...THATS WHAT THE POLLS SAY!!!
this post was submitted on 12 Jul 2024
100 points (85.7% liked)
politics
18645 readers
3639 users here now
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
The gambling odds have started to show a significantly better chance for Kamala winning than Biden now, it's an interesting shift.
And, those odds aren't odds that only take affect if she is made the nominee, there's no prerequisites there, it's generic odds of just Kamala running and winning the election period.
Yeah. People are cleaning up on polymarket.
Hey, the nature of probabilities with uncertainty is that they'll never reach zero, he'll just have a 0.005% chance of win, which is technically not "no way". Checkmate bedwetters.
Source?
He doesn't remember.
If he loses either Pennsylvania or Michigan, he can't win.
He doesn't have to lose both of them, just losing one or the other puts him underwater.
So how is that going?
PA - Trump +3 to +7.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
MI - Biden +5 to +6.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Erf, and fivethirtyeight is one of the poll sites that tends to be pretty accurate =/
I heard they actually lost their statistician who originally set the whole thing up. I'm expecting a decline in quality. Wikipedia says the original guy, Nate Silver left and created his own website last year. Natesilver.net
And he’s been saying for weeks that Biden is unlikely to win and should drop out
“But I get overwhelming support. Overwhelming support. I won ... I forget how many votes I won in the primary, overwhelming.”
I mean as only one running in it one would hope so
After reading all the comments on here and all of our social media, we don't need an official poll. Even the staunchest of Democrats are now saying the same thing that many of us have been saying for over 4 years.
Unless Obama personally drags him behind the woodshed I don't see him dropping out. His hubris is too strong, and his identity is too connected to his political career. This was never about the country. It was always exclusively about Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden's egos.
No one - I mean absolutely no one - runs for President without a high level of ego and narcissism. Who the fuck thinks they are best suited to "lead the free world"? No one with an ounce of humility.
Bernie. Sanders.
I like Bernie. And maybe he's an exception. But the cynic in me doubts he is entirely immune.
But for sure, good call.
I'm sure he is not entirely immune. Nobody is, but I also firmly believe in Bernie's ability to put the good of others before himself when it truly matters most. I cannot say the same about Trump, Hillary, or Biden.
Bernie is 1 year older than Biden and has a bad heart. He's not fit for the office.
Bernie is still sharp as a tack. Also, we weren't talking about fitness. We were talking about character and ethics.
Even with a bad heart he can run circles around the decrepit POS in there now
Maybe, if you think about it, your country is pretty much built on ego?
I don't need to think about it. I already know that is the case.
Yeah, I'm so sick and tired of people delicately tiptoeing around these people because "whatabout their LEGACY". I can assure there are very few Americans that GAF about Biden's so-called legacy, but we keep having to play this stupid game.
Again, I'll be voting for him if he's in the general. But I want the Democrats to win and I'm not too sure we aren't royally fucked if it's him on the ticket.
I just did a poll on everyone who watched that press conference and it says, "there's no way you can win."
Ok...who's next?
With every news personality declaring it, regardless, the polls will eventually say that anyway
The left deciding to eat itself just before such a vital election isn't surprising but it is weird
The liberals not the left. The left was warning you about slow walking Biden to the next election since he got elected. The liberals didn't listen. Now we're here because it wasn't convient to listen to the left four years ago.
Quit scapegoating and spreading misinformation. "The left" had fuck-all to do with this debacle.
The left has been shitting over its best interests this whole election cycle so I guess you could argue they'd already fucked.up as much as they had the power to so are now unable to do anything but petulantly whine
For good of the world. Drop out, Biden.
Now do the racist rapist with 34 felonies. (newsflash, if it wasn't for that clown, Biden would be a non issue.)
And he already told us he doesn't believe the polls, so we're fucked.
Or, he's lying. Just because he wants to build suspense.
wellll wellll welll
It's too late to swap horses in this race. The time was two years ago, and the best hope now is that the "anyone but Trump" vote prevails.
The “anyone but trump vote” is me. All these headlines are noise.
See yall in November.
The Dem candidate isn't going to add any Trump votes.
It's only going to establish how many Dems are enthusiastic enough to get off their butts.
And the left understands what a threat the racist rapist with 34 felonies is to democracy. They'll vote, and when they vote, the right has zero chance.
The time was 4 years ago when leftists were calling his mental condition out. It was apparent then, even Obama lightly alluded to it several times.