this post was submitted on 04 Sep 2023
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Image is of container ships waiting outside the canal. While there is usually some number of ships waiting for passage, the number has increased significantly lately.


In order to move ships through the Panama Canal, water is needed to fill the locks. The water comes from freshwater lakes, which are replenished by rainfall. This rainfall hasn't been coming, and Lake Gatun, the largest one, is at near record low levels.

Hundreds of ships are now in a maritime traffic jam, unable to cross the canal quickly. Panama is attempting to conserve water and have reduced the number of transits by 20% per day, among other measures. The Canal's adminstrators have warned that these drought conditions will remain for at least 10 months.

It is unlikely that global supply chains will be catastrophically affected, at least this year. Costs may increase for consumers in the coming months, especially for Christmas, but by and large goods will continue to flow, around South America if need be. Nonetheless, projecting trends over the coming years and decades, you can imagine how this is yet another nudge by climate change towards dramatic economic, environmental, and political impacts on the world at large. It also might prompt discussions inside various governments about nearshoring, and the general vulnerability of global supply chains - especially as the United States tries, bafflingly, to go to war with China.


After some discussion in the last megathread about building knowledge of geopolitics, some of us thought it might be an interesting idea to have a Country of the Week - essentially, I/we choose a country and then people can come in here and chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants, related to that country. More detail in this comment.

Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.

Okay, look, I got a little carried away. Monday's update usually covers the preceding Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, but I went ahead and did all of last week. If people like a more weekly structure then I might try that instead, if not, then I'll go back to the Mon-Wed-Fri schedule.

Links and Stuff


The bulletins site is down.

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists

Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can.


Resources For Understanding The War


Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.

Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.


Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.

https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

Almost every Western media outlet.

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


Last week's discussion post.


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[–] [email protected] 32 points 1 year ago (5 children)

the nikkei article is a few days old but so fucking funny

Thus Xi's rough summer began. After receiving the unexpectedly harsh criticism from the elders, Xi huddled with close aides he has promoted to key posts. According to information that has begun to trickle out, Xi vented his frustration, pointing fingers at his three predecessors -- Deng Xiaoping, Jiang and Hu.

"All the issues that were left by the previous three leaders are on my shoulders" he is believed to have said. "I've spent the last decade tackling them but they remain unresolved. Am I to blame?"

Another major factor behind Xi's G20 absence is that no breakthrough in stalled relations with the U.S. appears on the horizon. While there is hope in Washington that the visit to China by U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo late last month served as one step toward a more stable relationship, this is not how the Chinese side sees it.

The butterfly effect of Chinese politics never ceases to amaze. On Thursday, days after the Beidaihe meeting is thought to have closed, former Premier Li Keqiang made his first public appearance since being forced to retire in March.

The former No. 2 was smiling broadly when he appeared at the World Heritage Mogao Caves, also known as the Caves of the Thousand Buddhas, along the ancient Silk Road in Gansu province.

He was greeted by fans who chanted "Ni hao [hello], premier! Ni hao!"

tldr; xi gets bullied by 'party elders' and skips g20 to come to terms with his hurt feelings, huawei sales rep gina raimondo does nothing, non sequitur about li keqiang being greeted by chinese people in china using the chinese language because vibes based reporting with a side of orientalism from a japanese rag no less

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[–] [email protected] 32 points 1 year ago

Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum to Be MORENA Presidential Candidate

She has a PhD in physics and studied at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.

After winning a selection process conducted through polls on Wednesday, Claudia Sheinbaum, the former governor of Mexico City, will be the presidential candidate for the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) party for the 2024 elections.

Alfonso Durazo, the president of the MORENA's National Council, read the results of the five polls that defined the presidential candidacy for this leftist political group.

"The comprehensive analysis of these data allows us to unquestionably conclude that Claudia Sheinbaum obtained the best position to be considered as coordinator of the defense committees of the Fourth Transformation", he said.

Once the results were announced, Sheinbaum declared that she will hold a meeting with the MORENA leadership on Thursday because "the electoral process begins and there is not a minute to lose."

Given that there are no primary elections in Mexico, the selection of Sheinbaum constitutes an unprecedented democratic process, which was carried out by MORENA and its political allies, the Labor Party and the Green Ecologist Party.

Born in 1962, Sheinbaum is a fervent defender of Mexico's “Fourth Transformation”, the political project promoted by the President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO).

“Mexico is ready for a female president or astronaut. We Mexican women have been ready for a long time,” said Sheinbaum, who has a PhD in physics and studied at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM).

Her political career began in the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), which sponsored AMLO's presidential candidacy twice. In 2000, Sheinbaum was part of Lopez Obrador's cabinet when he was governor of the Federal District.

[–] [email protected] 31 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

To Train Ukrainian Troops, the Danish Military Had To Borrow Leopard 1 Tanks From Three Museums Is this one of those times where someone is too stupid to notice this just makes them look bad or something or maybe they're completely embracing the shitty clickbait farm, write whatever nonsense, as long as it gets enough outrage then job well done.

These craggy Danish veterans formed the training cadre and, reinforced by some retired Danish tankers who volunteered to return to government service, set up shop at the Klietz training ground west of Berlin. They were joined by German instructors who had experience on German army engineering vehicles, which share the Leopard 1’s chassis.

The Ukrainian trainees began arriving in May. According to a Danish military release, the Danes assumed responsibility for the first phase of their training—the basic stuff. The Germans took over for the second phase. Translators and contractors from German industry assist both phases.

Having hired instructors, the consortium also needed vehicles for the trainees to practice on. While the Germans have made use of their turretless training vehicles—which previously trained drivers of engineering vehicles—the final stages of instruction, including gunnery, require combat-capable tanks.

