The nonce with unfortunately good military analysis has come and offered his thoughts on this conflict. It basically echoes everything I and others have been saying for the last ~2 months.

Scott Ritter: Hamas Winning Battle for Gaza

While the ceasefire, negotiated between Israel and Hamas by Qatar, was mutually agreed between the two parties, let no one be fooled into thinking this was anything less than a victory for Hamas. Israel had taken a very aggressive position that, given its stated objective of destroying Hamas as an organization, it would not agree to a ceasefire under any conditions. Hamas, on the other hand, had made one of its primary objectives in initiating the current round of fighting with Israel the release of Palestinian prisoners, and in particular women and children, held by Israel. Seen in this light, the ceasefire represents an important victory for Hamas, and a humiliating defeat for Israel.

One of the reasons Israel eschewed a ceasefire was that it was confident that the offensive operation it had launched into northern Gaza was going to neutralize Hamas as a military threat, and that any ceasefire, regardless of the humanitarian justification, would only buy time for a defeated Hamas enemy to rest, refit, and regroup. That Israel signed on to a ceasefire is the surest sign yet that all is not well with the Israeli offensive against Hamas.

This outcome should not have come as a surprise to anyone. When Hamas launched its October 7 attack on Israel, it initiated a plan years in the making. The meticulous attention to detail that was evident in the Hamas operation underscored the reality that Hamas had been studying the Israeli intelligence and military forces arrayed against it, uncovering weaknesses that were subsequently exploited. The Hamas action represented more than sound tactical and operational planning and execution—it was a masterpiece in strategic conceptualization as well.

One of the main reasons behind the Israeli defeat on October 7 was the fact that the Israeli government was convinced that Hamas would never attack, regardless of what the intelligence analysts charged with watching Hamas activity in Gaza were saying. This failure of imagination came about by Hamas having identified the political goals and objectives of Israel (the nullification of Hamas as a resistance organization by undertaking a policy built on “buying” Hamas through an expanded program of work permits issued by Israel for Palestinians living in Gaza.) By playing along with the work permit program, Hamas lulled the Israeli leadership into complacency, allowing Hamas' preparations for their attack to be carried out in plain view.

...

Hamas knows that it cannot engage Israel in a classic force-on-force encounter. Instead, the goal was to lure Israeli forces into Gaza, and then subject these forces to an endless series of hit-and-run attacks by small teams of Hamas fighters who would emerge from their underground lairs, attack a vulnerable Israeli force, and then disappear back underground. In short, to subject the Israeli military to what is the equivalent of a death by a thousand cuts.

And it worked. While Israeli forces have been able to penetrate into the less urbanized areas of the northern Gaza strip, taking advantage of the mobility and firepower of its armored troops, the progress is illusory, as Hamas forces harry the Israelis continuously, using deadly tandem-warhead rockets to disable or destroy Israeli vehicles, killing scores of Israeli soldiers and wounding hundreds more. While Israel has been reticent in releasing the figures of armored vehicles lost in this fashion, Hamas claims the number is in the hundreds. Hamas' claims are bolstered by the fact that Israel has halted the sale of older Merkava 3 tanks, and instead has organized their inventory of these vehicles into new reserve armor battalions to make up for the heavy losses being sustained in both Gaza and along the northern border with Lebanon, where Hezbollah forces are engaged in a deadly war of attrition with Israel in operations designed to support Hamas in Gaza.

...

While Israel may have been able to garner the support of the international community in the aftermath of the October 7 attack by Hamas, its gross overreaction has instead turned world public opinion against it—something Hamas was counting on. Today, Israel is increasingly isolated, losing support not only in the so-called Global South, but also in traditional strongholds of pro-Israeli sentiment in the US, UK, and Europe. This isolation, combined with the kind of political pressure Israel is unaccustomed to receiving, helped contribute to the Netanyahu government’s acquiescence regarding the ceasefire and subsequent prisoner exchange.

Whether the ceasefire will hold or not remains to be seen. So, too, the question of turning the ceasefire into a lasting cessation of hostilities remains an open question. But one thing is certain—having declared that victory is defined by Hamas’ total defeat, the Israelis have set the stage for a Hamas victory, something Hamas achieves simply by surviving.

But Hamas is doing more than surviving — it is winning. Having fought the Israel Defense Forces to a standstill on the battlefield, Hamas has seen every one of its strategic objectives in this conflict reach fruition. The world is actively articulating the absolute necessity of a two-state solution as a prerequisite for a lasting peace in the region. Palestinians held prisoner by Israel are being exchanged for the Israelis Hamas took hostage. And the Islamic world is united in condemning Israel’s desecration of the Al Aqsa Mosque.

