this post was submitted on 28 Oct 2024
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Image is from this SCMP article.

Much of the analysis below is sourced from Michael Roberts' great website.


Japan's ruling parliamentary coalition, consisting of the LDP (purple) and it's junior coalition partner Komeito (in light pink) have lost their ruling majority. They have ruled post-war Japan for almost its entire history. The LDP is currently led by Shigeru Ishiba after Kishida stood down due to a corruption scandal, and ties to the Unification Church.

While geopolitical factors (over the cold war between the US and China, etc) may have played a role, by far the biggest reason for this result in the poor economic conditions over the past few years. Inflation has risen and real wages have fallen, with little relief for the working class via things like tax reductions. While inequality in Japan is not as extreme as in America, it is still profound, with the top 10% possessing 60% of the wealth, while the bottom 50% possess just 5%.

Shinzo Abe previously tried to boost economic performance through monetary easing and fiscal deficits, while Kishida ran on a "new capitalism" which rejected Abe's neoliberalism and promised to reduce inequality. Nothing substantial has resulted from all this, however, other than increasing corporate wealth. Innovation continues to fall, and domestic profitability is low, resulting in decreasing investment at home by Japanese corporations. Labour productivity growth has only slightly picked up since the mid-2000s and is falling again. The rate of profit has fallen by half since the 1960s, and Japan has been in a manufacturing recession - or very close to it - since late 2022. In essence: there is no choice but between stagnation or decline.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 54 points 15 hours ago* (last edited 15 hours ago) (3 children)

While I'm a bit late to comment on this, I am only commenting on things I can actually read first hand given what happened last week. There has been another document leak, this time an apparent draft about a ceasefire deal in South Lebanon. I'll post it below. My opinion: this is a placeholder document that represents what Israel/US and Lebanese government want, it does not reflect the current state of any negotiations/potential negotiations, I repeat: it is merely a placeholder from the 26th of October stating the intentions of the US/Israel and the Lebanese government. Don't believe any claims that state that Hezbollah has agreed to this, that's not what this document is.

[–] [email protected] 33 points 15 hours ago (1 children)

seems like get civil war recipe

[–] [email protected] 32 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 14 hours ago) (1 children)

If Hezbollah rejects a similar agreement to this, and the US and Lebanon decide to enforce it anyway, then yes. But that is very unlikely to happen. The only way the Lebanese government would enforce such an agreement is if Hezbollah withdraws from the area. The Lebanese Army is not going to go into the South to fight Hezbollah. Which is why I state that this leak is just a statement of what the US, Israel and the Lebanese government want, and does not reflect the reality of any potential negotiations.

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[–] [email protected] 29 points 15 hours ago (1 children)

So the plan is basically "how about you do this instead of us"?

[–] [email protected] 34 points 15 hours ago* (last edited 15 hours ago) (2 children)

The plan is: Hezbollah agrees to this and withdraws in exchange for a ceasefire, the Lebanese army enters and carries out the UN resolution from the 2006 conflict. There's not supposed to be any actual fighting between sides, as far as I understand it. Also Israel has 7 days to carry out their own DMZ operations before that happens.

It's a wishlist of what the US wants, basically.

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[–] [email protected] 65 points 16 hours ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 21 points 13 hours ago

Forget Israel, this is how WW3 is actually gonna start, somehow, because we live in the stupidest timeline.

[–] [email protected] 70 points 17 hours ago
[–] [email protected] 67 points 17 hours ago (7 children)

Ritchie Torres is focusing on important issues that matter.

[–] [email protected] 43 points 16 hours ago

Did Ritchie Torres just describe a bloodthirsty pig as a jewish man? Antisemitism smdh

[–] [email protected] 37 points 15 hours ago

I read it and is this pretty much the letter that D and his followers spammed congress with? It has pretty much verbatim what they have been spewing. I wouldnt be surprised if one of the google drive links is titled 'Hamasabi'. It even still mentions sneako and myron who are banned now (again). Insane cringe that a sitting congressperson is sending letters to whine about a streamer

[–] [email protected] 33 points 15 hours ago

But muh freeze peach! Unfortunately, the ACLU will only defend actual Nazis

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[–] [email protected] 85 points 18 hours ago (4 children)

JUST IN: milei fired his Foreign Minister because she voted in favour of lifting the blockade on Cuba at the recent UN assembly.