Again, the Leopard 1A5’s age posed a problem. Most of the tanks actually belonged to German firm Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft—and had been sitting in a warehouse for two decades. They needed refurbishment.

So the consortium asked for help ... from Danish museums. Apparently the handful of Leopard 1A5s on display in museums were in better condition than were the nearly 100 in storage. Three museums lent the consortium six working tanks “so that the training of the Ukrainians could begin immediately,” the Danish military stated.

Four months later, workers at German tank-maker Rheinmetall are turning over refurbished—practically new-looking—Leopard 1A5s at an accelerating rate. -Ten are in Ukraine, while others have joined the museum tanks in Klietz in order to bolster the training effort.

Yes "accelerating rate" lol. hasan-ok-dude They really, really look down on their readers don't they? Wow amazing out of 100 tanks in storage they managed to get 10 after almost 6 months.

"How do we make a terribly embarrassing story something actualy heartwarming about something something democracy and freedom?"

"Ah yes lets... checks notes repeatedly make the point that the shit consortium promised almost 200 tanks but most of them are in fact in such bad condition they're literally worse than actual existing museum pieces."

[–] [email protected] 31 points 1 year ago (4 children)

https://ghostarchive.org/archive/alI29

More cope about western vehicles getting owned by mines in a buisness insider article by some dipshit called Ryan Pickelhead

Some of Ukraine's Western-made vehicles are getting 'killed' on the battlefield, but it's not as much of a win for Russia's forces as it was. By Ryan Pickrell

It's the usual spiel about superior western technology, interior slavic brainpan regarding human life with as much value as blades of grass because Russians grow like weeds, cope over the fact western vehicles keep getting knocked out of service doesn't actually mean they're destroyed wojak-nooo

Honestly reminds me of the Nazi Kraut cope where their superior nazi tanks kept getting knocked out - or broke down because they can't build tanks for shit - and had to get hauled back to repair facilities with it getting to a point there were more shit needed to be repaired than they could actually field towards the end of the war. like @[email protected] has mentioned priorly, your fancy lad tanks ain't shit if it costs too much to field.

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[–] [email protected] 31 points 1 year ago (9 children)

So archive is still fucking up for me on both the .is link and the .ph link so I'll still be posting raw links.

From: https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/09/05/russian-unimpressed-us-bradleys/?expand_article=1

"Russian Engineers Unimpressed by Captured US-Made Bradleys" by Joe Saballa

Russian engineers decoding captured Bradley infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) in Ukraine were unimpressed by the features and capabilities of the US-made armored vehicles.

Roman Khromov, Russia’s deputy executive director for state defense procurement and military-technical cooperation, told state-run RIA Novosti that the country carried out a “full-scale study” of the samples captured in the Northern Military District.

The examination reportedly found that the American Bradley is not an analog of Moscow’s BMP-3.

For the record I've also heard U.S soldiers and officials shit-talk BMPs and said anything Russia made is not an analog of the Bradley because the Bradley won in every conflict its been in (they were talking about Iraq and Israel lmao)

According to Khromov, the US-made vehicles are “significantly inferior” to the Russian IFVs in firepower, mobility, maintenance, and ease of use.

The Russian engineers claimed that the BMP-3 can overcome water obstacles while moving – a capability that the BAE Systems vehicles “cannot do” without prior preparation.

They also said electronic components are a weak point of the American IFVs, and a failure can cause the armored vehicles to completely lose their ability to fire.

Detailed Comparison

BAE Systems’ Bradley IFV is a lightly armored, fully tracked military vehicle that provides soldiers with added mobility, firepower, and protection from artillery and small-arms fire.

It features the latest digitized electronics for improved situational awareness, network connectivity, and communication within the US Army’s Armored Brigade Combat Team.

Also known as a Kampfgruppe

Russia’s BMP-3, meanwhile, is described as an amphibious vehicle that can engage armored ground and air targets while stationary, on the move, or afloat.

Insert Pentagon Wars movie quote here

It is equipped with an automated fire control system and a 100-millimeter gun.

According to Russian military expert Alexey Leonkov, the weapon mounted on the Bradley is less powerful than the gun installed on the Russian vehicles.

He further stated that their anti-tank capabilities are completely different, suggesting the Russian vehicle is better than the US-made vehicles, which only have two TOW-2 anti-tank missile systems.

Insert another Pentagon Wars movie quote here

Also twitter image from the article here showing an image of a bunch of Russians posing in front of a captured in pristine condition Bradley thanking Zelenskyy for his gifts.

https://twitter.com/JohnEdgarCarter/status/1679040072006483970?s=20

Captured Bradleys

In June, Russia announced that it had captured several Western-supplied Leopard tanks and Bradley IFVs in Ukraine.

Dutch open-source analysis website Oryx, which monitors losses in the ongoing Ukraine war, said at least 52 M2A2 Bradleys have been destroyed or captured since the highly-scrutinized counter-offensive began.

Some military observers even described Ukraine as a graveyard for the American fighting vehicles.

The article finishes out with a YTvideo showing off the Bradley in a positive light so you can at least get a general idea of how they look, sound, and act in the field. Also I'm not responsible for any psychological damage you get from reading YouTube comments

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[–] [email protected] 31 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (8 children)
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[–] [email protected] 31 points 1 year ago

[Caucasus] Israel is blaming Armenia, Iran and Russia for the current escalation in the conflict between it and Azerbaijan agony-shivering

[–] [email protected] 30 points 1 year ago (4 children)

I could swear somebody posted a list of Ukrainian forced "conscriptions" in the past few days, but I can't find it anywhere. Does someone have a link?

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