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Unless we see an enormous surge in voter participation. I think next year is going to be very bad. We're looking at the house, Senate, white house, & supreme Court all controlled by maga Republicans
This isn't true at all.
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The house is almost statistically guaranteed to flip back to Dems due to the legal rulings on redistricting in multiple states.
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I think people are vastly overestimating Donald Trump's chances at taking the Whitehouse off this one nebulous poll of dubious accuracy more than a year out from the election. This isn't even taking into account the fact that he is about to get fisted in Federal Court.
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The Supreme Court Justices that Donald Trump got sworn in have repeatedly refused to hear issues he has tried to bring to the court or straight up ruled against him. They still suck ass though, don't get me wrong.
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The one area that is going to be rough is the Senate
All rulings will be delayed as much as he can and appealed if it isn't what he likes.
He's going to stretch this as far as time, the legal system, and his finances allow.
All rulings will be delayed as much as he can and appealed if it isn't what he likes.
This might fly in civil court, which it has for him in the past. But even there we are starting to see less and less tolerance for delay with the on-going fraud trial.
However, this is not the case in criminal court, especially in the Federal system. I don't think people truly understand the magnitude of these Federal criminal cases. They are unquestionably the single most important criminal proceedings in modern American history, and the court will not allow its power to be minimized or manipulated.
This is so much bigger than Donald Trump. It is about the court demonstrating and further legitimizing the public perception that the power of the US criminal justice system cannot be usurped or avoided by anyone. I keep saying it, but I will say it again. When you fuck with the integrity of the system, the system will fuck you back.
I get that, but I think he's counting on Former President status and either:
- Winning in the general
- Taking any and everything to Scotus through manipulations. Note: Scotus may not be invested in delegitimizing themselves in obvious ways but... Gore v Bush, "loans," etc. They are delegitimized.
Whether this will work will depend on if he can leapfrog and at least catch a "Canon" at some point in each line and to keep his appeals running.
the white house
I'm less worried about this, but I've been wrong before.
I’m worried about it AND I’m worried of the framing that holding one branch is at all enough. Look what Rs have done in states where they want to block governors.
They really don’t care about anybody but their own tribe. They are not “conservatives” and have openly make constitution defying motions beyond the coup attempt.
They are not “conservatives”
This is the one part of your comment where you're wrong: Republicans are more genuinely conservative than they've ever been before. Conservatism is an unbroken line from Royalists to Confederates to NAZIs to MAGA, and pretenses towards it being about "cautious moderation" as opposed to "supporting hierarchical power" have always been lies.
This is fair.
I’m saying they are not acting according to the caricature of a “conservative” they hold out to get votes. And the video explains that this has been a core feature of “conservative” for a while and provides a definition of what it really is.
My fear is this. Trump's support appears to be building while Democrats are busy complaining to each other that Biden's too old. I work with guys who say, "my 401k was doing better under Trump. He's an ass but I think I'll vote for him." I'm legitimately nervous.