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this post was submitted on 07 Jul 2024
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Look, I don't like Biden, either, but unless you have a name of a candidate we're all supposed to rally behind an elect via acclamation at the convention, what's the point in attacking the presumptive nominee?
Same thing I told you last night bro.
You asked literally the same question, and I responded with this:
Conclusion: Sticking with Biden, becomes the worst chance at beating trump.
Don't worry about anything else, just look at that logic.
Can you find any flaw in it?
But just so you don't keep asking:
AOC
But again. All we're talking about who can beat Trump. And if that logic up there isn't something you disagree with, let me know. Just stripping this all down to a pure logic thing.
I'm optimistic this will work.
There are actual congress-people talking about a mini primary for Democrats, and that by having something like that right now is going to dominate national news for the party, which right before an election is really good thing. Democrats could even spin it as "We're listening to you-- you want a younger candidate? We're gonna give you one," rather than "We are in complete disarray regarding this upcoming election." Regardless, whichever nominee makes it out of those is going to have plenty of name recognition by the end of it.
This is not a ridiculous or far-fetched notion, it is being spit-balled right now by congresspeople. Everything hinges on Biden, so we'll just have to see how his polls look like next week, if any other major voices join in the calls for him to step aside, and how the crises meetings in Congress go.
But Im not sure how people downvoting you are so confident in Biden or why they're so baffled about this whole thing. Like, "Who's could possibly be the nominee of it's not Biden?" Oh I dunno, one of the 15 names national news outlets have been proposing for the last week?
Not really. The DNC is a private non government organization that can do whatever they want
They could say they're putting Taylor Swift on the ballot, and I don't even think they need their candidates permission.
They just won't choose to boot Biden if he doesn't drop.
I believe the distinction is important.
Yeah, at this point I just saved that comment with the logic broken down, and that's what I'm using when I get asked "BuT wHo?". Because fuck, I get asked that a lot.
That account didn't reply last night, asked the same fucking question less than 12 hours later... And isn't going to answer now either.
Because there is literally no logical reason for Biden to be the candidate.
What I think, is they only care about 100% support to Israel. trump isn't reliable enough, and if Russia gets pulled in by the 4+1 treaty...
I don't know how anyone could think trump would side with Israel over Russia. He'd turn on Israel and Ukraine both in a heartbeat.
Israel is the only logical reason someone would insist on Biden, they just know if they said it, it would just hurt Biden more. So they can't give a single valid reason for their insistence in Biden.
It does matter if Biden decides to stay in. It makes it far less likely the DNC is able to replace him, because the delegates are already pledged to him, and as far as I understand, in order to replace him they'd need a clear alternative singular candidate to nominate. Plus, they'd need to stop Biden from reviewing and selecting a loyal slate of delegates from each state who will certainly vote for him. It'd be much much more likely if Biden steps down and himself calls for a 5 or 6 week primary. My source, if you want to check it out. There's a chance I'm misinterpreting but I think that's the jist of it.
As for those people rigorously defending Biden, I don't necessarily think they're automatically pro-Israel. They're scared, for sure, as we all are. And they've probably bought some of, if not all, the Democratic posturing that Biden is just fine, and other writers' sentiments that doing something like changing the nominee last-minute will be a disaster because it is unprecedented, and so they double down. Like a superfan in sports who is in complete denial that their team has a glaring weakness and probably won't make it out of the playoffs. You see it all the time. I won't ever hold it against those people, because it's easy to be in that state, especially if you love your team. Plus, if you logic it out with them, sometimes they come around and end up seeing the roster change was actually needed. I don't think deriding them gives them a chance to see your side.
What?
Obviously at the end of the day they'd need to nominate one person as the candidate.
The DNC can come up with that name themselves, they can do a primary/survey/whatever for voter input or not.
But yes, eventually they have to name a candidate regardless of if that's Biden or not.
Delegates may be pledged, and current rules may say they need to vote for who they're pledged to.
