this post was submitted on 03 Nov 2024
186 points (97.4% liked)
electoralism
22039 readers
50 users here now
Welcome to c/electoralism! politics isn't just about voting or running for office, but this community is.
Please read the Chapo Code of Conduct and remember...we're all comrades here.
Shitposting in other comms please!
founded 4 years ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
Being totally jokerfied on this election is liberating
Despite the recent polls, I still think Trump is gonna win. In fact, I will lock that in as my final prediction.
Actually the polls are in favor of Trump winning according to 538:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
I am absolutely with you, polls dont mean shit its all bullshit
i dont get why libs have so much faith in a poll from iowa, like they arent even a swing state
People always treat polls like an almost divine revelation or like they're horse crap. They're just a ballpark estimate based on calling people. They'll be roughly correct +/-3% so they can't tell you one way or the other unless it's a damn near certainty and even then with the electoral college they don't really matter nationally. They're a flawed tool but they can still be a useful one under the right conditions. Just don't treat them like they come from God like newscasters do.
Truly, how do they even do these polls in the clusterfuck state of information transversal? Landlines, text messages, online shit?
I would be very curious to compare the accuracy of polls pre-21st century to what we’re dealing with today
Depends on the polls really. Mostly calling people and having nerds figure out the best way to call people. How many in this or that zip code and trying to keep track of the response rate. Online polls do happen but aren't as reliable because on the internet nobody knows you're a dog.
I would too. I remember on the 538 website they had the favorablility tracker for Trump/Biden and you could see other presidential terms. It seemed like there were barely any polls for like Truman so it was really blocky for the first few post war presidents. It probably just took time for people to get phones and for pollsters to get setup. Regardless, they were probably about as reliable if they had good methodology.
Pointing, screamng "THE AMERICAN CIVIC RELIGION! THE AMERICAN CIVIC RELIGION!"
A bunch of technocrat wonks using arcane statistics methods to tell the future is extremely on the nose for ACR beliefs.
It’s weird because a rational part of me is saying it’ll likely be Kamala with a slight lead but another part of me is saying Trump will surprise again. I said Trump would win 2016 and Biden in 2020 but this one is just so much harder to predict.
My prediction right when they chose Harris was that it will be a coin flip, and it seems like I'm mostly correct. I also felt like any other Democrat (except for Clinton lmao) would beat Trump pretty hard. But they chose Harris, which means she has to deal with Biden's administration as baggage. No amount of "distancing" means anything since she didn't invoke the 25th amendment. A big brain move would be if she actually did invoke the 25th amendment or put on a staged performance of threatening to invoke the 25th amendment.
Don't you know the Vice President can't go against the President? I've been told by libs it's illegal or something.
Yeah I think it'll be trump as well. Kamala is the incumbent no matter what anyone says. Americans will blame her for how things are at the moment and she will suffer for that. Changing the face on the poster doesn't change the color of the party.
We should use our hard-earned xibucks on the bets so we can have some excitement.
I have a legal case open against Xi before the NLRB for non-payment of Xibucks dating back to 2020.
The bookies seem to favor Trump https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
I'm not even prognosticating. It's not worth it. There's no way at this juncture to tell who will be "worse" or what they'll even do with an absolute mandate to exterminate anyone and everyone.