport to get the wounded away from the battlefield.

In the immediate term, experts believe that it will take further rounds of military aid to reverse Ukraine’s deteriorating fortunes, including at least seven more Patriot anti-missile batteries to protect its cities and suppress bombardment at the front. “So far, this is not a counteroffensive package for Ukraine, and there is no real prospect of a counteroffensive this year. The next year will be tough and it may well be that Ukraine will have to cede more territory before it stabilises,” says Matthew Savill, an analyst with London’s Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) thinktank.

What is hard to evaluate is the damage caused by US Republicans’ withholding of funding for Ukraine, and Europe’s pace of building up industrial support. Although soldiers on the frontline such as Makas report that “10 or 15 Russians are killed for every Ukrainian”, the team at Rusi believe, grimly, that Russia can sustain a casualty rate of about 20,000 to 30,000 month (roughly the current levels) for about another year, allowing Moscow’s forces to attack all along the frontline.

Ukraine, a much smaller country, has to find a way of mobilising more younger people. “The average age of the Ukrainian army is 43,” Savill says, “and that means Ukraine is going to have to mobilise more young people, who they have so far been trying to protect.” By the time western military industrial production peaks towards the end of the year, as predicted by Kyiv, more Ukrainian lives will have been lost – and Savill argues, the rest of 2024 may be about the defenders trying to wear the Russian aggressors out sometime after 2025.

In the woods around Lyman there is a different perspective, however. While a handful of brigades have struggled in the latest phase of fighting, Azov says it has defeated the Russian attackers in the Serebryansky forest. The 5,000-plus strong brigade has shed any far-right associations, relentlessly emphasised in Russian pre-invasion propaganda, and is one of the military’s elite forces, comprised entirely of volunteers. Members say there is a waiting list for recruits, allowing it to pick and choose.

“Tavr” Bohdan Krotevych, Azov’s chief of staff, 31, argues that high morale, unit cohesion and a willingness to allow all ranks to be heard, not necessarily shown elsewhere, was a key to success – contrasting the style with the traditional “old fart” hierarchical model of Soviet command. A culture of “mutual respect” is intended to ensure soldiers’ lives are not wasted and the commander emphasises the young age profile of the brigade, with an average age “on the south side of 35”, adding if you are young “you have attitude, you are competitive, you have stuff to prove”.

High morale and fresh thinking in Ukraine’s better units will not be sufficient to win a war of national survival, and the stop-start nature of western support in practice (despite upbeat statements made by political leaders) frustrates many Ukrainian soldiers. Tavr complains that the west has so far only supplied weapons to produce “a stalemate that is perhaps comfortable for the west, even though civilians keep dying”, noting that at least eight were killed in bombing in and around Dnipro city last week.

So the part that feels most egregious is this

The 5,000-plus strong brigade has shed any far-right associations, relentlessly emphasised in Russian pre-invasion propaganda

Oh, the far-right associations are no longer there, and were mostly just Russian propaganda anyways huh?

So weird how two photos up from this line the Azovites are writing on a sign and have put the Nazi dog whistle numbers all over it.

Disgusting Nazi rag, all Western media is just state propaganda at this point.

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[–] [email protected] 71 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (1 children)

In the repressive dictatorship of Supreme Leader and Premier Joseph Biden, president of the United Soviet People's States of North Belarus, the government deploy militarized police and snipers to intimidate and attack peaceful university protesters calling for the end of an ongoing genocide.

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[–] [email protected] 71 points 8 months ago (11 children)

Looks like Turtletank got some upgrades and a rear window. It's like a tactical dacha.

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[–] [email protected] 71 points 8 months ago (4 children)

Medics across the U.S. have been quietly injecting sedatives to subdue people detained by police:
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1783937850880245998

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[–] [email protected] 71 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (6 children)
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[–] [email protected] 70 points 8 months ago (22 children)
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