[–] [email protected] 34 points 15 hours ago

He's such a sniveling nerd for AnCapism, yet embargoes trade to help his bazinga pals... what a loser.

[–] [email protected] 43 points 16 hours ago

"An-cap is when you do trade embargos for ideological reasons." ancaptain

[–] [email protected] 42 points 17 hours ago

Lmao tito-laugh

Diana Mondino after the country voted in favor of lifting the embargo against Cuba at the United Nations, the president's spokesperson said on Wednesday. Gerardo Werthein, who has been serving as Argentina's ambassador to the United States, will replace Mondino as the country's foreign minister, spokesperson Manuel Adorni said.

[–] [email protected] 35 points 17 hours ago
[–] [email protected] 47 points 17 hours ago

Protesters in Peru block the Panamericana Norte highway in protest of increased insecurity - Telesur English

Article

The National Police of the Andean country confirmed on Monday that a group of demonstrators in Peru keeps blocked the Panamericana Norte highway, in the province of Virú, in protest at the increase of public insecurity.

About 515 kilometers from the Peruvian capital, the villagers of Virú keep blocked with different objects and burning tires the main highway in the area, since last Sunday night.

Protesters are protesting against the authorities for considering that the declaration of a state of emergency to combat crime and organized crime in that region has failed.

«No to extortion. No more bombs», were the slogans of some of the villagers, who also marched to reject attacks by extortion gangs. In this regard, the Peruvian News Agency reported that a police officer and a civilian were seriously injured during the organizational actions to unblock the road, located in the region of La Libertad.

In a dialogue with Canal N, General José Zavala, head of the police region La Libertad, reported that 300 agents of the National Police of Peru (PNP) have been deployed to try to restore order and open the way, allowing free passage for citizens.

The event follows a national strike by truckers last Wednesday, to which other sectors such as the merchant sector joined, shaking Lima for the third time in less than 30 days to protest the increase in crime.

The carriers also requested the elimination of extortion, the resignation of President Dina Boluarte, and the filing of legislative projects that would make the crime of urban terrorism a criminal offence.

[–] [email protected] 80 points 18 hours ago (1 children)

Kata'ib Hezbollah [Islamic Resistance in Iraq] military official Abu Ali al-Askari on Kamala vs. Trump:

"For us, there is no difference in the American elections between Trump or Kamala Harris coming to power in the administration of American evil. Harris and her so-called Democratic Party behind her may be worse than Trump and his party. We have had successful experiences with him, having subdued him in more than one confrontation. He lacks patience and cannot endure prolonged material depletion, which saved us much effort and time in revealing the true face of America as evil, exposing its weaknesses live on air."

Source

[–] [email protected] 60 points 18 hours ago* (last edited 18 hours ago) (3 children)

you heard it here folks, Trump is the harm reduction candidate

[–] [email protected] 17 points 15 hours ago

due to incompetence, maybe

but america is just so generally harmful in general 'harm reduction' is a meaningless thing.

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[–] [email protected] 74 points 18 hours ago (1 children)

Consider this:

  1. Since October 2023, Hezbollah has been clear that the Lebanon front will only cease when the siege of Gaza ends.

  2. The Palestinian Resistance in Gaza has affirmed an unshakeable position since at least December 2023 that the only acceptable ceasefire will require the withdrawal of ALL occupation forces from Gaza.

  3. The Zionist occupiers have set up semi-permanent outposts at both the "Netzarim corridor" and "Pheladelphi corridor" in Gaza and have explicitly stated they intend to completely ethnically cleanse North Gaza and occupy it and they are currently in the process of attempting this.

Now let's ask:

  1. How then are people under this delusion that some sort of "ceasefire" is in the near fiture regarding the US-NATO-israeli war on Lebanon?

  2. Who benefits from propagating this delusion?

[–] [email protected] 48 points 18 hours ago (1 children)

How then are people under this delusion that some sort of "ceasefire" is in the near fiture regarding the US-NATO-israeli war on Lebanon?

Because they listen to too much Israeli and western propaganda, and believe that the resistance is basically in shambles and needs to tap out. They don't follow resistance news or know anything about the on-the-ground situation in actuality. The users in this thread should know better, but some still cannot fully detatch from Western news media having authority to them and they still keep falling for it, they probably think we're all just kinda crazy zealots or something and that our analysis isn't as good as people like Hersh's.