But the DNC can just change that rule this afternoon if they wanted to.
As in, they'd all have to come to a consensus on one candidate other than Biden, and that's just not a likely thing to happen without Biden stepping aside voluntarily.
I just don't see the DNC changing rules to choose someone besides Biden, even if that is technically possible. I could see them adding rules for what happens to delegates if a presumptive nominee steps aside before the convention. But hey, I'm a regular person who read a single article on DNC rules and listens to NPR Politics Podcast. Those kinds of analyses aren't going to delve too far into the, "well, what if the DNC changes the rules, holds a mini primary without Biden, etc, etc." because they either think they aren't likely, or because it is simply too early to tell which way things will move as of today.
They don't to change the rules...
And they can change it to:
But you're talking about what they're likely to do, but were phrasing it as what they can do.
I'm talking about what they literally can do.
They can do a whole hell of a lot. They're just not taking the threat seriously enough and willing to run Biden because even if he loses, the status quo at the DNC remains the same. All the same people get another 4 years in power of one of the only two major political parties in America.
Sure, but I don't think they have as much power as you're making out, not because they don't technically have that power, but because of the consequences of using it. I.e. the moderate establishment democratic party. I think there are political interests in place that prevent what you're talking about from happening.
Bruh...
Who do you think is the majority power in the DNC if not
Like, you're arguing a group of people won't do something because the same group of people don't want it to happen.
I'm trying to explain that means they could do if they wanted...
The only difference is you're acting like it's two groups of people and not literally the exact same people.
I suppose the difference in our line of thinking is that you see it as one united entity, whereas I see it as a lot of divided individuals. There is no consensus in the Democratic party right now regarding Biden's candidacy, so it might as well be two groups of people. Yeah, they could do it they wanted to. The problem is, they don't all want to. There are many interests in play, which is a shame because the stakes of the election, but it's just the truth. Case Biden.
Also, I get we're on the Internet, but it's pretty rude to bruh everything someone says. Pretending like what I'm saying is somehow an egregious leap of logic doesn't actually lend itself to your side of the conversation. And if it is a leap of logic and you correct me, I'm much more likely to be swayed to your side if you're conversationally curious rather than combative. Just saying.
Psst: a "mini-primary" is just an election among DNC delegates. You know, the thing they have to do anyway. And 99% of those delegates were named by Biden's campaign, and will do what he directs them to do.
It might generate a televised debate, but all that will do is show off the back bench of the party for 2032 (or 2028 if Harris loses). If Biden backs out, Harris will be the nominee, and no amount of Progressive whining will change that.
Moderate Democrats are like vegetables, nobody really looks forward to them but they give you energy to fight Fascism. Eat your peas!
Biden personally nominated the DNC chair and appoints 47 (maybe 77?) voting seats, then the DNC votes to confirm the chair the incoming president appointed.
And there's around 470 voting positions in the DNC.
So, Biden isn't appointing the majority. But the vast majority are establishment Dems who agree with Biden 100% and would rather see trump as president than progressive leadership of the DNC.
Bruh...
In 2012 progressives voted for Obama despite him not being as progressive as he campaigned in 08...
In 2016 progressives held their noses and voted Clinton...
In 2020 we held our noses and voted for Biden....
In 2024 progressives will largely show up and vote D, whether it's Biden, Harris, or anyone else. Just like what has been happening for decades.
What progressives have been screaming since 2019 is that Biden isnt really popular and he isn't our best shot to stop trump. And we need to run our best bet that we've been saying since 2015.
The problem is moderates decided on Biden, and they're used to always getting exactly what they want. That's why they fight against Kamala so hard despite like 99% of her and Biden's domestic policy likely being identical.
Moderates will still get what they want, they're just not used to any kind of compromise inside the Dem party.
When people say Biden can't win, were talking about the "non party" voters that allowed Biden to squeak thru last year. People that just "stay out of" politics and are the entire reason political campaign exist and Biden needs billions of dollars to beat Trump.