None of these issues were on the table on October 6. That they are being addressed now is testament to the success Hamas enjoyed on October 7, and in the days and weeks that followed, as Israeli forces were defeated by a combination of Hamas' tenacity and their own predilection for indiscriminate violence against civilians. Far from being eliminated as a military and political force, Hamas has emerged as perhaps the most relevant voice and authority when it comes to defending the interests of the Palestinian people.

I do also want to apologize here for previous statements I made a month or so ago about how prisoner-swaps are kinda meaningless because Israel can just arrest a bunch more Palestinians. While that is true, it ignores that at least some of these prisoners are very important. A few of the current higher-ups of Hamas, including its current head, came from these prisoner swaps in the past.

Turns out the funni timeline is not funny at all and actually is pretty terrible. I don't know many things, I am a mediocre nobody who sucks at pretty much everything and will be forgotten as soon as I die. However, I am sure of one thing. Communism will win. It is inevitable. From this complete disaster, the Red Star will rise.

Without the convenient stereotype of arabs as terrorists and extremists, westerners could more easily understand that equating Hamas and ISIS is as ridiculous as equating John Brown and Francisco Franco

Roger Waters got a very warm reception to what looks like a sold out stadium in Agentina with much cheer to "if you're one of those 'I like Pink Floyd, but I hate Roger's politics' types then you can fuck off to the bar."

So there may be hope left against that supervillian.

TED TALK: “I had a stroke, I experienced ego death and collective consciousness. I realized we are one with the universe.”

ME: “I experienced that Dracula was cool.”

new Matt Christmas tweet

142 Palestinians that have died in prison (mostly children) are kept in refrigerators as a form of collective punishment and psychological torture against their families: https://nitter.net/Resist_05/status/1728320589088378933

Yemenis dancing on the 'Galaxy Leader' ship

The volcel police is antisemitic because they stop the IOF from jacking off dead soldiers

Spain’s former Minister of Social Rights, Ione Belarra:

“Netanyahu, who is a war criminal, should be held accountable before the International Criminal Court.”

Lol some dipshit crashed a 1/4 billion dollar military plane into the ocean while landing

Article about the absolute state of the Bundeswher

https://zeitung.faz.net/fas/politik/2023-11-19/e26b252ad4f98875f4842475d6ee98b1/?GEPC=s5

Google translated https://zeitung-faz-net.translate.goog/fas/politik/2023-11-19/e26b252ad4f98875f4842475d6ee98b1/?GEPC=s5&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=es&_x_tr_pto=wapp

The Bundeswehr only has around 50,000 assault rifles… not even every second soldier in the army would have a rifle.

When your comrade gets shot, you pick up his rifle.

Germany should stop talking shit about Palestine because Hezbollah could probably take them out.

new Eli Valley

The #US has asked #Hezbollah, through a third party, not to escalate the war with #Israel beyond the current level of confrontation.

It is highly unlikely that Hezbollah's response will be positive, as it will depend on Israeli violations of the ROE and control.

lol

temporary ceasefire was just signed apparently.

Hamas releases more details on Gaza truce agreement

The Palestinian group confirmed that the temporary ceasefire from both sides would last four days.

In a statement shared on Telegram, Hamas said this means that during this period:

• Israel will stop military actions in all areas of the Gaza Strip, including movement of military vehicles

• Hundreds of humanitarian aid trucks, including medical and fuel supplies, will be allowed into Gaza

• Drones in southern Gaza will stop for four days; They will stop in the North for six hours per day, between 10am-4pm local time

• During the truce period, Israel “is committed not to attack or arrest anyone in all areas of the Gaza Strip”

• Freedom of movement will be guaranteed along Salah al-Deen Street

more details

so it turns out the US-Canada border crashers were small business crackers on their way to a KISS concert

some time ago I made a joke about the F-35 being AAA game development applied to military equipment, and, uh... they're apparently releasing the F-35 in Early Access:

Upgraded F-35s fly with partial software as DOD hunts for delivery fix (archived)

WASHINGTON — The first production F-35 Joint Strike Fighter with an early, incomplete version of the software powering a key upgrade was flown last week at Lockheed Martin’s Fort Worth, Texas, facility, the company told Defense News.

The Pentagon’s F-35 Joint Program Office is considering whether a strategy of loading interim versions of the Technology Refresh 3 software into the latest F-35s might provide a way to end a months-long delivery halt, and allow the government to start accepting the latest versions of the fighter. Technology Refresh 3, or TR-3, is the name for a batch of hardware and software upgrades to the newest F-35s ... TR-3 has been stymied by software problems and difficulties integrating it with the new hardware, and its schedule has slipped significantly. It was originally expected to arrive in April but has now slipped until well into 2024, perhaps as late as next June.