Who benefits from propagating this delusion?

Zionists, since they're the one spreading the rumors.

[–] [email protected] 33 points 17 hours ago

Spot on comrade

[–] [email protected] 41 points 17 hours ago* (last edited 17 hours ago)

"uKKKraine will win without a doubt (insert Estonian levels of Hitler particles)", as the Ustyluh border crossing and the town itself hoists up the Russian flag, less than 200 meters from the Polish border - Sometime in 2026, probably

Everything is still of course covered in ukkkraine, btw.

Ustyluh is a town that is roughly halfway between Lviv and the triple point between Polish, Ukraine and Belarus borders.

[–] [email protected] 51 points 19 hours ago
[–] [email protected] 52 points 19 hours ago (5 children)

Taiwan is about to take a direct hit from a cat 4 Typhoon Kong Rey.

[–] [email protected] 17 points 12 hours ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 14 points 12 hours ago
[–] [email protected] 18 points 14 hours ago

Strongest proof that Xi has the mandate of heaven

[–] [email protected] 29 points 16 hours ago (2 children)

Lol, that forecasted path this is definitely going to get the conspiracy theorists going.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 14 hours ago (1 children)

The Chinese built a giant fan

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[–] [email protected] 19 points 15 hours ago

They even made the hurricanes woke!

[–] [email protected] 41 points 18 hours ago

put the oil back in the ground sadness-abysmal

[–] [email protected] 28 points 18 hours ago

China has deployed the typhoon gun

[–] [email protected] 29 points 17 hours ago* (last edited 17 hours ago)

When this George Formby clone is performing

Audiences go home before he begins talking

I'm as bright as Brighton pier

you're rap's Piers Morgan

[–] [email protected] 95 points 21 hours ago (17 children)

For the 32nd year in a row, the United Nations votes overwhelmingly to end the US embargo on Cuba. The vote today was 187-2.

Countries voting against: United States & "Israel"

Alan Macleod Telegram

[–] [email protected] 10 points 12 hours ago

Rogue states

[–] [email protected] 29 points 18 hours ago* (last edited 18 hours ago)

Not even the fucking vassal countries of US are voting with US except israel of course, amerikkka needs to dissolve already.

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[–] [email protected] 36 points 19 hours ago* (last edited 19 hours ago)

“Sometimes a tug on the ear is a compliment,” said a Brazilian diplomatic source. On Wednesday, Caracas complained to the Brazilian chargé d'affaires about statements made by Celso Amorim, Lula's advisor, and Brazil's stance on the neighboring country's entry into the BRICS.

The Brazilian government believes that the crisis will soon cool down and relations will improve. Next year Brazil should take over the leadership of the BRICS, and by then it's possible that Venezuela will join the bloc.

Regarding the situation of the Argentine embassy in Venezuela, a country that has broken off relations with Venezuela and is under Brazilian control, it should remain the same. While the Brazilian government negotiates the arrest of Bolsonaro supporters who have fled to Argentina.

Maduro's recent comments have been seen as an attempt to shift the blame away from Lula and onto some diplomat, to avoid friction between the two leaders. Maduro also believes he is an ally of the Brazilian government, but members of the Brazilian government are trying to influence decisions against Venezuela.

In a demonstration of good relations, Russia has guaranteed the presidency of the BRICS Bank to former Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff, who will serve another term. The Venezuelan government is keen to join this bank to avoid US sanctions. The Brazilian government accused the Carter Center of acting with a bias in favor of the United States, because it did not have enough observers to confirm with complete certainty whether or not there was fraud in the Venezuelan elections. The Brazilian government also criticized the United States for imposing new sanctions and criticized the opposition for not presenting proof that it won the elections and for refusing to participate in negotiations with the government.

Seems like Maduro is pushing the blame to some guy named Eduardo Paes Saboia (he is unrelated to the Liberal Mayor of Rio de Janeiro and Ally of Lula). Maduro stopped talking about Lula in his recent note, idk if they talked via phone recently. I found a picture of this guy with Vtubers lol, he worked at the Brazilian Embassy in Japan for sometime, maybe this was because Japan and Brazil sigined a mutual free-visa agreement?

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