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The difference is Biden unpopularity is due to uncertainty while trumps is due to EXTREME certainty that he’s a piece of garbage
Which I don't understand. I'm certain Biden won't institute project 2025 so the choice should be obvious.
Worst case scenario for Biden is he's mostly absent and his cabinet has to guide him through policies making the Democratic party mostly in control.
Which is pretty much exactly what Trump's first term was adding in a lot of grift and pointless spite.
If you narrow your scope to just the presidency maybe. The real worst case scenario is he completely fails to run an effective campaign and creates a huge red wave sweeping a big group of fascists into power.
He doesn't need a wave of them. He just needs to let this one in and it's all over.
Again, though, see how successful humphries was in 68. Don't change horses.
When the horse is dead you will not ride anywhere with it, period.
At least since half a year serious people talk about the fact that Biden is becoming too old for office and shows dementia. The DNC had a good year and quite frankly they should have already planned Bidens succession the moment he got into office. It was clear on Jan 6 that they need a new generation that can inspire and has the strength to fight against the Reps.
Now with every week passing Biden will show more and more that he is an old man whose mental capacities are diminishing at an alarming rate. Staying on this horse is a guaranteed win for the Republicans. Heck, even if Biden was voted in, he'll die of natural causes or become a vegetable within the next year. This will be a prime moment for the Reps to tear apart whatever Dem administration would try to emerge from that.
The only solution is a change of generation in the DNC. The old cabal will hand the nation over to fascism otherwise.
I think there is a world of difference between a Trump presidency with a democratic house and senate and a Republican supermajority. While both of these are unlikely, how close we are to one or the other will make a big difference in how effective the fascist takeover will be.
I personally think Trump is likely to win no matter who the candidate but having a stronger candidate will have a meaningful effect on other races that matter greatly.
Humphrey is only a single data point. We can’t draw much of a conclusion from a single event. Maybe Humphrey lost due to the nomination process but I think it’s more likely he was just a weaker candidate. Particularly regarding his pro-Vietnam war stance which was very controversial at the time.