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So you don’t like Trump or Harris – here’s why it’s still best to vote for one of them
(theconversation.com)
this post was submitted on 10 Oct 2024
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politics
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"Instead, protest voting is in fact likely to harm the democratic process, potentially leading to the election of the candidate the majority of voters overall, and protest voters specifically, most dislike."
^ THIS!
In a Presidential election, whoever gets the most votes wins.
If "Not Trump" is split between 5 candidates, and Trump gets the most votes, he wins.
Here's a scenario:
Trump - 40%
Harris - 35%
Kennedy - 15%
Oliver - 5%
Stein - 3%
West - 2%
Trump wins. Even though 60% of the voting public don't want him. The "Not Trump" vote failed to coalesce under one candidate enough to block him from winning.
On the other side of the Atlantic there's usually two rounds, unless someone gets >50% of the vote in the first round.
The second round takes the top two candidates and then people choose between them.
Well I mean I don't know of all European countries but this is fairly common afaik.
This is what I keep saying. It's like my scenario with the Class President. A Nerd and a Jock are running. 51 kids are nerds and don't want the Jock. 49 kids are jocks and don't want the Nerd. Pretty clear that the Nerd wins, because more people don't want the Jock than the Nerd, right? Wrong. If the Jock can peel just THREE votes off from the nerd coalition, the Jocks win it and D&D night is cancelled.
Now re-read that and replace nerds with Liberals, jocks with Conservatives, and 'D&D night is cancelled' with 'Project 2025 is shoved down our throats.' Then...vote with your fucking head and not your fucking heart!
It's like this, but Jocks' votes are worth more than Nerds'.
Definitely. I tried to keep the scenario simple to make it easy to understand, but there is truth in the statement that the jocks have some fingers on the scale of Democracy. I suspect there's more nerds than jocks. We just have to make sure they all turn out to vote because the cheerleader that is the jock's politician is pulling out ALL the dirty tricks.
In this scenario, why are we assuming that the 25% that are voting third party would prefer Harris over Trump?
Because we're able to discuss hypothetical things without being literal to prove a point.
That would be fine, if that's what was happening, but it's not. The commentor that i responded to, as well as the article that we are all responding to, use this "hypothetical" situation where third party voters all prefer Harris over Trump to justify a chastisement of those third party votes. There is no basis for this assumption presented in the article or within the comments in this thread.
E: added the word "be" to the 1st sentence.
Well, if hypothetically, I was forced to vote, and thn for only one of these 2 parties only... well, I'm not a rich white guy, I'm not racist, misogynistic, don't believe sharpies change weather... and, I don't want to find out just how close he would be to starting the next Nazi party. That narrows my options down a bit.
I mean.. thanks for the input, but you're just one person. I too would choose Harris over Trump if i was forced to choose between the two. But your and my personal choices to not a general consensus make. I wouldn't argue that the majority of 3rd party voters would do likewise without some proof.
.. none of this addresses that third party voters may find it more important to vote against BOTH parties than to vote against their least favorite of the two, either.. but i've raised that point elsewhere.
If you just don't understand the concept of hypotheticals, you may be on the spectrum, fyi
Don't use being on the spectrum as an insult. It is unbecoming.
I don't think hypothetical means what you think it means. Either that or you are misunderstanding or misrepresenting what the article is arguing.
The article is implies that 3rd party voters are all Harris > Trump voters if it came down to a choice between the two. That is not a hypothetical, that is an unsubstantianted assumption.
It's not an insult, I'm being serious. The hypothetical is the vote totals given in the comment you responded to. In that hypothetical scenario, voting for your perfect candidate gets your least favorite candidate elected. You seem unable to consider it as a standalone scenario that may or may not be similar to real life voter tallies. That's a common indicator of neurodivergence.
Whether they would prefer Harris or not is irrelevant, they don't want Trump. There is only 1 candidate who can beat the Republican candidate and it's not an Independent/Libertarian/Green candidate.
I don't understand your response. I asked why we are assuming these voters prefer Harris over Trump and you responded by saying that their preference for Harris is irrelevant, because they don't want Trump.
This doesn't make any sense.
"don't want Trump" in this context MUST equate to a preference for Harris over Trump. And my whole question is "why are we assuming these voters hold that preference?"
I'll try to make it simple then:
They aren't pro-Harris, they're anti-Trump.
Problem: "Not Trump" is not a candidate, so splitting the not Trump vote allows Trump to win.
If people really, REALLY, REALLY do not want Trump, there's only one answer and that's to support the Democratic candidate who happens to be Harris.
Why Harris? Because she has more support than any other "Not Trump" candidate.
I do not think this makes it simpler. It just makes the same assumption over again. That assumption being that third party voters are largely anti-Trump (or pro-Harris; take your pick, it doesn't matter). My question remains. I'll rephrase it:
Why are we assuming that if all third party voters were to instead vote for one of the two main candidates that Harris would take more of those votes than Trump?
Because that, in essence is what the article assumes.
Because if they were interested in voting for Trump, they'd be voting for Trump. When the choice is Trump vs. Not Trump, Not Trump wins. Even in 2016 that was true.
What the other person is saying is that you are splitting voters in three categories: pro-Trump, pro-Harris, anti-Trump. But that third group obviosuly doesn't like either of the two main candidates, not just Trump. And if forced to vote for one of them, there's no reason to assume all will pick Harris.
Nope. Harris doesn't enter into it. There are two sides, Pro Trump and Anti Trump.
If you want Anti Trump to win, you have to pull behind one candidate. Splitting it 5 ways guarantees Anti Trump cannot win.
There is only one candidate who happens to be at the same level as Trump, the Democratic candidate.
Which means holding your nose and voting for Harris, failing to do so gets you Trump. You don't have to be Pro Harris at all, you just have to hate Trump more.
Ok, I get what you are saying, but it sounds biased the way you're wording it. You could've just as well said Pro Harris and Anti Harris. Trump is the only one who can realistically beat Harris, so if you're Anti Harris you should vote Trump, even if you're not Pro Trump.
So yeah, if you're Anti Trump you should vote Harris and if you're Anti Harris you should vote Trump. If you're Anti both of them then tough luck because the electoral system in the US doesn't care about you. One of them will be president no matter what you do, so if you want any control over which one, then vote for one of them even if you hate both.
Agreed.
Would it be nicer if we lived in a multi party system? Probably. Do we? No. Voting as though we are is not useful (maybe unless you live in a state that you are 100% certain can not be flipped).
If you hate one candidate even slightly less than the other, for example because the former has not yet stated that they want to punish colleges that allow pro Palestine demonstrations, vote for that first one.
Harris isn't the threat to the American system of government that Trump is.
A poll in which "First choice is someone other than Trump" beats "Trump" would indicate that "Trump" has less than 50% of the vote. The same can be said of Harris.
A poll in which "Anybody but Trump" beats "Trump" would indicate that third party voters do indeed favor Harris over Trump.
Do we have any polling of the second type? I am not able to find any. This type of polling would be exactly what i've been asking for in this thread.