But instead of talking about how to get those votes like responsible adults, moderates just want a slap fight and for everyone to shut up and vote as told.
The big issue is, no metrics or data looks like Biden will win. I don't think a president has ever been elected with an approval rating as low as Biden.
I don't think you understand just how bad a 34% approval rating is for an incumbent...
You're missing my point entirely. The party is not going to move further left all of a sudden. Moderates get what they want because there are more of them in the party, and also the the mythical "Swing Voter" who prophecies say will swing the election will be a moderate, once we find one.
And this "mini-primary" is not really what you think it is, the delegates to the convention are already set and pledged to Biden (for now). Those delegates will be voting on the nominee, who will either be Biden or his hand-picked successor. Those delegates will not vote for Mayor Pete or AOC, no matter how badly progressives want it.
Biden's candidacy is not in jeopardy because of his moderate policies, it's because time has caught up with him. If he backs out, his replacement will not be any less moderate. Get over it. There will be no progressive White Knight to sweep the country out of the Jaws of Capitalism.
I agree with that, and no one is saying any differently...
They should to maximize chances to beat Trump. But we all know that's not the priority
Well, the poster I was replying to (who wasn't you) was pointing out the mini-primary as an opportunity to avoid Biden and Harris and pick someone with no chance in the general election, but who passed their Progressive purity tests. I was pointing out that the "mini-primary" is just a rebrand of the same convention roll call among delegates that the party already uses, to make it sound more inclusive. And most of those delegates were picked by the Biden campaign.
What the heck dude, that's not true. I think you may have misinterpreted me. I never said a mini primary was an opportunity for a progressive candidate to slip in there, or anything about some weird progressive purity test. Jeez. I mean, I'd obviously prefer a more progressive candidate, but I'm in agreement with you that if for whatever reason Biden steps aside, it's almost certainly going to be Harris or another, (relatively) young moderate.
I said the mini primary was being spit balled in Congress, so the idea of Biden not being the nominee is not out of the realm of reality. That was my point, not that Democrats have to throw AOC or Buttigieg in order to win, or that it is even remotely likely they'll do that. It's not.
Ok. My bad on that. I lose track of all the unrealistic people here.
But regardless, the "mini-primary" is just branding for what the convention does anyway. Delegates have always picked the nominee. Some congressman floated that as an excuse to have a public debate, which will be held solely to show us all how awesome Harris is, and perhaps to help her pick her running mate. But the delegates will always have the last word, and they have already been chosen.
It's all good. Honestly I think if a debate gets media attention for Dems, I'm all for it. Even if it's just performative for Harris publicity, even though I'm not thrilled about her, I think the media attention and getting her name out there would be a good thing for November. Obviously that's all a huge "if" depending on Biden being in or out, which if I had to guess, this whole conversation will be moot in 7 weeks.
I agree that the few people who actually want Biden personally wouldn't vote for a progressive, or even anyone besides Kamala.
It's just they're a tiny tiny subset of the Dem party
Do you remember the 08 Puma movement?
Not only were they so statistically insignificant that Obama didn't lose many votes, his progressive campaign picked up so many traditional non-voters there's a couple red states who only went blue for that election in the last 50 some years. Despite everything moderates claim about how people want moderate policy, what flips red states is young charismatic candidate running progressive campaigns.
So while I think it'll be Kamala and her 29% approval rating, and I do think she has a better chance than Biden, neither are as good as bets of someone like Pete or Whitmere. Who still aren't progressive, just too far left for the DNC.
However just the existence of a mini primary would pull whoever the candidate is (even Biden if he participated) to the left and help beat Trump in the general.
I think it's likely Harris would be the nominee if Biden stepped aside, unless they are spooked by her polls, as well. But that is a lot of ifs, and really doesn't bear much weight on the likelihood as I see it (and hate it) of Biden staying in the race and losing to Trump.
But yeah, that's why it mostly hinges on Biden, because the DNC has rules in place to protect the presumptive nominee from a delegate mutiny.