Uh, there are several recent polls that have Biden ahead, while Democrats have been over-performing polls by about 9 points in recent elections.
It's become so noticable that US News did an article about it.
this post was submitted on 14 Jun 2024
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Don’t believe anything polls say. They don’t really qualify those polled very well, and they’re piss poor at capturing the actual true demographics of the voting community.
It’s best to always assume your vote is direly needed.
538 has been reliable in the past elections. They show an almost-tied race with Trump slightly ahead: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
Nate Silver is no longer at 538.
There are different people running the models these days.
Wasn't 538 wrong about Trump winning in 2016 though?
No. 538 gave Trump the best chances out of any model, which Nate was criticized heavily for. 1-in-3 chances, which is what Trump had in 2016, are still pretty likely.
Everyone was wrong in 2016.
538 was the least wrong of any model anywhere.
And Nate Silver was ridiculed at the time for giving Trump such a high chance of winning, before the election.
538 gave Trump and Clinton similar chances. They essentially called the race too close to call.
Vox kinda sucks, to be fair.
Could you expand on that?
God damnit america, it doesn't matter. Go out and vote.
Biden needs to do more for the lower/middle class and put bibi in his places then tell him no more trade.
While it would be great if the US weren't unilaterally supporting the actions of the Israeli government, unfortunately a major shift from that foreign policy position would likely only receive substantial support from the people already likely to vote Democrat, or anti-Trump at the very least. It would likely be spun by media outlets that are either generally conservative or simply biased in favor of the Israel government in such a way that would push moderates towards Trump. As Trump would only increase the country's support of the Israeli military, it's more important to avoid him being elected to avoid a worse situation in the long run.
It's 5 months to the election. How long has Gaza got? It already seems too late.
The problem is that anything less than unwavering support for Israel would be spun by well-funded propagandists as left-wing at best and antisemitic at worst. Regardless of how unjustified those claims are, and how detrimental they are to the wellbeing of oppressed Palestinians, a switch in foreign policy tactics now just for Netanyahu to wait for Trump to be elected is not worth it, as any short term benefits for the Palestinians would be undone tenfold should Trump be elected. Beyond that, a similar or worse fate would await Ukraine should that occur, so it's ultimately better to wait until the election is over to consider major policy changes.
I understand that, also I think most of it was in your previous comment. What you didn't do is answer the question: how long has Gaza got?
People already materially demonstrated that you're incorrect though during the primaries in multiple states, that's what the Uncommitted vote was, a message saying "I will only vote for you if you resist this genocide." And they did this in numbers that are comparable to his win margins from 2020.
Now, it could be argued that Biden has wasted too much time and let too many people die since then, but there is no sign that not supporting the genocide would hurt him.
He's not making up the ground with his push for fascist immigration policy either, he's literally just alienating more voters the further he goes to the right because republicans are not ever going to vote for him, and anyone in the progressive center isn't going to go for illegal asylum denial policies.
You’re the one materially incorrect if you’re saying a handful of primary voters holds a fucking candle to AIPAC money and the Israeli lobbying apparatus.
You can weirdly argue Biden “let” people die all you want, but at the end of the day that’s not the opinion a majority of voters hold. It’s also not the top priority in their life right now, regardless of their opinion of Gaza. Any lost margin you think was represented in those primaries is ignorantly cute compared to the Israeli lobby on both sides, the Jewish vote and other folks with designs on the region.
Bottom line there’s almost a century of US foreign policy involved, combined with decades of republicans fucking up the region, combined with liberal politics, combined with a fucked up election.
The way things are, a handful of primary voters are a fart in the wind right now. They would do better to elect progressives to local elections and the House of Representatives than to sink a democratic president. One who has already worked with and championed progressives but also… you know has to lead a country of 100s of millions of people with different opinions.
You can weirdly argue Biden “let” people die all you want,
Sorry, U should correct that; he directly provides the funding and weapons to massacre children.
Ask Summer Lee and her constituents what she thinks if AIPAC wasting millions to try and unseat her, lol.
The era of AIPAC is coming to the end, people are becoming aware that they play both sides and they're soon going the wat if the NRA.
There's a lot wrong about this article, there's so much to unpack:
"Thus, the idea that Biden is personally responsible for the surge of inflation in 2022 — and that he cannot be trusted to effectively manage the economy for that reason — appears deeply rooted in voters’ minds."
That's not why Biden isn't trusted on inflation, the reason he's not trusted is because when people tell him the economy is bad and they're hurting, he ignores their personal experience and rolls back on "What are you talking about, Jack? Economy's great!"
https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/biden-economy-inflation-elections-prices-20240429.html
"The fact that wages have been rising much faster than prices for more than a year has left no dent on this impression."
Because the only way to reap the benefits of rising wages is to change jobs. People remaining in the same job have seen stagnant wage growth.
https://www.resumebuilder.com/half-of-companies-may-not-give-cost-of-living-raises-in-2024/
So inflation is going up, wages are stagnant, that means you're effectively getting a pay cut and the President goes "What's wrong, man? Look at the GDP!"
The same goes for a decline in rental prices. You don't see the decrease if you're in a lease. If you move you might get a break.
"Another few months of falling inflation could move the needle a bit, but there’s little reason to assume that such a development will dramatically change public opinion."
Inflation is not falling, it's increasing slower than it was. Last month it went up 3.3%, the month before, 3.5%. The fact that it went up .2% slower than before doesn't mean it's going down.
in the store today for a five pack of denver steaks which were about $10 beginning of last week
today when purchased the same pack it was about $20
same with every other grocery item in the store prices just keep going up and never down
Blame Reagan. Turns out that getting rid of that pesky government oversight did allow corporations to thrive... At the cost of consumers. It's been a long slide, but the pandemic showed companies just how much they can get away with.
There's like 3 major airlines, 3 cell providers, and 10 companies that make most of your groceries. Profits are up, and so are prices. Competition is all but dead. To quote Highlander, "There can be only one."
I'm not going to be polite about liars like you. Every time inflation is mentioned someone comes out of the woodwork and claims preposterous inflation. I buy steaks both from the local grocery and the local butcher. Prices did not double last week for me or anyone else in the US.
Red meat is likely to cause cancer it is also destroying the environment, requires massive subsidies, land and water to stay relatively low cost and the workers in meat processing plants are suffering relentlessly.
I would instead suggest beans, lentils, tofu , tempeh or seitan.
I say this with love: you will never persuade anyone by bringing it up this unprompted. I don't eat meat myself and I can see that. I'm not sure what a good approach is, but this one puts people on the defensive and makes them entrench themselves out of spite.
That said, if anyone wants a good lentil recipe, check out misir wot. It's goddamn delicious, as confirmed by my very traditional meat-loving dad, and not difficult to make either
Lentils and chickpeas, my beloved.
I don’t think you’ll ever convince someone like that to stop being like that.