electoralism

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US Election Day November 2024 Containment Megathread (hexbear.net)

submitted 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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put all of your election posting here so it doesn't bother anyone else!

from @[email protected]:

For Agitprop purposes, I’m asking comrades to help aggregate any and all effortpost responses, critiques, or general thoughts that you have seen or written pertaining to yesterday’s U.S. election that you think have standalone value for discussion either online or IRL.

I made a post for that purpose here, and ideally it can be used not only for general discussion, but as a reference for well thought out responses in discussions about the election to save all of us some brainpower.

No shitposts please, as we’d like to highlight some comrades’ actual effort in constructing responses or analysis, but humor is 100% welcome to help make your point!

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[–] [email protected] 27 points 1 month ago (2 children)

I am absolutely with you, polls dont mean shit its all bullshit

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 month ago

i dont get why libs have so much faith in a poll from iowa, like they arent even a swing state

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 month ago (2 children)

People always treat polls like an almost divine revelation or like they're horse crap. They're just a ballpark estimate based on calling people. They'll be roughly correct +/-3% so they can't tell you one way or the other unless it's a damn near certainty and even then with the electoral college they don't really matter nationally. They're a flawed tool but they can still be a useful one under the right conditions. Just don't treat them like they come from God like newscasters do.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Truly, how do they even do these polls in the clusterfuck state of information transversal? Landlines, text messages, online shit?

I would be very curious to compare the accuracy of polls pre-21st century to what we’re dealing with today

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 month ago

Truly, how do they even do these polls in the clusterfuck state of information transversal? Landlines, text messages, online shit?

Depends on the polls really. Mostly calling people and having nerds figure out the best way to call people. How many in this or that zip code and trying to keep track of the response rate. Online polls do happen but aren't as reliable because on the internet nobody knows you're a dog.

I would be very curious to compare the accuracy of polls pre-21st century to what we’re dealing with today

I would too. I remember on the 538 website they had the favorablility tracker for Trump/Biden and you could see other presidential terms. It seemed like there were barely any polls for like Truman so it was really blocky for the first few post war presidents. It probably just took time for people to get phones and for pollsters to get setup. Regardless, they were probably about as reliable if they had good methodology.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago

they come from God like newscasters do.

Pointing, screamng "THE AMERICAN CIVIC RELIGION! THE AMERICAN CIVIC RELIGION!"

A bunch of technocrat wonks using arcane statistics methods to tell the future is extremely on the nose for ACR beliefs.