When asked if this might entail using an interim or early release version of the software, the JPO said “potentially,” and that the software could be updated down the line to complete the TR-3 capabilities. “The JPO and Lockheed Martin are working with the U.S. services and international customers on potential options to deliver operationally acceptable aircraft that would most likely require future software drops for a subset of capabilities to meet all requirements,” the JPO said.

must inspire a lot of confidence to fly a plane described as "operationally acceptable"

Man, who appears to be former white house advisor Stuart Seldowitz, harasses a man in a halal cart with some of the most virulent Islamaphobia Ive seen

This is vomit inducing. Best place for the vomit would be this fucker's face.

South Africa hosting an "emergency" BRICS Summit today: https://www.africanews.com/2023/11/20/israel-hamas-war-south-africa-chairs-brics-meeting-on-gaza/

has pre-emptively recalled its ambassador to South Africa, to allow him to cope as South Africa finally looks to sever relations and has filed a claim to the ICC: https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/11/20/Israel-recalls-its-ambassador-as-South-Africa-calls-for-Israeli-embassy-closure

Has any major American media outlet reported anything happening in the West Bank during the last few days? I guess they think of the arrests and the deaths as generic "unrest" not worthy of coverage.

This jumped out at me: "At the moment, the Israeli military are arresting on average around 64 Palestinians every night in the occupied West Bank."

2m ago (01:10 GMT)

Palestinian teen killed amid ‘intensification’ of Israeli raids in occupied West Bank: Correspondent

Charles Stratford reporting from Ramallah, occupied West Bank

The death of a 17-year-old youth happened during one of a number of raids in and around the city of Nablus in the north of the occupied West Bank.

We’ve seen video of the body of that youth being carried by friends and family and supporters after he was killed.

These are just the latest raids that now happen every night right the way across the West Bank – another indication of the intensification of Israeli military raids and attempts to arrest Palestinians since the Hamas raids on October 7.

At the moment, the Israeli military are arresting on average around 64 Palestinians every night in the occupied West Bank and the latest death of that 17-year-old youth in Nablus means that there have now been 227 [Palestinians] killed since October 7.

- Al Jazeera

What are our comrades reading?

Argentina’s Javier Milei backs away from dollarisation as central bank pick rejects role

the man named to lead Argentina’s central bank by libertarian president-elect Javier Milei has turned down the job over policy differences, amid signs that the South American nation’s maverick next leader is backing away from his flagship policy of dollarising the sickly economy.

Emilio Ocampo, an economic history professor and former investment banker, was the leading advocate within Milei’s team of dumping the Argentine peso in favour of the US dollar. The author of a recent paper advocating dollarisation, he had been working on a blueprint to implement the plan after the new government takes office on December 10.

But a person close to Ocampo confirmed on Thursday night local news reports that he would no longer accept the post.

“The only reason for Ocampo to be at the [central bank] was to dollarise,” the person said. “He was never going to the central bank to implement someone else’s plan, which he doesn’t agree with.

looks like the national capitalists (probably led by macri) forced him to drop his idea for dollarization, they will probably also block his anti-brics+ policies too

The central bank is struggling to find buyers for short-term peso-denominated debt that it issues to suck local currency out of the system, signalling that its efforts to contain inflation are flagging in the face of market uncertainty.

looks like this is the main reason, makes no sense to buy debt in a currency that isnt going to exist for long, even with how weak the argentine peso is its lets the national capitalists control the economy, dollarization would have let to the international capitalist to take over the argentine economy and eliminating most national capitalists like it happen on Mexico with the TLCAN.

Cant for for anarcho-capitalism to be blamed for every neoliberal policy failure that Milei will be forced to keep by his coalition

🇾🇪 Senior AnsarAllah political bureau member does a little trolling and says:

“Yemenis are known for their generousness, when they have a guest and another guest arrives, the first guest 🛳 [first ship: Galaxy Leader] welcomes the new guest 🚢 [Second ZIM ship]”

twitter | nitter

sounds like the mad lads did take another ship

The Hebrew "Wala" website, quoting the families of Israeli prisoners released yesterday:

"They have not been subjected to any assault since their detention & they were treated humanely in Gaza & they did not go through the horror stories that we imagined they were experiencing"

twitter - nitter

🛑🇾🇪 Muhammad al-Houthi, member of the AnsarAllah political bureau, said:

When Israel & the US stop the war in Gaza, then it will be possible to talk about the ship that was detained by Yemen, in the Red Sea.

from Mr. Houthi himself

Netanyahu is threatening that they will ‘deal with Yemen’

Meanwhile Yemenis:

least based Yemenis

Yemeni Navy Commander makes visit to seized "Israeli" ship

Yemeni Navy Commander meets with and speaks to the crew of the seized "Israeli" ship

"You are our guests here in Yemen... You can see Yemen as your country"

god I wish I was on that ship

🚨 Abu Obeida:

A force of 25 elite Qassam fighters launched an attack in which they destroyed an APC and attacked an infantry force barricading in a school.

