this post was submitted on 26 Jan 2024
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chapotraphouse
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Wrong about the beginning of events, but correct about their trajectory once they have begun
But often only because we go "No, that won't happen, that would be stupid and counterproductive for the West" but then they just do the thing anyway and so we just go "...okay, well, they're gonna lose then"
I think the skepticism toward the invasion of Ukraine was completely correct and valid, we just forgot we live in hell world.
It was a Thatcher bombing situation. The libs crying wolf about Russia only have to get lucky once, we have to get lucky every single time. They like to forget that they were howling about an imminent Russian invasion for months and even US analysts no longer considered it plausible. And then it happened.
i mean the specific miscalculation was basically not accounting for the Putin government having any motivations beyond the national interest of Russia.