A tank and APC that came to rescue the force were also destroyed, and a number of Zionist soldiers were eliminated.

More detail:

- APC was hit, & Zionist force hiding in a school was attacked with TBG and automatic rounds.

- A tank & APC rushed to aid.

- 4 troops emerged from the APC, were liquidated at point-blank.

- The airforce bombed the site.

- 1 fighter was martyred; 24 returned safely.

can't wait for the video

Israel bombed the historic Church of Saint George in the town of Yaroun, South Lebanon.

Only Israel can systematically drop bombs on churches, hospitals, schools and UN shelters in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon, and the “civilized” Western world won’t even bat an eyelash.

The resistance is using recordings of children to bait and ambush the IDF... and its working.

this can't be real lmao

X-Files episode where Mulder investigates suspiciously anal-probed corpses in Israel.

Two Palestinian students have been shot in Vermont. Hisham Awartani and Kenan Abdelhamid. In the chest and in the back.

No declaration of a hate crime by police yet. The two men are in surgery still. They’re undergraduate students at Brown university and Haverford.

twitter | nitter

Three injured in Burlington shooting, no suspects identified 3 shot apparently?

People don't understand how much destruction in Gaza the Israeli army caused. Wait until journalists are able to reach the areas that have been out of reach for along time now. The situation is beyond catastrophic in Gaza. Ceasefire now.

Nitter

Antisemitism is fast becoming normalised.

German police say they have raided the homes of members and supporters of Hamas and Samidoun, another Palestinian organisation that is banned in the country.

About 500 members of the security forces led the operation, with 13 places searched in the capital Berlin, the interior ministry said.

Four other regions were targeted to a lesser extent as police seized smartphones, laptops and various writings, the ministry added.

"We are carrying out action against radical Islamists," Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said earlier on Thursday.

"By banning Hamas and Samidoun in Germany, we have sent a clear signal that we will not tolerate any apology or support for Hamas's barbaric terror against Israel.

"Islamists and ant-Semites must not feel safe anywhere."

Germany on November 2 banned Hamas and Samidoun.

According to official figures, Germany hosts an estimated 450 members of Hamas, proscribed as a "terrorist" organisation by the European Union, the United States and Israel.

The ministry said that while Hamas members had not staged "violent action" in Germany so far, they had tried to raise funds to help the group overseas and "influence the social and political discourse in Germany".

It said Samidoun on the other hand was "prone to use violence … and denies the right of Israel to exist".

very cool and normal

Responsible Statecraft: Pentagon fails sixth audit in a row

On Wednesday, Pentagon Comptroller Mike McCord revealed that the Department of Defense had failed its sixth audit in a row, with no significant improvements over the last year. “We are working hard to address audit findings as well as recommendations from the Government Accountability Office,” McCord said in a statement. “The Components are making good progress resulting in meaningful benefits, but we must do more.”

In a repeat of last year’s audit, just one in four of the Pentagon’s auditing units received a clean bill of financial health, though auditors made some progress in accounting for the agency’s $3.8 billion in assets. McCord said that a clean audit likely remains years away, according to Reuters. The Pentagon remains the only federal agency to have never passed an audit. Its failure to make significant progress has drawn scrutiny from lawmakers, including Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who called for an independent audit of the department.

The Republican-led House Oversight Committee also slammed the Pentagon for its financial troubles, arguing in a post on X that the department’s “inability to adequately track assets risks our military readiness and represents a flagrant disregard for taxpayer funds, even as it receives nearly a trillion dollars annually.”

Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) said the news showed that it’s “time to stop misdirecting hundreds of billions of dollars away from domestic and human needs to pad unnecessary budget lines for endless wars, failed weapons, & the Pentagon’s corporate handouts.”

The news could reinvigorate efforts to impose a 1 percent budget cut on any parts of the military that fail an audit, a policy that would “provide a much greater incentive to get financial books in order,” according to Jennifer Knox of the Union of Concerned Scientists.

I propose a 100% budget cut on any part of the military that fails an audit. And also on the parts that succeed an audit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67508560

David Cameron is one of the few western politicians saying things like

It is vitally important that we demonstrate to the Palestinian people, to the world, that we want to help. Those people need food, they need water, they need medicine

it's fucked when David fucking Cameron is the best of the cabinet about Gaza lol. and he's a fucking demon

(I called it)

The last sight of many a commie

"Im crashing this country with no survivors"

The occupation fliers that were thrown at gaza are now wrapping papers for manakeesh zaatar

At least the left is gonna get their "But Venezuela" with Argentina

Bad empanada is my idol, man is fedposting at Milei rn, actually could get a visit by the police lmao https://nitter.net/badempanada/status/1726411197111501302
https://twitter.com/badempanada/status/1726411197111501302